How GOP campaigns are courting Iowa and New Hampshire voters in the final weeks

Geoff Bennett:

Republicans in Iowa will be the first to cast their votes in support of a presidential candidate in less than two weeks. That's followed a week later by New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary.

To give us a read on how the campaigns are shaping up in their respective states, we turn to Radio Iowa news director Kay Henderson and New Hampshire Public Radio senior political reporter and editor Josh Rogers.

Welcome to you both.

Kay, we will start with you, since Iowa votes first.

Ron DeSantis, who has spent a ton of time and money campaigning in Iowa, today spotlighted what he sees as Donald Trump's broken promises on immigration.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Presidential Candidate: Donald Trump is running saying he's going to do the largest deportation in history, which is interesting, because I was at his rallies in 2016 where he said the exact same thing.

And what was the result? Fewer deportations than the first term of Barack Obama. That is not getting the job done.

Geoff Bennett:

Why aren't arguments like that resonating? Ron DeSantis' initial premise for his campaign was that he was Donald Trump without the baggage.

And yet Donald Trump, his polling average right now in Iowa sits at 50 percent. What accounts for that?

Kay Henderson, News Director, Radio Iowa:

Well, you have a big group of Iowa Republicans who plan to vote for President Trump.

And DeSantis is appealing to people who may be inclined not to vote for Trump. And in the end, they may actually go into a caucus and cast a vote for Donald Trump. So he's walking a very steady line here, in that he is criticizing Trump policies, that he's making the argument didn't come to the fore or come to fruition during the Trump presidency as a way to try to make the closing argument.

Geoff Bennett:

Kay, how are Donald Trump's legal troubles and his authoritarian impulses viewed by Republican voters in Iowa?

Kay Henderson:

Well, the polling shows that they have made no difference at all.

And if you talk to people at the rallies, in some respects, it has increased their ardor, if you will, for the former president.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, Kay, for decades, Iowa had been the center of the political universe, but no longer. Democrats removed Iowa entirely as the leadoff state on that party's presidential nominating calendar.

What significance does it hold for Republicans in this election cycle?

Kay Henderson:

Well, it will be the first test of whether Donald Trump can roll to a sizable victory.

The key here is, what is the margin between Trump and these two main challengers, DeSantis and Nikki Haley? The question is, will Trump score a victory here, something akin to what Al Gore did in 2000, when he was the sitting vice president and got 60 percent of Democrats' votes, or in 2000, when George W. Bush, who was the favorite heading in, got more than 41 percent in a competitive race?

So those are sort of the stakes for Trump. Can he overcome what happened to him last time around, when he did not have a campaign apparatus that was at the precinct level and was sort of depending on in 2016 his popularity to carry him to victory?

He has a very much different organization in Iowa this time around. He is organized at the precinct level. He's been having these events around the state, which are in smaller venues than one might suspect, having seen lots of Trump rallies. And he is connecting with people that are precinct captains. They're people on the ground in Iowa.

Geoff Bennett:

Let's shift our focus to New Hampshire, where polling averages show a tighter race.

Josh, is there time for the candidates not named Trump to close the gap?

Josh Rogers, New Hampshire Public Radio:

Well, they hope so. And it remains to be seen.

Certainly, what happens in Iowa could affect what happens here in New Hampshire. And it's evident in the polls and also out at events that former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is certainly clearly in second place here, picking up steam. Whether there's an electorate that can deliver her close enough to Trump — I mean, a lot of the expectations-setting that Kay was talking about going on in Iowa, that's going on here as well.

New Hampshire was the first state Donald Trump won in 2016. He hasn't campaigned here a lot. And I'm not sure the grassroots outreach that Kay indicated may be happening in Iowa has been going on for Trump here. Nikki Haley has the endorsement of our sitting governor, Chris Sununu. That will help her.

How much it helps her is an open question. There's time for her to catch up, but she's still got a great deal of ground to make up, if you believe the polls.

Geoff Bennett:

So, Josh, is there an expectation that more Democrats will switch their party affiliation and participate in the Republican primary, potentially as a means of voting against Donald Trump?

Josh Rogers:

Well, Democrats are prohibited from voting in the Republican primary. If you are a registered Democrat, you must register — you must vote in the Democratic primary. If you are an undeclared voter, you can pick the ballot you vote on.

So while Democrats can't vote in the Republican primary, there are lots of Democratic-leaning independent voters that the non-Trump candidates are certainly reaching out to. And so where they go — I mean, where the independents go in the New Hampshire primary tends to be with the winning candidate.

And so that's something that all the campaigns are fighting for, that sort of voter.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, Nikki Haley was in New Hampshire today, and she was making the generational argument for her candidacy.

Nikki Haley (R), Presidential Candidate: Republicans have lost the last seven out of eight popular votes for president. That's nothing to be proud of. We should want to win the majority of Americans. But the only way we're going to win the majority of the Americans is if we get a new generational leader that leaves the negativity in the baggage behind and focuses on the solutions in the future.

Geoff Bennett:

Is that a convincing pitch, a convincing argument for her? I mean, what issues are candidates gaining traction on in New Hampshire?

Josh Rogers:

Well, that's certainly a pitch that has been a staple in her stump speech from the very beginning.

And Nikki Haley is interesting, in that her messaging hasn't really shifted much over the course of this campaign. A generational argument is a big component of it. In terms of issues, you know, the affordability of pretty much everything is something voters will tell you they're concerned about.

Housing costs and availability is a big issue here in New Hampshire. International affairs. A lot of voters who are attracted to Nikki Haley cite her experience at the U.N. And some of them cite her more interventionist views in terms of the United States' role overseas. She makes a point of linking the war in Ukraine with China and Taiwan and the situation in Gaza as being all linked.

And that is something that some of the voters turning out to see her find compelling. But the generational thrust is a big one. And there are a lot of voters in New Hampshire and elsewhere who are just fatigued and not enthusiastic about the notion of four more years of Joe Biden or four more years of Donald Trump.

And so her message on that front is finding an audience.

Geoff Bennett:

Kay, same question to you.

We focus so much on the personalities. What about the policies? What do Iowa voters, Iowa Republicans say they care about in this election cycle?

Kay Henderson:

Well, the biggest applause line at most of these events for all the candidates is how they describe their policies on immigration and Border Patrol.

But I do want to touch off on something that my colleague in New Hampshire just raised. The most interesting thing about the Nikki Haley crowd in the past couple of weeks is that it's being populated in part by people who have participated in Iowa Republican Party caucuses and in Iowa Democratic Party caucuses.

And I talked to several people who are considering becoming a registered Republican for a day at a Nikki Haley event this past weekend because they don't want to see either Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the White House this time next year.

Geoff Bennett:

Kay Henderson of Radio Iowa and Josh Rogers of New Hampshire Public Radio, our thanks to you both.

Josh Rogers:

You're welcome.

Kay Henderson:

Thank you.