The key races that could decide control of the Senate

Judy Woodruff:

We're just a month out from election night, and all eyes are on a few consequential races playing out across the country. Control of the Senate is on the line this midterm cycle, with 35 seats up for election. Republicans need to net just one seat to regain the majority in the Upper Chamber.

Today, we will be diving into three key toss-up races in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.

To talk about where things stand in these Senate contests, I'm joined by Stephen Fowler of Georgia Public Broadcasting, Katie Meyer with Spotlight PA and Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent.

Welcome to all three of you. We are watching these races so closely.

Stephen Fowler in Georgia, let me start with you, because there is this big headline right now in the race between Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock. And that is one of Herschel Walker's former girlfriends alleging that she had an abortion in 2009, that he paid for it.

What is he saying about this? How is it affecting the race?

Stephen Fowler, Georgia Public Broadcasting:

Well, Herschel Walker is categorically denying every allegation that's in there. In fact, he threatened to sue the news outlet The Daily Beast that reported this, but no lawsuit has yet been filed.

And it really has roiled a race that has in — within the margin of error for many polls that have come out. There are some on the left, the Democrats, that say it's hypocrisy, and it's more examples that Herschel Walker is not equipped to be a U.S. senator. But many Republicans, by and large, are sticking by Walker. They're saying that it's a smear put out by Democrats and the media and that Herschel Walker, at the end of the day, is a Republican and would be or could be the 51st seat that they need to have that majority.

So they're standing by him in this crucial moment.

Judy Woodruff:

So that's even though The Daily Beast has provided a receipt, they have provided — they have shown a card that he sent this woman, and even though his son is publicly denouncing him?

Stephen Fowler:

Right. I mean, it's one thing to say that Democrats are attacking the campaign, but Herschel Walker's own son, 23-year-old Christian Walker, who's a very outspoken conservative commentator, posted videos and tweets attacking his father, saying that he was a liar, alleging that there was family violence involved in his childhood.

And, still, the campaign has seemed to just push forward. In fact, they said that they raised more money than they'd ever raised in the aftermath of the story and are putting out fund-raising calls saying that they're trying to be attacked over this baseless story.

So it's really a remarkable evolution in politics from what would be a campaign-ending story many cycles ago.

Judy Woodruff:

And now you're right, so interesting how that's being received by the voters.

Katie Meyer, to you in Pennsylvania. This race had been seen as an advantage for the Democrat, John Fetterman. But I see The Cook Political Report now says it's a toss-up, with the other — of course, the Republican being Mehmet Oz, television's Dr. Oz.

What's going on there? What are the dynamics right now?

Katie Meyer, Spotlight Pennsylvania:

Yes.

So, I mean, this race was always going to be pretty close. It's just sort of the political patterns that we usually see. It's not supposed to be a very good year for Democrats, based on what we usually think. The president's party tends to do worse down-ballot the year after, the midterm after he's elected.

So, with that in mind, Fetterman had outperformed expectations. His polling looked really strong. He did have a stroke right at the beginning of this general election cycle. And what you have seen now is his favorability ratings going down a little bit as Oz has gotten a lot of support from mainstream Republicans and has begun fund-raising and advertising really, really heavily against Fetterman across the state.

So what you have seen is a real consolidation of effort to paint Fetterman as, for example, soft on crime. That's been a huge GOP talking point, not just in Pennsylvania. But those things have cut into his approval ratings a little bit.

Now, I will say, he still does lead Oz in most of the polls that we have seen. But there also have been flaws in these polls before, so you have got to take anything with a grain of salt.

Judy Woodruff:

And then to Nevada and Jon Ralston, where the Democrat — Democratic incumbent, Catherine Cortez Masto, is seen by many as the most potentially vulnerable Democrat running for the Senate this year. What has happened in that race? She's running against a well-known name in the state of Nevada, Adam Laxalt.

Jon Ralston, The Nevada Independent:

Yes, Judy, she is definitely in a toss-up race. All of the recent polling, including one that we at Nevada Independent did then released over the weekend, show this within the margin of error, but most of the recent polls have showed Laxalt slightly ahead.

As you mentioned, he's the grandson of Paul Laxalt, who was a legendary figure in the state, Ronald Reagan's best friend. Laxalt was a former attorney general, then ran for governor and lost. And then he ran — he was the head of the Trump campaign here and fronted the big lie here in the state.

