Capehart and Lewis on the political fallout of Biden withholding some weapons from Israel

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• Amna Nawaz:

  Conflict abroad rattles campaign politics here at home, the former president is tried in criminal court and the court of public opinion, and the Republican speaker owes his gavel to Democrats.

  For all of that, we turn to the analysis of Capehart and Lewis. That's Washington Post associate editor Jonathan Capehart and Matt Lewis, columnist for The Daily Beast. David Brooks is away.

  Great to have you back.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Hi, Amna.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Matt, good to have you here.

• Matt Lewis, The Daily Beast:

  Good to be here.

• Amna Nawaz:

  So let's start with President Biden and a lot of the big news around Israel this week. We saw the report Nick Schifrin was reporting on earlier that basically found that Israel may be in violation of international humanitarian law, but the U.S. will continue to supply Israel with weapons.

  That follows President Biden earlier this week, Jonathan, saying not only were they pausing some weapons deliveries, but that he would consider pausing more if Israel launches a full-scale invasion into Rafah, where a million Gazans are now sheltering.

  How do you look at this and square all these things, some of which seem to be in contradiction with each other?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Right.

  Well, with all of these things, we cannot look at them in isolation. These are not isolated incidents. They are all part of what I view as an enormous diplomatic effort on the part of the president to get Israel and Hamas to agree to a cease-fire, namely, Hamas, agree to a cease-fire, maybe for six weeks, and then hope that it holds and that they can bring an end to the conflict.

  But in terms of what the president is saying, I interviewed him on March 9, where I asked him, what's your red line with Benjamin Netanyahu? Is it invasion of Rafah? He said yes.

  Fast-forward to May 8 in an interview with CNN. He's also once again asked a red line question, and he said, well, if he does — if Netanyahu invades Rafah, I'm going to halt — I will halt weapons shipments.

  I don't see how that is in contradiction to what this report says. I think Nick's report was very good and the interviews were very good and just sort of showing how the administration is trying to do a lot of things and buffing and polishing things here and there, because I think, ultimately, what the administration wants and what the president wants is for Israel and Hamas to get back to the negotiating table in Cairo and get and agree to a cease-fire.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Matt, is it clear to you where President Biden's red line is on this?

• Matt Lewis:

  Well, first, I think we should be drawing red lines on our enemies, not our allies, right?

  But I think Biden has a problem right now, and it is a political problem. It is axiomatic in politics that if you try to please everybody, you will end up pleasing nobody. And, up until now, I think that, domestically, in terms of domestic politics here in America, Joe Biden had a problem certainly with kind of young progressives who were unhappy that he was standing firmly with Israel.

  I think now that has become muddied. And I think we're now in a position where, number one, it's unlikely that these young progressives who are calling him things like Genocide Joe are going to come around to liking Joe Biden and voting for him. He also, though, risks alienating, number two, Democrats who are pro-Israel, kind of the mainstream Democrats.

  And the other thing that I think isn't really being talked about is the impact this may have on never-Trump conservatives. We saw people like Liz Cheney, Nikki Haley, Mitt Romney come out and strongly condemn Joe Biden's comments about Rafah.

  Keep in mind, Nikki Haley, just this week, got 21 percent of the vote in a Republican primary in Indiana. There are people out there who were open to voting for Joe Biden. And I think they're less likely today than they were a week ago.

• Amna Nawaz:

  On the domestic politics front, Jonathan, was the tough talk for Bibi Netanyahu, the pausing of some weapons deliveries, was that President Biden bending to political pressure here at home?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  No. No.

  I mean, Matt, love you to pieces…

  (Laughter)

• Jonathan Capehart:

  … but anyone who thinks that there are domestic political considerations on the part of the president that's driving his decisions hasn't had — you haven't been paying attention to Joe Biden.

  We have to remember this is a man who's been on the world stage for 50 years. During — during those years, he was chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He knows — he's known Prime Minister Netanyahu for 50 years.

  He is about getting to — he's about using the power of diplomacy to bring about a resolution. He's done a lot of things on the world stage that domestically have hurt him, the withdrawal from Kabul and how disastrous that was. But he stood by that decision because it was the right thing to do.

  And I think that the president doing what he's doing, from carrots and sticks with Netanyahu, he is doing it because he's — for him, the resolution is a cease-fire deal, however he can get it.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Matt, it's worth pointing out previous U.S. presidents, including Republican presidents…

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Reagan.

• Amna Nawaz:

  … Reagan, H.W. Bush, W. Bush as well, have all withheld weapons from Israel at some point. Why shouldn't this one?

• Matt Lewis:

  Well, look, I think there's a couple things.

  First, this is a little different. Some people certainly have said that what happened on October 7 is the worst thing that has happened to the Jewish people since the Holocaust. So I think, qualitatively, this is different.

  I would also say, from a political standpoint, I mean, someone like Ronald Reagan, I think, was seen as a strong, tough leader. And he was someone who, if anything, the perception was maybe he's a little too bellicose, right?

