How this week’s election in Ohio could decide the fate of November’s abortion vote

Amna Nawaz:

In the year since the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade, a number of states have put abortion rights on the ballot. This year, it's Ohio, where voters will decide whether to enshrine abortion access in the state Constitution.

But, as Laura Barrón-López reports, before that vote in November, Ohioans will decide tomorrow whether to raise the threshold of support needed for such votes.

Laura Barrón-López:

Amna, it's a rare August election.

And there will be just one decision for voters tomorrow. Should the state require 60 percent support for future constitutional amendments to pass? Throughout early voting, nearly 700,000 people turned out to the polls, and it's turned into an expensive ad war.

Woman:

Who are you?

Man:

A new Republican Congressman. Now that we're in charge, we're banning birth control.

Woman:

This is our decision, not yours. Get out of our bedroom.

Man:

I won the last election. I'm not going anywhere.

Narrator:

The out-of-state groups fighting Issue 1 keep saying it's just about abortion, but it's not, and they know it. These special interest groups encourage minors to get sex change surgeries and want to trash parental consent.

Laura Barrón-López:

Following this closely is Karen Kasler. She's the statehouse news bureau chief for Ohio Public Radio and TV.

Karen, thanks so much for joining.

Those ads are just a taste of what voters have been bombarded with ahead of this special election. And we should note that this ballot measure is not about contraception and that those organizations and Democrats mentioned are not pushing for children to get sex changes and are not trying to get rid of parental consent.

But what are you hearing from voters about how they plan to vote tomorrow?

Karen Kasler, Ohio Public Radio and Television: There's been a tremendous amount of interest in this election, which is a bit of a surprise, because, first of all, August, special elections don't usually get a whole lot of traction, which is why Republican lawmakers voted to ban most of them last year.

And then, when this particular issue came up, and it became clear that groups were going to try to put an abortion rights and reproductive rights amendment on the November ballot, Republican lawmakers decided to go ahead and do this August special election.

And so those messages that you're hearing in those ads — and they are misleading — really do relate more to the November abortion amendment than they do to what this amendment would do, which would increase the voter approval threshold for future amendments to 60 percent and also make it a lot more difficult for citizens and groups that want to propose constitutional amendments to get on the ballot in the first place.

Laura Barrón-López:

And what do we know about voter turnout so far?

Karen Kasler:

Voter turnout has been pretty brisk.

I mean, that 700,000 number that you mentioned in the introduction there, that's more than twice the number of people who voted early in the primary in May of 2022 last year, when we had contested races for the U.S. Senate and for governor. So, this is a really, really big deal.

And it's a bit of a surprise for some people. There were some questions about whether there would be big voter turnout, because it's August. People are thinking about other things besides voting. And the real question, of course, being if you're going to make a change to the Constitution, should you rely on such a small number of registered voters to do that?

Laura Barrón-López:

This election, this special election, has gained national attention.

What can you tell us about where the money is coming from in those ads we just showed?

Karen Kasler:

Well, the ad total for radio and TV ads so far is around $22 million now. And that's just the official campaigns.

You have a lot of outside groups, a lot of dark money groups that have also weighed in. And, of course, you have got mailers, you have got calls, you have got a lot of money pouring in on this. And I think it's really seen as a kind of test run for what's going to happen in November, because, certainly, abortion rights and reproductive rights on the fall ballot is a big deal.

And we're going to see a lot of interest in that in other red states. The amendments that would guarantee abortion rights or uphold abortion rights have passed in other red states, but not by 60 percent. So that's why that 60 percent figure on the Tuesday ballot is such a big deal.

I think this is just a preview of what we're going to see in November with an awful lot of money coming in from out of state. One thing that's interesting is, Republicans who proposed this and said they wanted to keep out-of-state special interests with a lot of money from buying their way into the Constitution.

But the money for this, for and against, these ads, is coming from out of state almost overwhelmingly.

Laura Barrón-López:

The Republican-controlled state legislature called this special election. Could you remind us why they did that, but also how it will ultimately, could ultimately determine abortion access in the state?

Karen Kasler:

Well, they called this vote when they couldn't make the May primary ballot.

Like I mentioned earlier, most of — most August special elections were banned under a law that passed last year. And when Republican lawmakers put this forward to try to make sure that it was in place before the November vote on abortion rights, there was a lawsuit. The Ohio Supreme Court ruled in a party-line vote that the law that banned most August special elections did not apply to lawmakers who were putting a constitutional amendment before voters.

So, certainly, whatever happens on Tuesday, that will potentially make a big difference in that November ballot issue, that November amendment on reproductive rights and abortion access.

Laura Barrón-López:

Looking ahead to November, how are both sides preparing for that amendment vote?

Karen Kasler:

Well, I think that question of whether it'll take 60 percent to pass that or whether it will take us simple majority, which is what the law is now and what would remain if Issue 1 fails, that's the big question.

And so both people who support abortion rights and people who are anti-abortion are really looking at that. And there's another issue that potentially comes into play here. There is a law that has been proposed that would legalize recreational marijuana in Ohio. That appears to also be likely to make the November ballot.

And that could certainly make a difference in how the reproductive rights and abortion access amendment is talked about and the messaging around that.

Laura Barrón-López:

If this amendment passes tomorrow, Karen, it would put more requirements on citizens to get anything they want on the ballot.

But the rules for the Republican — for the Republican supermajority in the legislature to propose constitutional amendments, those rules wouldn't change. So what impact does this vote tomorrow have on what ballot measures make it to voters and who gets to decide what's important enough to vote on?

Karen Kasler:

I think that's been one of the most controversial and in some cases overlooked part of Issue 1 on Tuesday's ballot, this idea that groups and citizens that want to put constitutional amendments before voters would have to get signatures from all 88 Ohio counties, not 44, which is the current law.

So, essentially, one county could block a constitutional amendment from even being considered before the 60 percent voter threshold would have to even be reached. And there are groups that say that there is almost no way, it would be impossible, basically, for grassroots organizations to get those signatures from all 88 counties.

And that was something that some Republicans had not even supported when this was originally proposed, but it was added in as the process went along.

Laura Barrón-López:

That's Karen Kasler, statehouse news bureau chief for Ohio Public Radio and TV.

Thank you so much for your time.

Karen Kasler:

Great to talk to you. Thanks.