The $4 billion midterm — most expensive ever

Politics Oct 24, 2014 9:03 AM EDT

The Morning Line

Today in the Morning Line:

Interest in election may be low from general public, but the power players care and are investing
Nearly $4 billion expected to be spent, more than any midterm in history
Outside groups also to set record

Can’t buy me love? Money can be a dense issue in campaigns. Everyone’s always writing how the system is flooded with money, and it’s easy to turn away, dismiss it and make it a reason not to be interested. BUT what’s happening in this campaign shouldn’t be dismissed. Even though the general public is saying their interest in this election is at the lowest in at least a decade, the most powerful are VERY interested and engaged. That’s evidenced by the fact that this midterm is going to be the most expensive in history, a Center for Responsive Politics analysis finds. It projects that with less than two weeks to go until Election Day, $4 billion will have been spent, more on congressional races than ANY election in history, including the 2012 presidential campaign. In 2012, when $6 billion was spent overall, more than $3.6 billion was spent on House and Senate races.

The outsiders: In this election, candidates and the parties will have spent $2.7 billion, while outside groups will have spent $900 million. That’s a remarkable number considering outside groups in the 2012 presidential campaign — when outside spending peaked after the Citizens United ruling — spent just $400 million more in total, $1.3 billion. Remember the Republican primary and how everyone had a Super PAC? That doesn’t even exist this time and outside spending is almost as much. Conservative groups will outspend liberal ones, CRP projects, $1.92 billion to $1.76 billion. And, by the way, this just includes all the money REPORTED to the Federal Election Commission. “Democrats and liberals will hold a slight lead when it comes to House and Senate party committee spending, and in the amount spent overall by outside groups,” CRP writes. But that “lead in outside group spending … does not include money that groups spent on certain kinds of ads that didn’t have to be reported to the FEC if they were aired more than two months before the election (or 30 days before a primary); conservative groups appear to have dominated in that category.” As the Wall Street Journal points out, “What’s even more startling is that the $4 billion figure — which also includes $315 million spent on operating costs by PACs — doesn’t include the full picture of outside spending in this year’s races.” By the way, Time has a neat interactive showing that the cost of running has risen faster than inflation, health care and even private college tuition.

LINE ITEMS

Georgia Democrat Michelle Nunn leads Republican David Perdue 47 to 44 percent in a CNN/ORC poll released Friday. They’re effectively tied, given the survey’s margin of error. The same poll gives State Sen. Jason Carter a 48 to 46 percent lead over Gov. Nathan Deal among likely voters.
Michelle Obama called Colorado Sen. Mark Udall a five-generation Coloradan, but he was born in Tucson. Conservatives ran with it to point out that it’s GOP Rep. Cory Gardner who’s the five-generation Coloradan.
Gardner leads Udall 46 to 41 percent in a Quinnipiac poll released Friday.
Colorado has been a political swing state since it was founded in 1876, and this year’s Senate race is no exception, with both sides spending millions to claim the bellwether win.
In Massachusetts’ gubernatorial race, Republican Charlie Baker leads Democrat Martha Coakley 45 to 36 percent in a Boston Globe poll released Friday. Meanwhile, the Independent candidate is getting some help from a Morgan Freeman impersonator.
Republican fixer Chris LaCivita’s rescue effort for Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts this fall hasn’t been about making the senator more likeable; it’s all about making Independent Greg Orman equally unlikeable.
Sarah Palin endorsed Alaska’s Independent ticket for governor, snubbing GOP Gov. Sean Parnell who served as her lieutenant governor.
The conversation in North Carolina’s Senate race has made a late shift from local issues (education is Sen. Kay Hagan’s “secret sauce,” writes National Journal’s Alex Roarty) to national issues, which could give GOP State House Speaker Thom Tillis an opening for a last-minute victory.
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham stumped for Iowa Republican Joni Ernst Thursday, while Ernst has canceled her meeting with The Des Moines Register’s editorial board citing their negative editorials about her.
Hillary Clinton will be back in Iowa next week to help Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley.
Despite West Virginia’s overwhelming vote for Mitt Romney two years ago, Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall held onto his seat. His toss-up race for a 20th term this year, which has attracted $14 million in spending, will say a lot about Democrats’ viability in Southern border states.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poured an additional $1.3 million into five races to boost incumbents, including Rahall, Friday.
With the election just over a week away, Republicans are sounding a lot more attached to Social Security in their ads.
The airwaves are so saturated with ads for Senate races, that gubernatorial races are getting drowned out.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s approval rating has dropped to 41 percent — back where it was after the George Washington Bridge lane closure scandal.
The Florida Supreme Court will hear a challenge to the state’s newly redrawn congressional districts in March.
Some members of the Secret Service are doing their jobs, just not the two-legged ones.

TOP TWEETS

How far your paycheck goes depends on your occupation AND the state you live in: http://t.co/NHVSWUlnt9 pic.twitter.com/sI7qkJefek

— Rani Molla (@ranimolla) October 23, 2014