Concerns grow as Kim Jong Un pledges support for Putin’s war in Ukraine

Amna Nawaz:

It's a growing alliance that's sparking concern from the U.S. and its allies.

In his first trip outside of North Korea since the pandemic, Kim Jong-Un met Vladimir Putin in Russia today to discuss whether they each had something the other wants.

Stephanie Sy reports on what that could be and the ramifications of — a deal would have for Ukraine and the rest of the world.

Stephanie Sy:

The Kim dynasty's preferred form of transit, an old-fashioned armored luxury train, rolled into Russia carrying the supreme leader.

Meeting only for the second time, Kim Jong-Un and Vladimir Putin greeted each other like two familiar autocrats. The summit lasted at least five hours, with promises of greater economic and security cooperation. There were no signed agreements, but gushing support for Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

Kim Jong-Un, North Korean Leader (through interpreter):

Russia is currently engaged in a just fight against hegemonic forces to defend its sovereign rights, security and interests.

Stephanie Sy:

Up against a NATO-supplied Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian forces need more guns and ammunition, even the old Soviet kind. And while 42 percent of North Koreans can't get enough food, the government maintains a large stockpile of these artillery shells and rockets.

U.S. officials suspect Moscow has already procured North Korean War supplies and are watching to see if today's meeting leads to a more expansive arms deal.

But, since 2006, North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions over its nuclear weapons program, sanctions that Moscow previously supported. Putin's chosen location for the summit is raising red flags. The Vostochny Cosmodrome is Russia's largest rocket launch site. And it's no secret that Kim wants a spy satellite.

Speaking at an official launch, he avoided specifics.

Kim Jong-Un (through interpreter):

Together with comrade Putin, we just had an elaborate discussion about the military and political situation the Korean Peninsula and in Europe and have come to the conclusion that we need to further intensify strategic and tactical cooperation to ensure safety.

Stephanie Sy:

Despite international sanctions, Putin seemed to suggest there was room for cooperation.

Vladimir Putin, Russian President (through interpreter):

There are certain restrictions on military cooperation with North Korea. But there are things that we, of course, can talk about.

Stephanie Sy:

For more on the significance of today's meeting, I'm joined by Jean Lee, former Pyongyang correspondent for the Associated Press and co-host of "The Lazarus Heist" podcast on North Korea, and by John Sipher. He had a 28-year career in the CIA and was based in Moscow during the 1990s.

Welcome, both of you, to the "NewsHour."

Putin and Kim played this off as a typical diplomatic visit. But there seemed to be no question among U.S. officials and other analysts that this was transactional. Putin needs ammunition. Kim needs all sorts of things, including food, military technology.

Assuming you agree on that, how much assistance can North Korea actually provide Russia?

Jean, I will start with you.

Jean Lee, Former North Korea AP Bureau Chief:

Well, there isn't often a time when North Korea can provide anything to anyone.

But this is one of those times. So that's why we're looking at this so closely, because it comes 18 months into Russia's conflict, its war in Ukraine, perhaps at a time when it's running low on some of the munitions that it needs.

And it's got a neighbor that is desperate and has plenty of stockpiles of that ammunition and some of that weaponry, because, of course, North Korea for many, many years was supported by the Soviet Union, and so has a lot of that technology, or, I should say, that weaponry, that Moscow might need right now to prolong that conflict.

Stephanie Sy:

John, what exactly does Putin need? How much pressure is Russia's Defense Ministry and industry under right now?

John Sipher, Former CIA Officer:

Well, there's reporting that they have expended as many as 12 to 15 million artillery shells so far in this war. And they haven't actually pushed forward at all during that time.

And so I think they're running low on some stocks. They know that the North Koreans have Soviet and Russian-capable kind of bullets, artillery shells and rockets and things that the Russians can use. And so, in a sense, it's two things. It's a signal that Putin's maybe digging in for the long term here.

And it's also a signal that they're sort of running low on things, and they need some help from North Korea.

