What the New Hampshire primary will tell us about the 2024 presidential race

Geoff Bennett:

To break down what to watch for in New Hampshire tonight, we're joined now by our panel of political analysts. That's Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter, Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir, who was on the campaign. He was the campaign manager, in fact, for Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign. And Republican strategist Kevin Madden, who advised Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.

Thank you all for being here.

Amy, the Haley campaign is trying to manage expectations.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Right.

Geoff Bennett:

What would need to happen for an upset to occur tonight?

Amy Walter:

So the expectations have been sort of shifting over these last couple of weeks. I mean, the polls suggest that this is going to be a very big night for Donald Trump . He's up an average of about 14 points in the state.

Now, the polling has been wrong in New Hampshire before. For those of us who around in 2008, the polls going into that Democratic Party suggested that Barack Obama was going to win by eight to 10 points. Obviously, he didn't. Hillary Clinton won that primary. What makes the state so unique is that, yes, independent voters can show up.

And this is what she's counting on, is a surge of voters who maybe they do traditionally — they're registered as independents, but they traditionally vote for Democrats, and maybe would never think to turn out and vote for a Republican, but they like what Nikki Haley is doing.

But what would that tell us about her future going forward? She argues in that campaign memo that Lisa outlined, her campaign argues that there are independent voters all over the country. But these are a very different type of independent voters. And, in fact, the group of voters I'm going to be looking at are a group of voters who describe themselves as somewhat conservative.

They are the voters that really tend to determine who the winner of these elections are. And, right now, we don't know where they're going, but they are probably a better predictor than whether or not you can open your primary to folks who identify or register as independent.

Amna Nawaz:

So, Kevin, pick up where Amy left off there. If Haley doesn't win tonight, and we know there's been some expectation-setting, Chris Sununu even saying, second place is fine. But what does she do?

Does she continue with her campaign, and for what purpose? I mean, does she just amass delegates in case the Trump campaign doesn't continue at some point?

Kevin Madden, Republican Strategist:

Well, delegates are still hard to come by, and she really has to show momentum.

It's one thing to say, hey, we feel like we have momentum. You can do all the expectation-settings with memos, but, at the end of the day, this campaign has to demonstrate that they — that the one-on-one race that they have said that they wanted is now crystallizing the debate for Republican voters, and that those voters are starting to trend towards Nikki Haley into a real race.

So we're going to need to see something within — if she doesn't win tonight, at least something in the single digits, because after a double-digit loss in Iowa, you have to show that the trend line is working in your direction. Now, whether or not she can actually get to South Carolina, like, I think after tonight, you will still have the — like we always say, you don't really run out of reasons to run for president. You run out of money.

Amna Nawaz:

Right.

Kevin Madden:

And so if she still has the resources to make it to South Carolina, I think she will continue on.

But, at some point, we really have to see a very close narrowing of the polls in order to really provide that actual momentum that is going to bring her onto the bigger delegate contests that come in March.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Faiz, meantime, Democrats are providing some counterprogramming tonight. President Biden, Vice President Harris, and their spouses held their first joint campaign event in Northern Virginia focused on abortion rights, trying to draw attention to what has been a political liability for Republicans ever since Roe was overturned.

What do you make of that strategy?

Faiz Shakir, Democratic Strategist:

It's been political dynamite for Democrats, this issue alone. I mean, I think it's been on the ballot in elections recently seven times since the Dobbs decision. It's won every single time.

You look at down-ballot races in Virginia, all — anywhere in this country, and it has been a propellant of voters turning out for Democrats. So this is huge. Now, it also drives enthusiasm. So it's not only a supermajority issue, winning Kansas and Kentucky and places like that. It's an enthusiasm driver.

And for Joe Biden , we know one of his weaknesses of the campaign right now is that enthusiasm. This issue does it for him. When he's at his best, President Biden is a coalition manager. He's a parliamentarian-style president. He's managing a coalition. A big part of that coalition wants abortion rights, and they bring the enthusiasm to his campaign.

And so I think he knows and recognizes right from the jump this is going to be giant for him.

Geoff Bennett:

Is that the campaign's goal, to make this more of a choice election based on policy and less of a referendum on Joe Biden ?

Faiz Shakir:

Well, in addition to that. So, yes, there's multiple things going on here. So, choice is certainly one of them.

And then you have got the democracy threat with Trump. Those two, I think, are obvious and clear, essentially on the table already. And then the question is, now what do the small sliver people who haven't yet made up their mind or moved back and forth, very small numbers here, what moves them?

