Democratic and Republican strategists break down likely Biden-Trump rematch

Amna Nawaz:

Former President Donald Trump 's second primary victory last night in New Hampshire makes it more likely that this year's race for president will be a rematch of 2020.

Geoff Bennett:

But while Mr. Trump and President Biden are already setting their sights on each other, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is reminding Republican voters she's still in the fight.

We're joined now by Democratic strategist Michael Meehan, a former longtime aide to Democratic members of Congress, and Republican strategist Kevin Madden, who advised Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.

It's great to have you both here.

So, Donald Trump is now the first non incumbent Republican to win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Here's a bit of what the former president had to say last night in his victory speech.

Donald Trump:

We are going to win this. The reason we have support is because they are so bad at what they're doing and so evil and they're destroying our country.

Geoff Bennett:

So, he says, "We're going to win this."

But looking at the voter surveys, the Associated Press voter surveys from last night, Kevin, 21 percent of Republicans who cast ballots in the New Hampshire primary said they'd be so dissatisfied with Donald Trump as a general election candidate that they wouldn't even vote for him. And 15 percent of Republicans who participated in the Iowa caucuses said the same thing.

How does Donald Trump unify the party and move ahead to a general election with those kind of numbers?

Kevin Madden, Republican Strategist:

You're right.

I think it's indicative of some of the tension in his message. I think base Republican voters right now, what really energizes them is Donald Trump being this fighter who can take on the perceived excesses of the left and fight against Joe Biden , everything that he's done wrong and where — the ways took the country in the wrong direction.

But at the same time, one of the big challenges he has is that a lot of more moderate, pragmatic voters, swing voters, they are very upset with the idea that he is constantly relitigating the 2020 election and he is constantly looking backwards.

So the path forward, the way to unify the party and really win over swing voters, if he's going to win the general election in November, has to be focused on a more future-oriented message about the issues that people care about.

Now, he's going to have his own way of talking about those issues, but the economy, immigration, national security, foreign policy problems that we have or challenges that we have around the globe, really focus on those and where he wants to take the country in the future.

Geoff Bennett:

The other big story of the night was President Biden got more votes as a write-in candidate who didn't even compete in New Hampshire than former President Barack Obama did back in 2012, when he did contest that primary in New Hampshire.

How does the Biden campaign build on that momentum moving forward, especially with this new shakeup in the leadership of their campaign?

Michael Meehan, Democratic Consultant:

Well, I think you saw a great organization by the New Hampshire Democrats, right?

Senator Shaheen, Senator Hassan put a big effort in to making sure that Joe Biden didn't finish out on top. And that's the kind of things that happen — that's going to help you win a close election. We have seen since Trump stacked the court and overturned abortion rights for women all across this country that there's been about a 10 or 11 percent more performance on Election Day for Democrats in competitive races.

And so I think last night was a big win for Joe Biden . He wasn't even on the ballot. He beat Barack Obama, who walked across water when he was running for reelection.

(Laughter)

Michael Meehan:

So, here's — so, he's constantly undercounted, but the organization is worth a couple of points. And in a couple-of-point race, like he beat Trump last time, that's a very important thing.

Geoff Bennett:

Nikki Haley faces a lot of questions about the viability of her campaign, since there's little evidence that she has major support in the primaries and the caucuses that await her campaign.

Realistically, is there anything that she can do to boost her standing between now and then?

Kevin Madden:

Well, look, I think the biggest challenge that she's going to have is just her own campaign and her donors.

They right now are funding the building of an infrastructure and a campaign that has lost double-digit in the first two contests. And she's going to have to present a plan to the donors much like a business plan, which is, here's the way going forward, and here's where I start, offering details about where you win and how you take that momentum into the bigger part of the calendar, where you have 16 contests all the way up until I think it's March 19, right — March 5 and then March 19.

So she really has to make a case that she can win somewhere there, because, otherwise, it's really hard to make the case to keep the resources going. And in places like Florida, where this campaign, if it's going to continue on, it's going to have to compete, it's like $3 million a week to compete there.

So you really do have to consolidate your support amongst your donors if you're going to get the volunteer and voter enthusiasm — donors. If you're going to get the volunteer and voter enthusiasm that you're going to need to win somewhere.

Geoff Bennett:

President Biden, who walked the picket lines last year with striking autoworkers today, picked up the endorsement of the United Auto Workers union.

Here's some of what he told that group today.

Joe Biden , President of the United States: The days of working people being dealt out of a deal are over in this country as long as I'm president.

(Cheering and applause)

Joe Biden :

Working people are going to get their fair share. You have earned it! You fought for it! And you deserve it!

Geoff Bennett:

So how will that endorsement and more importantly his message of economic populism, how will that boost his effort to reach out to voters in Michigan and working-class Americans who really have comprised that blue wall that Democrats need to keep in order to win the White House?

Michael Meehan:

Yes.

So the stock market is all-time high. Unemployment is at a 50-year low. And what Joe Biden did today was tell people that you're going to be cut in on this deal too. Keep me in office and we're going to make sure that the prosperity that people at the top are seeing and all across the country, they're going to see it when you go to work every day and take a shower and you come home at night.

Those are the kind of voters that Joe Biden resonates with. That's how he won the first time. That's how he's going to win again.

Geoff Bennett:

I want to play for you, Kevin, a bit of what Nikki Haley said last night and point our focus to something in particular.

Nikki Haley (R), Presidential Candidate: Most Americans do not want a rematch between Biden and Trump.

Audience:

No!

Nikki Haley:

The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election.

Geoff Bennett:

So the polling actually bears out the first part of what she said is that most Americans aren't thrilled about the prospects of a Trump-Biden rematch.

And here we are facing the longest general election in history. Which campaign is helped by that? Which campaign is hurt by that?

Kevin Madden:

By the length of the campaign.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes.

Kevin Madden:

Look, I think the fact that Joe Biden is — look, the tough thing about campaigns is, they're grueling not only emotionally, but they're grueling and they're taxing physically.

And I think Joe Biden , one of the criticisms that many voters have is that he doesn't seem like he's up to the job and up to the task. And so I think the more this campaign drags on and the more intense it gets and the travel and the tone and tenor that Trump is going to set, where he's going to be very aggressive during this campaign, I think it works to Trump's advantage.

And I think that's one of the things that a lot of voters right now see when they worry about the prospects of Joe Biden inside the Democratic coalition.

Geoff Bennett:

And yet the Biden campaign and the White House are trying to focus on issues. The White House said today that they're inviting Kate Cox. That's the Texas woman at the center of that high-profile abortion case. She will be the guest of first lady Jill Biden at the State of the Union address.

Michael Meehan:

Yes, I think the White House is doing right on that, because women across this country will not tell a pollster that I'm not going to vote for somebody once their rights have been taken away.

And we have seen, when they actually go and vote, they go and vote for the Democrat, they go and vote for Joe Biden , because Donald Trump doesn't talk about this anymore, but he talked for the first half of this campaign about the three justices he put on that overturned Roe v. Wade. He's not talking about that because he's right.

He should be scared, because the silent majority of those women have come out and have elected Democrats in really red states and really red places in the last two-and-a-half years since the ruling came down.

Geoff Bennett:

Michael Meehan, Kevin Madden, thank you both. Appreciate it.

Michael Meehan:

Thank you.