How Nebraska’s ‘blue dot’ could be the deciding factor on Election Day

Amna Nawaz:

Returning now to our top story, the race for the presidency.

Once the final votes of the 2024 campaign are cast and tallied, the final chapter of this election season may hinge on a blue dot far from any swing state battleground.

Lisa Desjardins is back now with this report.

Lisa Desjardins:

Omaha Democrats in deep red Nebraska embody the symbol of their movement, a blue dot on the state's political landscape.

Nebraska law gives each congressional district its own electoral vote and the dot, unpredictably, has come to represent how the area around Omaha could go to and be critical for Kamala Harris.

Ruth Huebner, Blue Dot Nebraska:

There's a focus on our district, and you feel like you matter.

Jason Brown, Blue Dot Nebraska:

We love the light shining on us this round. We're not being ignored. We're not a flyover state.

Lisa Desjardins:

It started almost accidentally after Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee. Jason Brown spray-painted a blue dot on an old sign to represent Democratic-leaning Omaha.

Ruth Huebner:

I'm like, oh, a blue dot. I love it. It was artistic. I'm like, stick it in the front yard. I love it.

Lisa Desjardins:

Then the neighbors wanted one, and then the neighborhood, and dot, dot, dot.

Jason Brown:

I looked like I was trying out for the Blue Man Group or an extra on a Smurf movie or something.

(Laughter)

Lisa Desjardins:

They have now printed and handed out nearly 15,000 of the signs. And everyone sees them, including Republicans.

Mary Harper, Red State Nebraska:

I have a blue dot across the street from me, one house down. It's fine. I really do think that we need to be more accepting of the other side. There's one sign that's a big red do eating the little blue dots, if you have seen that one. They're fun. It's another way to express yourself.

Lisa Desjardins:

Mary Harper is a grandmother, retiree and volunteer neighborhood champion with Red State Nebraska, devoting countless hours of her free time supporting GOP candidates up and down the ballot.

Mary Harper:

Well, both sides say this is the most consequential race in the history of the country. We do hear that every four years.

Lisa Desjardins:

Every single electoral vote is going to matter. But here's why Nebraska could be the decider. There is a plausible scenario where Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin all go for Harris and the remaining swing states all go for Trump.

That leads to a scenario where Nebraska's one electoral vote — we mark that down here — could be the deciding factor. So if it goes for Trump, it's a 269-269 tie. That would likely lead to his win in the House of Representatives. But if it goes for Harris, it gives her the presidency.

(Crosstalk)

Lisa Desjardins:

Democratic V.P. candidate Tim Walz was born in Nebraska, and he was in Omaha last month, underscoring the importance to their campaign.

Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), Vice Presidential Candidate: Hello again, neighbors. It's good to be home.

(Cheering)

Lisa Desjardins:

A recent New York Times/Siena poll found Trump up 55-40 statewide, but Harris winning 54-42 in the blue dot district. If she won Omaha, she'd repeat Joe Biden's 2020 victory in the district and be just the third Democrat to win it in the past 30 years.

Kay Carne, Nebraska Voter:

I am a — probably not that unique of a voter in Nebraska. I am splitting my ticket.

Lisa Desjardins:

Kay Carne has mixed political feelings this year. She supported Nikki Haley, but left the Republican Party after Trump won the primary. She will vote for Harris for president and, for Congress, the incumbent Republican, Don Bacon.

She's still weighing her options in the surprisingly tight U.S. Senate race.

Kay Carne:

I really think the future direction of our country is at stake this year.

Lisa Desjardins:

In the Gateway to the West, a theme. They feel they are also the gateway to the next presidency.

Jason Brown:

The stakes seem frightening.

Ruth Huebner:

We are at a critical path right now.

Mary Harper:

We have such different approaches for how we think this country should go and how it should be run. It's huge this year.

Lisa Desjardins:

In Nebraska's blue dot, many visions for the country and one potentially decisive electoral vote.

For the PBS "News Hour," I'm Lisa Desjardins.