But he has consistently been either close or slightly ahead. As you know, Judy, Catherine Cortez Masto is not the highest-profile senator out there. She's not that well-known. She's in her first term. She's very disciplined, much more of a workhorse than a show horse, even to the consternation of some of the Democrats here, who wish she had gotten out there more.

But she's run a very good campaign, but to no avail. She has not been able to pull away from Laxalt. She's raised more than any senator, including the legendary Harry Reid, ever raised in this state, including $15 million the last quarter, which is a lot of money for little old Nevada. And, still, this is a very, very close race.

Judy Woodruff:

Well, let me turn back to Georgia.

Stephen Fowler, we just heard Jon Ralston mention former President Trump. We know he has certainly endorsed Herschel Walker. How much of a factor is Donald Trump? What else is on — do voters say is on their minds this cycle?

Stephen Fowler:

Well, Donald Trump is largely a nonfactor in Georgia's elections right now. And that's because most of the slate of candidates that he picked in the primary lost.

Herschel Walker and lieutenant governor nominee Burt Jones are the only two Trump endorsees that have made it to the general election. And Trump has actually stayed away from Georgia. There was reports that he might come and do a rally later this month for Herschel Walker, but that hasn't materialized. And, largely, it's because Trump has left a bad taste in the mouth of Georgia voters because of his attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

There's an ongoing investigation in Fulton County into that, attempts to overturn the election. And so Trump isn't necessarily a big factor here. But what is the factor here is Georgia's economy. National inflation has been a top-line thing that both Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker have mentioned, obviously, Warnock mentioning his attempts to try to combat inflation, and Walker blaming Democrats for the inflation.

But Georgia's economy at the state level is doing surprisingly well. So that attack has really been blunted in a lot of ways. But the issues of abortion, the issues of the economy, and, of course, democracy and voting rights are first and foremost in this state heading into these final weeks.

Judy Woodruff:

So much at play in these elections.

To Katie Meyer again in Pennsylvania. What about the Donald Trump factor and whether he is a central thing in voters' minds, or is it something else?

Katie Meyer:

I think there's no question that Trump's endorsement has been a really big deal for Mehmet Oz. He doesn't have an enormous amount of credibility among Pennsylvania Republicans, among the base that he is trying to capture.

He only recently moved to Pennsylvania. He's a rich celebrity. But, yes, he's leaned heavily into Trump's endorsement and into Trump's style of campaigning, for example, saying that John Fetterman — his campaign said he had a stroke because he didn't eat enough vegetables, things like that, are very in line with the way that Trump has always campaigned.

But I will say, I mean, the policy issues have been at the fore of this campaign, but, more than that, it has been a campaign of personalities, Oz, this guy from TV who's running more of a campaign geared toward moderates, honestly, and Fetterman, who has just tried to paint us as an outsider, somebody who doesn't understand Pennsylvania.

So, more than anything, it has been about the characters of the two candidates.

Judy Woodruff:

And, Jon Ralston, in Nevada, what is driving voters this year? You mentioned the Latino vote feeling different this year. But what else do you see pushing, driving voters' thinking this cycle?

Jon Ralston:

Well, the Hispanic vote is going to be very important. It's been as much as 20 percent of the electorate here in general elections, as you know, Judy.

And Catherine Cortez Masto was the first Latina ever elected to the U.S. Senate, and yet she even she is vulnerable among Hispanic voters. And one of the indicators of that is, just this week, the Club for Growth, a Republican super PAC, decided to pour $2 million, $2 million into Spanish-language ads. We have never seen anything like that in this state.

And Nevada is essentially three states, as you know, Judy. There's the two urban areas, Reno and Las Vegas, and rural Nevada, and speaking of Donald Trump, and he's coming for Adam Laxalt this weekend, because they really want to get a lot of base turnout, Republican base turnout. But it's a difficult needle to thread, because Trump is quite unpopular, about as unpopular, and even more so, than Joe Biden in the state, especially in Clark County or Las Vegas, where 70 percent of the registered voters are.

And so the voters here are driven by the economy. They're driven by all the same pocketbook issues. But when a race is as close as this, every little bit, the Trump factor, the Hispanic vote, every little bit could make the difference.

Judy Woodruff:

Well, each one of these races is absolutely fascinating. And we're going to be following it. And I know the three of you are going to be as well.

Thank you so much, Stephen Fowler, Katie Meyer, Jon Ralston. Thank you again.