Diplomatic efforts intensify across Europe amid threat of Russian invasion in Ukraine

Judy Woodruff:

When Russia's President Vladimir Putin spoke about the crisis in Ukraine today, it was the first time he had done so in four months.

His remarks come as more than 100,000 Russian troops now surround Ukraine on three sides.

Nick Schifrin has our coverage, beginning with a new Russian military base in Brest in far western Belarus.

On the border of Russian-allied Belarus and NATO member Poland, Russian soldiers today set up shop. The West fears they could invade Ukraine to the south at any time. But, in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin endorsed diplomacy.

Vladimir Putin, Russian President (through translator):

I hope that, in the end, we will find the solution. Though it is not easy, we are aware of it.

Nick Schifrin:

But his message was mixed. Following a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Putin also said recent U.S. and NATO documents disregarded his demands.

Vladimir Putin (through translator):

We didn't see an adequate response to our three key demands, preventing expansion of NATO, the nondeployment of strike weapon systems near Russian borders, and returning the military infrastructure of NATO in Europe to the positions existing in 1997.

Nick Schifrin:

In fact, the U.S. rejected those demands, and even today showed off American jets in NATO member Estonia, just a few hundred miles from the Russian border.

Instead, the U.S. is offering to discuss with Russia mutual limits on Eastern European exercises, like these in Poland, and missile deployments, by reviving the defunct Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF. Senior U.S. officials said that's what Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov talked about on the phone today, and would form the basis of future diplomacy.

Ned Price, State Department Spokesman:

We are prepared to engage in serious diplomacy with the Russian Federation on a reciprocal basis.

Woman:

Moscow trying to rebuild the Soviet empire.

Nick Schifrin:

In Ukraine's Parliament today, a show of thanks for NATO countries that have supported Ukraine's military.

In the last few weeks, the United Kingdom has increased its support, including with weapons designed to destroy Russian tanks. Today, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson became the first Western head of government to visit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the current crisis. Both warned, war could challenge Europe's future.

Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian President (through translator):

This is not going to be a war of Ukraine and Russia. This is going to be a European war, a full-fledged war.

Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister:

Yes, of course, it's about Ukraine, and that matters deeply to us. But this is about something even bigger, I'm afraid. It's about the whole European security architecture.

Nick Schifrin:

Over the last few months, the Europeans emphasized a unified front against Russia, amongst themselves and with their American counterparts.

But French President Emmanuel Macron, who has spoken to Putin twice in four days, endorses E.U. talks with Russia, instead of U.S.-Russia talks.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who talked to Putin today, has downplayed the Russian threat. Germany sent Ukraine helmets, but refuses to send weapons, and publicly declines to threaten to kill the German-Russian pipeline Nord Stream 2 in case of invasion.

Meanwhile, the NATO countries along Russia's border, including the Baltics and Poland, lend their full support. Today, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki criticized Germany for giving Putin leverage over Europe.

Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland (through translator): By launching Nord Stream 2, Berlin is giving Putin the weapon which he will use to blackmail the whole of Europe.

Nick Schifrin:

For more on whether Europe is united in the face of Russian threats to Ukraine and NATO, we get two views.

Kasia (ph) Pisarska is chair of the Warsaw Security Forum, a NATO-sponsored organization that hosts high-level conferences on security. She is also chair of the European Academy of Diplomacy and professor at the Warsaw School of Economics. And Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff is vice president and director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think tank that promotes U.S.-European cooperation.

Welcome both to the "NewsHour."

Kasia Pisarska, let me start with you.

What is your reaction to what we just heard, those mixed messages from Vladimir Putin, on the one hand, endorsing the idea of diplomacy, but also saying the U.S. and NATO failed to meet his demands?

Katarzyna Pisarska, Warsaw Security Forum:

Well, let's be honest. It's not been a good week for Vladimir Putin.

This past few days, we have seen unprecedented unity on the side of many NATO member states, for the first time really trying to put together sanctions that would hurt.

From the United Kingdom declaring that it will sanction oligarchs, Russian oligarchs living in the U.K., and nothing is off the table here, to Denmark, or, of course, the Baltic states, Poland already sending arms to Ukraine.