  With Joe Biden — and you mentioned Afghanistan. I mean, that may or may not have been the right move. But I tell you what. Joe Biden's poll numbers have not — have not returned to where they were before the Afghanistan withdrawal. He is himself facing an existential crisis in this election in November.

  And if this turns out to be anywhere close to Afghanistan, in terms of what it does to his approval ratings, which are all — which are not great, then he may be out of a job come November.

• Amna Nawaz:

  I do want to turn now to the former president's criminal hush money trial in New York, because there was a lot of headlines around the witness testimony, in particular, that of adult film star Stephanie Clifford, who's known professionally as Stormy Daniels.

  Some very tense moments as she's being cross-examined, including this exchange with Trump attorney Susan Necheles, when Necheles, the Trump attorney, asked her: "You're celebrating the indictment by selling things from your store," referencing her merchandise when she's associating herself with Mr. Trump.

  And Stormy Daniels replies: "Not unlike Mr. Trump."

  Jonathan, what did you take away from Ms. Daniels and the other testimony this week?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Well, I think Stormy Daniels, she's the central figure in all of this. It was important to hear from her.

  And I'm not surprised. If you were to — if you follow Stormy Daniels on Twitter, her testimony and her giving as good as she was getting from the defense would not be a surprise. That response was not a surprise. There was another response she had about whether stories were made up, and her response to Susan Necheles was also very funny, inspired and turned around on her.

  I mean, look, Donald Trump had a mug shot taken in Georgia and immediately turned around and started making money off it from his supporters for his criminal — any number of his criminal defense trials — cases.

  Who is going to begrudge Stormy Daniels for doing the same thing? And I think, in the end, it doesn't matter what we think. It matters what those — what the members of the jury think.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Well, to that point, Matt, I mean, the Trump attorneys went after her pretty hard, really tried to attack her credibility, paint her as an opportunist.

  Was all of that for the jury in the room or the court of public opinion outside?

• Matt Lewis:

  I think it is for the jury.

  Keep in mind, Donald Trump only needs one juror to acquit for a hung jury. So, that — and that may be the end of the whole thing. So, is there one person, is there one juror who can see them kind of tearing down, impeaching her character? That may be the best — I don't think Trump can win on the merits, OK?

  I think he's dead to rights in terms of the substance.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Toast.

• Matt Lewis:

  Can they throw enough at the wall and try to take down Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen, and make them look bad and have one juror who just sort of nullifies the whole thing?

  (Crosstalk)

• Amna Nawaz:

  Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, House Speaker Mike Johnson, with the help of Democrats, we should point out, survived an attempt by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene to oust him that we knew was coming.

  Jonathan, was it the right move by Leader Hakeem Jeffries to save Speaker Johnson? And is Speaker Johnson safe now, do you think?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  The answer to the first question, yes, it was the right move, because, if you're interested in governing, then you must keep this speaker — this speaker in place to get other priorities done.

  That being said, that does not mean that Speaker Johnson is out of the woods. When I — through my phone calls with members of Congress, each one made it clear, while they said that this is a — this is a one-and-done thing, whether they vote for him, vote to save him or not.

  The next — if they were going to vote for — vote to save him, they made it clear, the next time, it depends. And I think that's why he's not — that's why he's not out of the woods. I have been saying that his speakership is Republican in name only, because he can't get anything done, pass legislation or save his own speakership, without Hakeem Jeffries and the Democratic minority.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Matt, how do you look at that?

• Matt Lewis:

  Look, I think the Democrats — I give Democrats a lot of credit for this, right? They stood with Speaker Johnson to do things like keep the government open, to do things like funding Ukraine and Israel, which I think are very important.

• Amna Nawaz:

  To govern, essentially.

• Matt Lewis:

  Basically, to govern.

  (Laughter)

  (Crosstalk)

• Matt Lewis:

  And also — and also, I think, to stand with team normal versus the radical Marjorie Taylor Greene, MAGA wing.

  (Laughter)

• Matt Lewis:

  So I think — maybe it's short term, maybe it doesn't last, but for now, at least, the good guys won.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Well, I have got 30 seconds left, but I have to ask you.

  There is that split between the MAGA, the folks backing Marjorie Taylor Greene, and, like, the FOX contingent backing Johnson. Is that going to continue to play out that way?

• Matt Lewis:

  I think it's — I do think it is going to continue to play out.

  But, look, here's the interesting thing. For some reason, Donald Trump likes Mike Johnson. And some of it, I think, has to do with the fact that it's such a slim Republican majority. Trump doesn't want chaos in the House right now.

  But I think there's a personal friendship there. And as long as Donald Trump has Mike Johnson's back, he's pretty safe.

• Amna Nawaz:

  We will see.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  He's got one seat.

  (Laughter)

• Amna Nawaz:

  Matt Lewis, Jonathan Capehart, great to see you both.

  Thank you.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Thanks, Amna.