Is it safe to gather for New Year’s Eve? Here’s what one doctor recommends

Amna Nawaz:

Well, the U.S. has set a new daily record for COVID cases, topping 580,000 new cases yesterday, and shattering Wednesday's total of 488,000.

For the first time in the pandemic, America recorded more than two million cases within just one week. The nation is now averaging more than 300,000 new cases a day.

All of this comes as new data suggests those highly-sought-after rapid antigen tests may not be as effective as hoped in detecting the Omicron variant.

Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo is a physician and epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco. She joins us now.

Dr. Bibbins-Domingo, welcome back to the "NewsHour." Thanks for making the time.

People are seeing these headlines. I want to get right to what is at the top of everyone's minds. They want to know what to make of them, especially ahead of potential New Year's Eve gatherings. What would you say to them?

Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo:

Right.

Well, we are headed into a really challenging January. And this is just the beginning of the rise in cases. The good news is that, if we look at how other countries have dealt with an Omicron surge, it looks like a surge that lasts about four to six weeks.

But the key here is that how high this crest of this wave rises, how broad this wave is, how much damage happens over the next month, that's entirely in our hands. And it means we have to make good choices starting tonight.

Amna Nawaz:

What does that mean for tonight for people who are vaccinated, who have a test in hand? How should people determine whether or not they go ahead with celebrations tonight?

Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo:

Right.

I think even vaccinated and boosted, I would be avoiding crowds tonight. If you look at the positivity rates in our major cities, if you look at the positivity rates in all of our states, they're really high right now. And it suggests that one in 20, one in 10, one in four people in a large crowd is going to be infected.

And with breakthrough cases happening, it's something that I would avoid.

The other thing I would say, if you're vaccinated and boosted and are spending time mostly with vaccinated, boosted people — that's the best — is the mask. And high-quality masks, the N95, the KN95s, are going to be the best, probably something we haven't emphasized as much as we could.

If you have to wear the surgical mask, having something on that's tighter fitting, a surgical mask, plus a cloth mask over top, can offer some additional layer of protection.

But, really, if you can at all alter your plans to be with a smaller crowd that's mostly vaccinated and boosted, that's the best.

Amna Nawaz:

So, masking is key to all of this, and so is testing.

And there's been some new information this week from the FDA I want to get your take on. They said early data suggests that those rapid antigen test, those at-home test so many people are clamoring for do detect the Omicron variant, but may have reduced sensitivity.

So, Doctor, what did that mean? Do they work or do they not?

Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo:

Right.

I think the key here is that we need to see data whenever there is a new variant. And, luckily, the FDA and the NIH are giving us — doing the studies to help us to understand these tests.

My understanding of the data that we have right now is that, in fact, this test does work. And it is a useful tool. It detects the Omicron variant. The variant is altered in a way that the test still is really — can find that virus.

What it can't do, though, is tell you with 100 percent certainty that, when you get a negative test, you're not actually infectious. So the way I think about it is that, if you have a positive test, if you see that line come up positive, even if it's a faint line, you have COVID, you should act like you have COVID, you should not second-guess this test.

If you don't have that positive line, it might mean that you're negative, but it might mean that this test is not as good as being with high certainty that you are negative for COVID. And that's where we have to — that's where we have to be a little more cautious.

But what I worry about is that the message should not be these tests are not useful. They're absolutely useful if people act on a positive test and avoid contact with others.

Amna Nawaz:

So, Doctor, in about the minute we have left, I have to ask you.

I think it's fair to say a lot of us thought this year would be the year we put the pandemic behind us. And it was not. So, how will our approach, how should our approach to COVID change as we go into yet another pandemic year?

Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo:

Right.

We are going to be living with this virus. But I think living with this virus means neither shutting down and being anxious and fearful all the time, nor throwing caution to the wind and just acting as if nothing matters.

I think the pandemic has taught us that our own actions matter. We have to assess our own risk, but our own actions also matter for others. And we have to both individually and collectively make decisions that are going to keep ourselves and those around us healthy.

We need to — these are going to evolve over time. And I think what the pandemic is teaching us is, we're going to have to understand those lessons that were true at the start of the pandemic, even more true now, but doubling down on understanding how to keep ourselves and others safe, as we learn to live side by side with this virus.

Amna Nawaz:

Here's hoping everyone's doing what they can to keep themselves and everyone around them safe.

That is Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo from the University of California, San Francisco.

Thank you so much for being with us. And happy new year to you.

Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo:

Thanks. Happy new year.