GOP 2016 candidates face critical moment as field tightens

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• JUDY WOODRUFF:

  And now to the race for the White House.

  We're two months away from the critical Iowa caucus votes.

  Political director Lisa Desjardins reports on the next phase for the Republican field.

• LISA DESJARDINS:

  The campaigns are now eight months in.

• SEN. TED CRUZ, Republican Presidential Candidate:

  Thank you, and God bless you.

• LISA DESJARDINS:

  Eight months since Ted Cruz's announcement kicked off the race for the 2016 GOP nomination, followed quickly by 16 other Republicans entering the ring.

  Now those faces and the real horse race between them is starting to come into focus.

• TERRY HOLT, Republican Strategist:

  I feel like I have been at the movies for way too long, watching way too many previews, and the main feature hasn't even started yet. But there is some gelling in the race.

• LISA DESJARDINS:

  Terry Holt is a Republican strategist and former staffer for President George W. Bush. The past few months, candidates have dropped out, first Rick Perry, then Scott Walker and, most recently, Bobby Jindal.

• GOV. BOBBY JINDAL, R-La.:

  This is not my time.

  Now, Holt says, the remaining contenders want to make a move.

• TERRY HOLT:

  Everybody thinks they're going to get hit by lightning. And maybe somebody will. The question is whether or not they can bottle that lightning and carry it through other races.

• LISA DESJARDINS:

  A close look at the polls shows sparks, at least, of potential nominees. In late August, Donald Trump, in red, was soaring, but the rest of the pack was close together. October, Ben Carson in blue broke away. But, again, the rest of the field was a muddle of dots.

  Now this month, a few weeks of consistency: Carson down, as Marco Rubio and Cruz move up into spots three and four, and Jeb Bush holds onto fifth. For Rubio and Cruz especially, this is a critical moment.

  GOP strategist Leslie Sanchez believes she knows why: increased concerns about terrorism, ISIS and national security.

• LESLIE SANCHEZ, Republican Strategist:

  Because of that, you are starting to see some movement with Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, who've been talking about foreign policy, strong — and taking and a stronger stand against ISIS, and what they would do in their role at the White House.

• LISA DESJARDINS:

  Rubio's rise comes as he's spent more time talking about how he would deal with ISIS.

• SEN. MARCO RUBIO, Republican Presidential Candidate:

  This is a civilizational struggle between the valleys of freedom and liberty and radical Islamic terror. What happened in Paris could happen here. There is no middle ground. I approve this message, because there can be no arrangement or negotiation. Either they win, or we do.

• LISA DESJARDINS:

  Cruz, meanwhile, is portraying himself as a strong Tea Party leader unflinching against ISIS and critical of President Obama.

• SEN. TED CRUZ:

  I am leading the fight in the U.S. Senate to stop President Obama and Hillary Clinton's plan to bring to America tens of thousands of Syrian Muslim refugees. Why? Because the administration itself admits it cannot vet these refugees to determine if there are ISIS terrorists embedded among them.

• LISA DESJARDINS:

  If those two stay on their current path, moving into a head-to-head competition with Donald Trump, it could force an even broader foreign policy face-off.

• DONALD TRUMP, Republican Presidential Candidate:

  And I like the idea of building a safe zone in Syria.

• CARLY FIORINA, Republican Presidential Candidate:

  We have had a fairly effective bombing campaign over the last couple of days.

• JEB BUSH, Republican Presidential Candidate:

  We have to deal with them from a position of strength.

• LISA DESJARDINS:

  So think of this as the critical build-up to Iowa and the early state votes.

• TERRY HOLT:

  These candidates that have been propped up by the polls are going to have to start proving that they can get votes in these actual primaries and caucus states, and that's when the real fight will begin.

• LISA DESJARDINS:

  It may not yet be the real fight, but voters may be starting to separate who has enough muscle to make it to the final round.

  For the PBS NewsHour, I'm Lisa Desjardins.