How the U.S.-led strikes on Houthis in Yemen could alter the conflict in the Middle East

Geoff Bennett:

The U.S. strikes against the Houthis in Yemen mark a significant escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The world is now waiting to see whether the strikes will accomplish their goal to stop the Houthis from targeting ships in the Red Sea or raise the risk of an even wider conflict.

Nadwa Al-Dawsari was born and raised in Yemen and is a nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C.

Thank you for being with us.

And how will the U.S.-led strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, how will that affect the militant group's strategy moving forward, in your view?

Nadwa Al-Dawsari, Middle East Institute:

Well, I mean, the Houthis have survived eight years of intense airstrikes by the Saudis and the Emiratis, and they survived that and even emerged stronger than before.

So, airstrikes might neutralize the Houthi threat on the Red Sea, shipping, but that would be temporarily.

Geoff Bennett:

What impact will these airstrikes have on the Houthis' standing in Yemen? Do they welcome these airstrikes?

Nadwa Al-Dawsari:

Yemenis are concerned about these airstrikes because they lived the horrors of airstrikes for eight years, and these airstrikes caused a lot of civilian casualties, a lot of destruction, but also they made the Houthis stronger.

So Yemenis at large don't want to go through another episode of airstrikes that only benefit the Houthis, at the expense of Yemenis. Now, the Houthis are still extremely unpopular, but the Houthis are using the Gaza war and the war with Israel and America, which is their narrative, that they're at war with Israel and America, they're using that to oppress the population and silence critics.

They're using that to force families to send their children to indoctrination camps, to recruit fighters, to recruit children at a mass scale. And so these airstrikes could be very good for the Houthis. The Houthis want war. They want confrontation for the U.S. They want confrontation with Israel because — and that's why they continue to attack the ships in the Red Sea.

That's how they build — they make an excuse to oppress the population. So, this will be good for the Houthis if it's only airstrikes.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, in order for the U.S. goal of deterrence to be effective on a more permanent basis, what kind of approach would be required?

Nadwa Al-Dawsari:

Well, the U.S. — the Houthis have proven to be a strategic threat to security, regional security and international shipping.

And so only a strategic approach will mitigate the Houthi threat. Now, airstrikes by the U.S. and the U.K. are not going to address that. The U.S. and the international community need to support Yemeni government forces to weaken the Houthis militarily and rebuild Yemen.

Geoff Bennett:

The Houthis, as you well know, are also backed by Iran, which has supplied militias across the Middle East as a way of stepping up its own influence.

How independent are the Houthis from Iran? Are they acting on their own, or are they following Iran's instructions right now?

Nadwa Al-Dawsari:

It's both.

So the Houthis are not Iran puppets. They don't carry Iran orders. Having said that, the Houthis are very strong allies with Iran, and they both have a long-term goal in the region, which is Iran's expansionist agenda. And that includes weakening Saudi Arabia, taking Mecca and eventually liberating Jerusalem, in their own words, and destroying Israel, more importantly, also pushing the U.S. and the West out of the region.

The Houthis also are capable of acting on their own. Iran has empowered the Houthis and strengthened them. And I'm not, even sure if Iran decided that the Houthis need to de-escalate today, that the Houthis would do that.

Geoff Bennett:

The White House says the strikes last night were not intended to ignite a wider regional war. You can argue that, with the U.S.-led attacks against Houthi targets in Yemen, that the Israel-Hamas war has already escalated into a regional conflict.

The question is whether or not it can be contained. How do you view it?

Nadwa Al-Dawsari:

Things could inspire a lot of control. The risk is high.

Having said that, I think it's important for the U.S. and the West to address the Houthi problem, and that's not going to happen with airstrikes. And, also, it's not going to happen with putting boots on the ground. A more sustainable solution would be to work with the Yemeni government and strengthen Yemeni forces, so that they can weaken the Houthis.

Now Iran and other proxies might still exist, but the Houthis have proven to be the most strategic threat to everyone, basically, in the region.

Geoff Bennett:

Nadwa Al-Dawsari is a nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

Thank you.

Nadwa Al-Dawsari:

Thank you for having me.