Blinken and Xi agree to stabilize relations, but differences remain unresolved

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• Amna Nawaz:

  Secretary of State Antony Blinken finished up a high-stakes visit to Beijing today, the first visit by an American top diplomat to China in five years.

  Relations between the two preeminent global powers are at their lowest point since ties were restored 50 years ago. Blinken's mission, to see if there's a way to right them.

• Xi Jinping, Chinese President (through translator):

  Good afternoon.

• Amna Nawaz:

  A firm handshake, despite a shaky relationship. Today, Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrapped up his postponed trip to China, marathon meetings with several top officials and a short visit with President Xi Jinping. Both sides expressed optimism.

  Antony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State: I stressed that direct engagement and sustained communication at senior levels is the best way to responsibly manage our differences and ensure that competition does not veer into conflict. And I heard the same from my Chinese counterparts.

  We both agree on the need to stabilize our relationship.

• Xi Jinping (through translator):

  The two sides have agreed to follow through with the common understandings President Biden and I had reached in Bali. The two sides have also made progress and reached agreement on some specific issues.

• Amna Nawaz:

  President Xi referring to a meeting with President Biden last November in Indonesia, where the leaders set an agenda to warm relations, but the winter brought frosty relations.

  In February, the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon over its airspace, the reason for this trip's postponement. Blinken and she did not publicly address the furor this weekend. Several other issues went unresolved, most notably resuming military-to-military contacts, which Secretary Blinken confirmed China is not yet ready to do.

• Antony Blinken:

  It's a work in progress.

• Amna Nawaz:

  But in an interview with CBS News, he emphasized its continued urgency.

• Antony Blinken:

  We want to, at the very least, make sure that we don't inadvertently have a conflict because of miscommunication.

• Amna Nawaz:

  A potential point of conflict, Taiwan. China has ratcheted up its military activity around the island that it claims as a breakaway province, while the U.S. has upheld a policy of strategic ambiguity, committing to a One China policy, while also selling arms to the island.

  On several occasions during his term, Biden has also said the U.S. would defend Taiwan from Chinese attack. Also unsettled, the two nations' battle for military and economic influence in the Indo-Pacific region. In. 2021, the U.S. announced a security pact with Australia and the United Kingdom that would supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.

  It garnered a strong rebuke from China.

• Wang Wenbin, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman (through translator):

  Establishing the so-called trilateral security partnership will only trigger an arms race, damage the international nuclear nonproliferation regime, and harm regional peace and stability.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Since then, President Biden has made a trip to the region and has hosted several of its leaders. India's prime minister will visit Washington this week.

  Meantime, China has increased military exercises in the South China Sea and its confrontations with the Americans. Just a few weeks ago, a Chinese fighter jet cut in front of a U.S. aircraft over the South China Sea, which the U.S. military called a — quote — "unnecessarily aggressive maneuver."

  A week later, a Chinese warship cut off an American warship in the Strait of Taiwan. Although there were no breakthroughs on these major points of tension this weekend, Secretary Blinken struck a note of cautious optimism.

• Antony Blinken:

  My hope and expectation is, we will have better communications, better engagement going forward. It is critical to doing what we both agree is necessary. And that is responsibly managing the relationship.

• Amna Nawaz:

  And to decode Secretary Blinken's China visit and its ramifications for Washington's relationship with Beijing, I'm joined by Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He was the director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia at the National Security Council in the Obama administration.

  Also with us is Miles Yu, a senior fellow and director of the China Program at the Hudson Institute. He served as the China policy adviser to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during the Trump administration.

  And welcome to you both. Thanks for being here.

• Ryan Hass, Brookings Institution:

  Thank you.

• Miles Yu, Hudson Institute:

  Thank you for having me.

  So, Ryan, this was reportedly a relatively short meeting, about 30 or 35 minutes, right? What does it say to you that the meeting happened at all between President Xi and Secretary Blinken?

• Ryan Hass:

  Well, I think it was significant that President Xi and Secretary Blinken had a chance to sit down, because it really accomplished two things.

  The first is that President Xi was able to articulate in his own words the future direction that he intends to see the U.S.-China relationship travel. And this is a departure from the previous statement, which was his accusation that the United States seeks to contain and circle and suppress China.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Right.

• Ryan Hass:

  So, Secretary Blinken succeeded in moving President Xi on that.

  The second signal that it sent was a signal to the rest of the Chinese government that President Xi expects and is comfortable with his counterparts engaging directly with their American counterparts to seek to moderate tensions. So, all in all, I think it was a pretty productive day of diplomacy.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Miles, productive? How would you rate it?

• Miles Yu:

  I think I will give you a C-plus, A-minus.

  The third signal that Ryan has not mentioned is that this is also very good optics for the Chinese, because Xi Jinping sits at the head table. He talks like an emperor, talking down, showing his contempt for the American over approach.

  But I think this is in sharp contrast in 2018, last time a U.S. secretary of state with China, when Xi Jinping sits side by side with Secretary Pompeo. Even though he despised Pompeo, but then at least they know he also has some sort amount of fear. This is a conversation that needs to happen, but needs to happen on equal terms.

