Why AP called the New Hampshire primary for Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — Former President Donald Trump is the winner of the New Hampshire Republican primary.

The Associated Press declared Trump the winner based on an analysis of initial vote returns as well as the results of AP VoteCast, a survey of Republican primary voters. Both indicated Trump was running ahead of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley by an insurmountable margin.

Live Results: New Hampshire Primary

Initial results from more than 25 townships showed Trump leading by a comfortable margin as of 8 p.m. This includes results from Manchester and Concord, two of the state’s three most populous cities. Early returns were also reported from more rural areas in the northern and eastern parts of the state. All confirmed the findings of AP’s survey.

The only areas in which Haley was leading Trump in early returns were in the state’s most Democratic-leaning cities and towns, such as Concord, Keene and Portsmouth.

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VoteCast showed Trump leading Haley by a substantial margin across all regions of the state. It also showed Haley supported by a majority of unaffiliated voters choosing to cast their ballot in the Republican primary. That wasn’t enough to make up for Trump’s nearly 50-point lead among registered Republicans. New Hampshire allows voters not affiliated with a political party to participate in either party’s primary. Voters registered with a party may only vote in their own party’s primary.

AP VoteCast is a comprehensive survey that provides a detailed snapshot of the electorate and helps explain who voted, what issues they care about, how they feel about the candidates and why they voted the way they did.

New Hampshire’s 22 delegates will be allocated proportionally among candidates who receive at least 10 percent of the vote statewide.