Former U.S. ambassador on Saudi Arabia's struggle to defend against Houthi attacks

Amna Nawaz:

For perspective on the escalating war between Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, we turn now to Michael Ratney. He served as U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia during the Biden administration. He's now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Ambassador, welcome back to the show.

It's worth reminding people there was actually an informal cease-fire in place between the Saudis and the Houthis in Yemen until just July of this year. What do you make of how dramatically and how quickly this conflict has escalated?

Michael Ratney, Center for Strategic and International Studies: So what began as a six-month truce a few years ago was extended into a de facto cease-fire really until just a few months ago, as you point out.

And it seems as though, at that point, the Houthis, who had more or less been in abeyance since the start of the Iran war at the end of February, got into the fight. The Iranians were helping them, seemingly transporting advisers and weapons. The Saudis felt they needed to respond.

The Houthis, in a sort of lightning campaign, took coastal positions on the Bab al-Mandab that threatened shipping of oil. It threatened Saudi energy infrastructure. And from there, things have just deteriorated badly.

Amna Nawaz:

It's also worth pointing out Saudi Arabia is the largest customer for U.S. arms exports. They spend tens of billions of dollars for U.S. warplanes and air defense systems. Why have they not been able to intercept or repel these Houthi attacks?

Michael Ratney:

So the Saudis have considerable air defenses, a lot of it U.S.-origin Patriots, for example, but it's stretched thin.

You can imagine they're prioritizing their energy infrastructure, which is still the lifeblood of their economy, and they need more. And the Houthis are able to attack in a very asymmetric way, sometimes in ways that defy conventional air defense systems. So they do have air defenses. They need more.

And that attack, that brutal attack on the airport just a few days ago, is really evidence.

Amna Nawaz:

You were just in Saudi Arabia recently. What was the mood on the ground there?

Michael Ratney:

So I was there last week, and there was a first attack on the airport the day after I got there, and it created some anxiety.

And then this really horrific attack in which multiple people died and many, many casualties was the day after I left. And you had the sense that the Saudi people were, on the one hand, in solidarity. They were angry at what the Houthis were doing, but I think they were somewhat anxious about the direction of this conflict.

It's one thing for the Saudis to strike Houthis targets in Yemen, which they're doing in force today, but it's pretty clear that the Houthis have this ability to respond asymmetrically in really, really horrible ways, not just attacking infrastructure, but really targeting civilians, trying to murder civilians in Riyadh and elsewhere.

Amna Nawaz:

You heard President Trump there say he's been in contact with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He said he's weighing joining in on this fight. There's also reporting that he rejected a request from Mohammed bin Salman last month to do so.

What do you see happening here? Do you see the U.S. joining in this fight?

Michael Ratney:

So I sense the Saudis are pretty frustrated. We and they have invested decades in this military partnership, and one of the expectations is, when the chips are down, when the country is under attack, that the U.S. would support them.

Now, there's credible reports that the U.S. is offering some assistance in the form of intelligence sharing or targeting and planning. But what the Saudis really want and need are U.S. airstrikes that can seriously degrade the Houthis' ability to launch these strikes.

Trump has been ambivalent about that. The president at times has said that he's supportive of the Saudis, but it seems like, either because of limitations on U.S. military capacity or because, as a political matter, he doesn't want to open another front in the war, he's been really reluctant to get involved further.

Amna Nawaz:

What are the Saudi options for dealing with the Houthis at this point and what has to happen in order for this conflict not to escalate further?

Michael Ratney:

There's no real good options at this point.

This was the inevitable, predictable escalation of the Iran war that started months ago. And I think the Saudis and others in the Gulf knew that this would happen eventually. The Houthis, although in some sense are a proxy of the Iranians, are also quite independent-minded or are not necessarily controlled by them.

So I think for the moment the Saudi options are take the gloves off, and they're doing that with some concerted airstrikes against the Houthis. But I think ultimately they have to get back to some kind of uncomfortable, imperfect diplomacy to de-escalate this, because the implications not just for global energy markets, for the Saudi economy, for the Saudi public, are pretty dire.

Amna Nawaz:

That is the former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney joining us tonight.

Ambassador, thank you so much for your time.

Michael Ratney:

Any time.