  I think China right now is in a position to sort of challenge Americans' not only goodwill, but also American strength, and by playing this sort of optical game. So I think it's important both sides sit down to talk about — engage to avoid a crisis. And I think, also, it's very important for us to keep in mind what's at stake on the Chinese side.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Ryan, President Biden has said that he believes U.S.-China relations are on the right trail. Do you agree with that after these meetings?

• Ryan Hass:

  Well, I think that the past two days put us on a better pathway than we were on a week ago at this time.

  The reality is that it's important for the United States and China to have the capacity to communicate directly with each other. It's important to shrink space for miscalculation. It's important to explore whether there's mutual intents to try to moderate the relationship.

  And so we're doing these things because they're in America's interests to do. And on the issue of seating charts, we can quibble over what the proper protocol is for a seating chart. The reality is that the United States is abundantly stronger than China in pretty much every material category that you could use to evaluate.

  And so I think that, from questions of military power, diplomatic partners around the world, alliances, the world reserve currency of the United States dollar, America's innovation ecosystem, we're very comfortable and confident in our capacity to engage China from a position of confidence.

• Amna Nawaz:

  The failure, though — you mentioned the military capabilities. The failure to reestablish those military-to-military communications, that's a bit of a failure for the U.S., right? That was important in terms of bringing down the risk of miscalculation.

• Ryan Hass:

  Well, let's take this as a first step, Amna.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Yes.

• Ryan Hass:

  Secretary Blinken doesn't speak on behalf of the American military, and his Chinese counterparts don't speak on behalf of the Chinese military.

  And it's important that we get to a point where our militaries are able to reestablish connectivity with each other, but, Secretary Blinken's trip was the first step. And, ultimately, questions of war and peace will be decided at the leadership level, not between both militaries.

  And the fact that we were able to reestablish connectivity with China's top leader, I think it's an important step.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Miles, there's the issue of China's faltering economy at this moment, right? You mentioned Chinese leverage in these talks. But doesn't that give the U.S. some leverage?

• Miles Yu:

  Ryan's right. You're absolutely right. The U.S. has tremendous leverage, the leverage we should have used, but we have not used efficiently.

  So, as you say, China's economy is in shambles. We have to understand China needs United States much more than your United States needs China. China's economy, China's technology, China's military is — depends to a larger degree on Western technology and exports. So it's in their best interests to engage with the United States.

  So I think that's why we have this advantage, the advantage that we can use, and I think we should have used more. Secretary Blinken's visit to China, for example, is based upon the assumption that somehow we could establish a direct military-to-military professional contact.

  That's a dream. We have tried for decades. And we have to understand the nature of the Chinese Party-military relationship. The Chinese Communist Party would never allow its military to conduct independent communication with the Western…

• Amna Nawaz:

  Never? That will never happen?

• Miles Yu:

  Never. This is the — that's right. We — this show again and again in 2001 EP-3 plane incident.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Yes.

• Miles Yu:

  Nobody from Chinese military would pick up the phone call, and even though we had robust communication with them.

  The nature of the party-military relationship is totally different from the West. So, this is even worse than the Soviet time, when the U.S. military and the Soviet high command could have some kind of semblance — some kind of communication. No, this is not.

• Amna Nawaz:

  So, Ryan, what are you going to be watching for now in the days and the weeks ahead to judge how these meetings actually went? What's the impact of these talks?

• Ryan Hass:

  Well, we need to explore whether or not the mutual intent to lower the risk of miscalculation or miscommunication exists.

  And we will have a series of follow-up meetings in both Washington and Beijing in the coming weeks that will sort of bring into light how much progress is possible between now and November, when we expect that President Xi will travel to United States to meet with President Biden on the margins of the APEC leaders summit.

  And so we have this window now over the next several months to see if we can shrink space for miscalculation, if we can establish a cooperative agenda that is based upon mutual self-interest, where we both take actions that are in parallel to each other that serve each of our respective interests. And, if so, the world will be a better place.

  But, if not, the United States isn't a confident, strong position to get caught trying.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Miles, what are you watching for?

• Miles Yu:

  China has to be responsible.

  Chinese Communist Party, their actions and deeds are most important in deciding the nature and direction of U.S.-China relationship. So that's why I think I'm very, very satisfied that the new China policy paradigm that emerged during the Trump administration more or less continue on to this day.

  The China challenge is not just a partisan issue. It's an American issue. So, for that, and I think I give Biden credit — administration credit. However, there are some misconceptions. There are some understanding of how the Chinese system operates. We should have no illusion.

  For example, China always throw out this red herring called Taiwan independence. There is no Taiwan independence, because no political party in Taiwan is advocating for Taiwan independence. Taiwan maintain — wants to have status quo.

  Status quo, in fact, is independence. There is no need for that. So China always force the United States to make a statement, say, U.S. do not support Taiwanese independence. This is red herring. It's basically an own goal which we should not have scored.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Gentlemen, we will have to leave it there. I have a feeling we will talk about this some more. Please come back and join us again.

  Miles Yu, Ryan Hass, thank you for your time.

• Ryan Hass:

  Thank you, Amna.

• Miles Yu:

  Thank you.