And I'm not sure that those two issues are it. So now I think you have got to move into, I think, a lot of economic-related issues to speak to people who haven't already made up their mind on Biden and Trump.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy, bring us back to New Hampshire now as we're going to start to see results coming in soon. And tell us where you are looking. We know some of those more densely populated areas, Manchester and Concord and Nashua, that's where Haley has to do particularly well.

Amy Walter:

That's right.

Amna Nawaz:

Tell us about who you're watching.

Amy Walter:

Yes. And I really want to see that we will get these exit polls and really get a sense for just how big the pool of independent voters versus voters who are Republican are.

We have seen polls that have it anywhere from 35 percent to 47 percent. And, obviously, how well Haley does in those polls is driven in part by how well — how big the independent voters are there.

And curious to see how people think about Donald Trump .

Amna Nawaz:

Right.

Amy Walter:

Remember, in the Iowa polls, even voters who didn't vote for Donald Trump said, yes, I'd be satisfied with him. Many of them, most of them thought that the election of Joe Biden was illegitimate.

They didn't think that the January 6 and some of the legal challenges against Donald Trump were going to be a problem for him. So I'm very curious to see just the makeup of that electorate there. But the other thing that's happening, as we have been watching for these last couple of days, the walls sort of closing in around Nikki Haley, in that the Trump campaign getting everybody on board.

We saw in Lisa's report the other candidates in the Republican primary coming out and endorsing him, now leaders in Congress, including many from swing districts coming out and endorsing Donald Trump .

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

Basically, the message being sent, you know what? This thing's all bit over. You might as well get on the train now.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Kevin, we have a long night ahead of us. What are you going to be watching for as the returns come in?

Kevin Madden:

Well, like Amy, I'm going to be looking at where the independent voters tend to fall.

I mean, I think the thing, the interesting thing about New Hampshire is that this is our first glimpse into what could potentially be Trump's biggest liability in a general election, which is a toxic profile with those moderate swing voters.

And even Republican-leaning independents voting for Nikki Haley could signal a greater resistance for voters like that around the country. And, again, this is going to be a close election. It's going to come down to a lot of suburban areas and swing battleground states around the country.

And if the president's still struggling with those voters, I think it says a lot about where the general election battle — battlegrounds could be.

Amna Nawaz:

I can't believe we're talking about the general already.

(Laughter)

(Crosstalk)

Kevin Madden:

Here we are.

Amna Nawaz:

But I will mention this to you, only because, if this is wrapped up as quickly as some predicted could be, we have a very long general election ahead.

Does that change the Biden campaign's reelection strategy at all?

Faiz Shakir:

I mean, it has to.

I mean, so one is, the Biden campaign has been sitting on a lot of money, has not been spending a ton of it, has not been staffing up in a major way. And what we know is that there are a few battlegrounds that are going to determine the election. And it's going to have to be heavily organized in those states, because the sliver of voters who haven't yet made up their mind is so small.

And so if you're talking to everyone who is going to know, because it would really go county by county and find your 500 people who haven't yet made up their mind on Joe Biden versus Donald Trump , which I know is hard to believe. And those are the people.

And you're going to have to figure out — getting into real person conversations with them, what are their preferences, what are their attitudes, what are their beliefs. My sense is, a lot of these are working-class voters, people without a college degree, making under $100,000 a year. They're living with the cost of living concerns in their lives and their families.

And so you hit them with a sense of, what has Joe Biden done? What is he trying to do? Because I think a lot of his economic message has not yet trickled down to a place where people understand what it is he's been fighting for. And it can be done, but it needs to be invested in.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, you could make the point that, looking ahead to the general, while we're doing that…

(Laughter)

Amy Walter:

As long as we're here.

Geoff Bennett:

As long as we're here, you could argue that Nikki Haley is a more formidable general election candidate against Joe Biden than Donald Trump .

Amy Walter:

Yes, that's been her message throughout.

Geoff Bennett:

Why don't Republicans…

Amy Walter:

Because they do believe that Donald Trump came so close last time, that he's the strongest candidate that matched up against Biden.

He looks like the strongest one, stronger than Nikki Haley does. And this idea about needing to win over swing voters, that's not very sexy to primary voters. We have always talked about in politics one of the hardest cells in a primary is to tell primary voters, I'm the most electable candidate in the fall. I'm the person that's going to win over people that don't believe exactly what we believe.

Now, it worked in 2020 for Joe Biden , in part because that election wasn't about Joe Biden , even for Democrats. It was about Donald Trump . That's not what the case is here. This is still Donald Trump 's party. And those voters want to see him get one more shot at it.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy Walter, Faiz Shakir, Kevin Madden, I know you're all sticking around. We're going to have a lot more to talk about.

We will see you all back here shortly for our additional live coverage. It's right here on PBS or online. And that is beginning at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.