French voters block far-right win but leave country without parliamentary majority

Geoff Bennett:

Today, France awoke to the final tally of the second round in its parliamentary election, with results that no polls predicted. The country's right-wing political party was expected to take control of Parliament. Instead, a left-wing coalition won the largest number of seats, but not enough to govern, leaving the country in unprecedented deadlock.

Here's Nick Schifrin.

Nick Schifrin:

Last night, supporters of the far right and far left clashed in the streets, perhaps a preview of the country's coming political pugilism.

For those opposed to the far right, the results sparked rejoicing and relief that the right wing had been blocked. France's usually splintered center and left coordinated in the second round to weaken far right candidates they described as a threat to the republic.

The winner was the new left-wing coalition the New Popular Front, whose most powerful faction is led by one of France's most divisive figures, Jean-Luc Melenchon.

Jean-Luc Melenchon, Founder, La France Insoumise (through interpreter):

The president has the power, the duty to call on the New Popular Front to govern.

Nick Schifrin:

But that demand is expected to go unheeded by France's now weakened president. Emmanuel Macron and his pro-business centrist coalition finished second after losing a quarter of its seats.

As for the far right, its supporters expected jubilation. Their planned party proved muted, and the champagne would only be sipped; 12 million French voted for the National Rally, but, today, they are disappointed, foiled by what there would-be prime minister, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, called an alliance of the dishonorable.

Jordan Bardella, Leader, National Rally Party (through interpreter):

I can understand today the frustration of millions of French people to see that change was called for, but that, once again, Emmanuel Macron made the choice to throw France into the arms of the far left.

Nick Schifrin:

For an embattled President Biden, the takeaway today was more personal.

Joe Biden, President of the United States: There will be no red wave. The polls were wrong in France. There's also right — there's no right wave or tide here in America either.

Nick Schifrin:

And yet National Rally leader Marine Le Pen appears to have erased the stigma of her father, party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, a well-known antisemite convicted of racist speech. The majority of voters rejected Marine Le Pen's vision of tighter borders and less immigration, but they also did not embrace any single alternative, leaving the country more divided than ever.

To discuss the election and its results and how it might impact support for Ukraine, NATO and the European Union, we turn to Tara Varma. She's a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Tara Varma, thanks very much. Welcome to the "NewsHour."

In some ways, we have seen France do this before, the so-called Republican Front. The left and the center coalesced together against the far right. How did it happen this time and why did it work?

Tara Varma, Visiting Fellow, Brookings Institution:

It worked again this time because, between the first round of the snap elections that were held on June 30 and the second round, which were held on July 7, what we saw were a flurry of extreme right far right candidates who were, in the best-case scenario, absolutely incompetent, in the worst-case scenario, absolutely racist, antisemitic, homophobic.

And so we saw really the level of incompetence, and people then ultimately decided not to vote for them. And the Republican Front organized themselves because I think there was a sense that the French people did look into the abyss and didn't want to cede basically their country to the far right.

Nick Schifrin:

At the same time, as I just reported, some 12 million French voters did vote for Le Pen's party.

In general, has she erased the stigma of her father? Is her momentum at this point irreversible?

Tara Varma:

So that's what she says. She says that the tide has risen, that they didn't win this time, but it's inevitable that they will ultimately win, whether it's in the upcoming 2027 presidential election or maybe in another snap election that Emmanuel Macron could call again in a year's time.

What is certain is that they had 89 members of Parliament 10 days ago. They have now 143, and that's from eight only in 2017. So their rise is quite massive and clearly consistent and steady. And it is true that they did win the highest share of the popular vote yesterday. And so I think they will continue playing on the sense of anger and frustration that we have seen basically build up since yesterday.

Nick Schifrin:

Post-World War II France has never had a coalition. The leaders of a would-be coalition, there's no love lost between them.

What will the coalition talks or the hypothetical coalition talks going forward look like?

Tara Varma:

So this is the biggest question that we have right now.

France has not had coalition governments for over 60 years now, but, actually, there are provisions in the Constitution of the Fifth Republic for this to be possible. And they did provision for the capacity to have a coalition government.

What is also true is that newer generations of politicians have never lived through them. So they will have to find an innovative and creative way to think about institutions very differently the days to come.

Nick Schifrin:

There is a deadline, July 18. What if there's no coalition by then?

Tara Varma:

Macron is in a capacity to say that he's going to form a technocratic government, caretaker government that will basically take the country up to at least the end of the summer.

It is not impossible before July 18 that several parties or several coalitions come up with a prime minister and a government. What seems to be happening in the hours as we speak is that Macron will probably turn to the right to see if they can form a coalition their own with Macron's party, leaving the left behind.

I think this is what he would want to do as much as possible.

Nick Schifrin:

What do you believe all of this, the impact of it on what U.S. priorities are when it comes to France, which, of course, is support for Ukraine, strengthening the European Union, and also a good transatlantic relationship?

Tara Varma:

I think there's definitely a sense of relief coming out of Washington, but also of other European capitals.

What we're most probably going to see now is actually a largely continuity in Macron's foreign policy priorities. And so that means continued cooperation with the U.S. ally, continued investment in NATO, continued investment in the European Union, and continued support for Ukraine to ultimately join the European Union.

Apart from the far left, all the other left-wing parties support these policies.

Nick Schifrin:

As I mentioned earlier, Jean-Luc Melenchon, the head of the most popular faction of the new left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, is a divisive figure. He's repeatedly accused Israel of genocide. He himself has been accused of antisemitism.

His critics say that he pushes an unaffordable agenda. How influential will he be?

Tara Varma:

So, he has actually decided that he was going to be the first one to speak yesterday at 8:00 p.m., Paris time, just after the results came in.

And he kind of decided that he was the most representative electoral person to claim that victory, which was also very divisive. But I think, if there is a majority of heads of parties from the left who agree on sidelining him and presenting actually newer faces, revelations actually of this campaign from the left, I think if we see these new faces emerge, then actually there will be a true path for this left-wing coalition.

Nick Schifrin:

Tara Varma, thank you very much.

Tara Varma:

Thank you so much.