So Vladimir Putin sees that the Western alliance, that the NATO allegiance is extremely serious.

Nick Schifrin:

Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, is that how you see it, Western unity in the face of Russian aggression?

Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, German Marshall Fund:

Well, that Europeans disagreed with each other would be nothing unusual. That's what happens all the time at — the European Union is a compromise machine to deal with it.

The unusual thing now is, indeed, as Kasia said, unity. Folks sing from the same song sheet, and I think that is what Vladimir Putin achieved with his threat. And, in some ways, that may not be what he expected, what he expected to hear.

Now, there is nuances. There always will be nuances. But the big message is that I think Western countries, European countries have understood what this is about and what the threat is.

Nick Schifrin:

Kasia Pisarska, but are there not differences?

We have Germany, for example, not sending weapons to Ukraine, refusing to publicly say that Nord Stream 2 would be canceled in the face of invasion, while, as you said, the U.K. and eastern flank countries are supporting Ukraine military and trying to publicly support Zelensky himself in Kyiv.

Katarzyna Pisarska:

I say this with great regret sitting here in Warsaw, that Germany has lost an incredible chance for its foreign policy, for the new government's foreign policy to really stand up to the challenge.

I do agree. And this is also the assessment, the regional assessment, not only here in Warsaw, but also in Bucharest, in the Baltic states, and surely in Ukraine, that, because of fears, lack of public support, some historical issues, it has not taken the challenge of actually leading the European Union in responding to this crisis.

This is a stark contrast to what Angela Merkel has been doing for many years. And it was her very clear stance on the annexation of Crimea in 2014 that allowed the E.U. to create a package of sanctions that we expanded in 2015 and actually sustained these sanctions over the long term. This leadership is missed.

Nick Schifrin:

Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, is that how you see it? Germany has failed to lead?

Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff:

Here's where the nuances that I talked about come in.

It is true that this is a new government that hasn't found its footing yet. This is a government — this is a German government that he comes in as a domestic reform government with a fragile coalition. And now they are being — they're catching up to reality, that there is a reality beyond their nice program of industrial transformation.

All of a sudden, foreign policy intrudes into their plans, and they are not prepared for that. And it is no surprise, certainly not to me, that Germany is not hawkish, is not forward-leaning when it comes to Russia. But make no mistake. This government will be part of the Western alliance should Vladimir Putin move. And they will be part of a sanctions regime.

Nick Schifrin:

Kasia Pisarska, I wonder if we could talk about France and Italy.

We have seen the leaders of those countries speaking directly with Vladimir Putin over the last few days, including Macron twice in the last four days.

Is there a difference between the diplomacy that they are trying to engage with Russia and the more forcible stance that the Brits, that the Poles have taken with Ukraine?

Kasia Pisarska:

Absolutely.

From a Central European perspective, there are fears — and some of these are legitimate fears — that France will be soft on Russia and Italy will be soft on Russia, much softer if there is no real threat for Vladimir Putin in terms of large costs, sanctions, and also, most importantly, those type of actions that would hurt oligarchs and Putin's money that is in different places around the West.

Then he will probably see this as weakness, and will — that will only give a reason for him to move forward into Ukraine.

Nick Schifrin:

Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, is there softness, is there a weakness that you see in France and perhaps other countries, including Italy?

Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff:

First, these are 30 countries in NATO that heads of state and heads of government talk independently with Mr. Putin, is their right. It is just important that we all sing from the same song sheet.

Unfortunately, with Mr. Macron. We don't know about his song sheet. We don't know what he's — there's been no pre-briefings. There's been no post-briefings. This is what concerns me. Mr. Macron has talked about the need for a new European security architecture just a few days ago, at a time when Mr. Putin is threatening that very architecture.

So, one would — one would wonder what that conversation would have to be like. So, I'm waiting for him to give us a readout of it, just as we have expected and received from our American friends to be — that to be the case.

Mr. Macron is the president of the European Council at the moment, so he has every right to move forward, but he needs to communicate with the rest of us.

Nick Schifrin:

Kasia Pisarska, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, thank you very much to you both.