Stephanie Sy:

And do you agree, John, with Jean, who uses the word desperation for Putin? Is this a new low for him?

John Sipher:

Yes, it's a signal he's in for the long term. But, frankly, he's got no choice. He's been unable to really change things on the battlefield.

And so he's turning to North Korea. Like, listen, North Korea has the GDP of something like $18 billion a year. We have provided more assistance than that to Ukraine during this time. He had to travel in an armored train because North Korea doesn't have any aircraft that are suitable or safe enough.

And so, yes, Vladimir Putin is going to gain maybe some new shells — or, actually, many of these shells are aging and probably duds and such. But he's doing what he has to do. He's scraping the bottle of barrel here.

Stephanie Sy:

Jean, let's talk about what Kim Jong-Un gets from this meeting. And what are the ramifications of this meeting with Putin for Kim?

Jean Lee:

Well, for starters, he gets a stage.

He is coming out of isolation after four years of shutting himself off, shutting North Korea off from the world. He's stepping out onto this platform that President Putin is giving him. And so he has all the propaganda that he needs.

On the other side of the equation, I think that he's gone to the space center, and he's had conversations about space technology. So there's certainly a question about whether this exchange has included some piece of technology that will help him advance that program. And I think it's important to note that it's not just about space exploration. This is a technology that is very similar to ballistic missile technology.

And so you need those long-range rockets to get those satellite launch vehicles up into space. And so this has ramifications, because it's about proliferation. And so this kind of exchange of information will certainly have the potential to help Kim Jong-Un get his nuclear program to the next level. And that should be very worrying for all of us.

Stephanie Sy:

John, I wonder if you agree with that assessment, that there is a concern about nuclear proliferation or technology transfer in that realm here?

John Sipher:

I don't know if it's so much about nuclear proliferation or transfer of nuclear material, but it is about, as Jean mentioned, satellites and reconnaissance satellites, and the kind of equipment that's necessary if you're going to have a stand-alone ballistic missile program that you're going to need.

And the Russians obviously have a lot of experience going to space. Now, Russia has just had a space effort that failed. And Korea has sent several efforts to send satellites to space that have also failed. So there is some interest here from North Korea to get both food aid and aid with things like satellites.

Stephanie Sy:

To your point, John, Kim Jong-Un in recent months has had two failed launches of a spy satellite that he seems to desperately want.

Just three weeks ago from that Cosmodrome that Putin has been boasting about, they had a failed moon lander launch. So, realistically, how big of a threat is this alliance?

John Sipher:

Frankly, I don't think it's a big threat. I don't think it changes the strategic battlefield here at all, because, like I said, the fact the Russians have expended this much ammunition and the North Koreans can give them some additional ammunition is not going to change things on the battlefield.

This has got to be humiliating for Putin that he has to turn to places like Iran and North Korea to get assistance. He can't go elsewhere, really. Even China can't — won't give him military weapons and ammunition. And so this — it suggests that he's doing what he needs to do, but it doesn't suggest that it's going to — it's going to end up with more dead Russians and dead Ukrainians, but I don't think it'll change what's happening on the battlefield.

Stephanie Sy:

Jean, bigger picture, what does the Putin-Kim meeting portend about the larger international order?

Jean Lee:

Certainly, what it projects and what it messages to us is that there is going to be a huge challenge ahead for the West, for the United States, if they want to try to bring North Korea's nuclear ambitions under control, because now you have got the president of Russia standing with the leader of North Korea and saying that they stand together, essentially, against the United States and the West.

And that means it's going to be very difficult for the U.S. and its allies to get Russia on board with any new U.N. Security Council resolutions. And the U.N. Security Council has been a place where they have meted out punishment and tried to restrain North Korea from expanding its arsenal.

And that's going to be increasingly difficult with this show of friendship.

Stephanie Sy:

Jean Lee of "The Lazarus Heist" podcast and John Sipher, formerly with the CIA, thank you both for joining us with your insights.

Jean Lee:

Thank you.