How the 2020 census data has started new gerrymandering battles

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• Judy Woodruff:

  All across the country, states are busy at work, with new 2020 census data in hand redrawing congressional lines that will help determine the balance of power in Washington for the next decade.

  To check in on the status of this reapportionment in some key states, I'm joined by an expert on the subject. He's David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report.

  Dave Wasserman, welcome back to the "NewsHour."

  So, at this point in this process, which party has an advantage?

• Dave Wasserman, The Cook Political Report:

  Well, it depends how you measure it.

  The redistricting process is going better for Democrats than initially expected, because Democrats did get favorable maps out of commission states, in California, New Jersey and Michigan. They also could benefit from the states where they got to redraw lines in Illinois and Oregon and New Mexico, whereas Republicans have drawn several defensive gerrymanders, where they have focused on shoring up their own incumbents in places like Texas.

  But we're also watching a number of court battles unfolding. And this will be the determinate of who comes out ahead. And Democrats have been suing to overturn Republican-drawn maps on state constitutional grounds in Ohio and North Carolina, and they just received a favorable ruling on racial grounds in Alabama.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Just a couple of basics. What is this reapportionment supposed to accomplish? It's every 10 years after the new census numbers come out.

  What's it supposed to accomplish? And, in most cases, it's done by the legislature, but in some by an outside commission?

• Dave Wasserman:

  That's right.

  And this really happens in two steps. The first is reapportionment, which is, the census determines how many seats each state gets in Congress for the next 10 years. We found that back out in April. And Texas is picking up two seats, five other states picking up one seat each, seven states losing a seat, including California for the first time since gaining statehood.

  But the bigger impact is how the lines are then redrawn within every state to rebalance population according to the census data down to the block level. And Republicans have more control over the process than Democrats. In states where legislatures, partisan legislatures, draw the lines Republicans hold 20 states, totaling 187 districts, whereas Democrats have the final say in eight states totaling 75 districts.

  There are 10 states have independent or bipartisan commissions. There are also six states where control is split between the parties and courts may need to step in.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And let's talk about what it looks like so far.

  Of the states that have dealt with this and had their maps, their redrawn lines approved, I think 33 of the 50 states at this point have had their maps approved.

• Dave Wasserman:

  That's true. And some are pending litigation.

  But, for the most part, because geographic polarization is so high and straight-ticket voting is so high, how lines are drawn predetermines election outcomes. And so, if you have a district that's drawn that Trump would have won with 55 percent or that Biden won with at least 55 percent, you can be reasonably sure that that district is going to go blue or red.

  And so parties who are redrawing these lines, they have every incentive to draw safe seats, so they don't have to keep spending money on them. We could see the number of competitive districts decline by as much as a third this cycle.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And, as you mentioned, Dave Wasserman, the courts have gotten involved in a number of these states. One of these states, Alabama, you mentioned it a moment ago.

  Tell us what's happening there.

• Dave Wasserman:

  So, this is a surprising ruling, because the federal panel that issued this ruling blocking the Republican-drawn map, two out of the three judges are Trump appointees.

  And yet the federal court decided that the map was a racial gerrymander, because it failed to create a second Black opportunity or majority seat. Keep in mind that both the current Republican-drawn plan and the one that Republicans in Alabama adopted for the next 10 years only drew one majority Black Seat out of seven, even though Black residents make up about 26 percent of the voting age population.

  So, this is a — this could be a landmark case. It's going to be appealed to the Supreme Court directly by the state Republicans. And the outcome at the Supreme Court could have reverberations across the Deep South in situations where the Voting Rights Act is open to interpretation.

• Judy Woodruff:

  All eyes are going to be watching this, as you said a minute ago, Democrats doing better in some cases. But we will see what happens in that particular instance.

  And one other example I did want to ask you about, Dave Wasserman, was New York, where there was supposed to be a bipartisan commission drawing these lines.

• Dave Wasserman:

  That's right.

  And in a number of states, there were reforms undertaken that resulted in an advisory commissions. But, ultimately, the legislature has the final say. And this is a way for partisans to kind of get around the desire for reform.

  In New York, it's likely that Democrats, who already control 19 out of 27 congressional seats there, will end up drawing the map in Albany, and they could seize as many as 23 of the 26 seats that New York will receive for the next decade, if they're able to gerrymander the boundaries the way they'd like so.

  So, these decisions over maps in state capitals will have enormous implications in the race for control of Congress, not only in 2022, but for the entire next decade.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Enormous complications. And, as we are saying, only, what, two-thirds of the states have their maps approved, so it's very much a live process still working its way through.

  Dave Wasserman, we will be checking in with you again later this year.

  Thank you.

• Dave Wasserman:

  Thanks, Judy.