New book ‘World on the Brink’ argues U.S. failing to deter Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Geoff Bennett:

This week, China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin inaugurated a new era of partnership just before Taiwan inaugurates a new president on Monday.

A new book argues that Taiwan is at the center of China's challenge to U.S. power and influence in Asia.

Here's Nick Schifrin.

Nick Schifrin:

The Biden administration calls China the only country in the world with the will, intent and military strength to change the world order. It says China threatens the U.S. and allied interests all over the world.

And now the U.S.' national security strategy prioritizes confronting China. How did Washington and Beijing get to this point? How strong are Washington and Beijing compared to each other? And how should the U.S. approach its relationship to China?

Those questions are at the heart of a new book, "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century."

The author is Dmitri Alperovitch, with Garrett Graff. Dmitri joins me in the studio.

Dmitri, thanks very much. Welcome back.

Dmitri Alperovitch, Author, "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": Thank you.

Nick Schifrin:

You start the book with a scenario. It's right after Election Day 2028, and Beijing decides to invade Taiwan. Is that the future we're headed towards?

Dmitri Alperovitch:

Well, look, I think that period of 2028, potentially, through 2032, when you could see Xi Jinping at the twilight of his power — he's going to be 79 in 2032, when he's up for Communist Party election once again.

And I believe that he wants to do it on his own watch, just like Putin wanted to invade Ukraine. He's in his 70s. Xi Jinping is in his 70s. Both men are driven by their egos. They don't only want to take these countries, Ukraine in the case of Putin, Taiwan in the case of China, but they want to be the ones to do it, because they want to go down into the pantheon of history and be presented as a great leaders of their country.

Nick Schifrin:

You call it Cold War 2. Why?

Dmitri Alperovitch:

When you compare it to the first Cold War, the similarities are just numerous.

We have an ideological struggle and authoritarians versus democracy that the Biden administration talks about. You have an arms race, both a conventional one and a nuclear one. You have a space race. You have a trade war. And you also have a tech war. You have a spy war. And on top of all of this, you have a global competition for supremacy between the United States and China that plays out in the diplomatic sphere, in the military sphere, and in the economic sphere all over the world.

Nick Schifrin:

Let's go back to what you call a turning point.

You write that China achieving presence in the Spratly Islands and the South China Sea near the Philippines was — quote — "a microcosm of the modern China challenge, America's failure to read China correctly, and its failure or disinterest in acting earlier to counter its rival's rise."

Why?

Dmitri Alperovitch:

So the Chinese have been practicing this salami-slicing strategy, where they have been building up these artificial islands, encroaching on the disputed territories of Vietnam and now the Philippines, and building up military installations, even though at first they said that they had no interest in doing that.

And, today, you look at the South China Sea, it's become a lake for the Chinese Navy. What they're trying to do now is do the same thing in the East China Sea.

Nick Schifrin:

So what should the U.S. do about this?

You describe the overall approach to China as this, an echo really of what the U.S. did to the Soviet Union, "patiently practicing deterrence and waiting out the inevitable economic-driven decline."

Why is that the overall approach?

Dmitri Alperovitch:

Look, we believe that we have all the strengths, and China is actually incredibly weak. Its economy is in stagnation now. It is fundamentally contained by U.S. allies and U.S. bases in the Pacific.

If China looks out at the world, it sees Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines surrounded by U.S. military bases, U.S. allies, completely contained, and its navy is not able to get out to the broader Pacific without going through the choke points in the so-called first-island chain.

Nick Schifrin:

Militarily, though, as you know, there are some people who are worried the U.S. isn't doing enough, and that China actually would be able to practice the denial of U.S. ships in the territory that it claims as its own.

Dmitri Alperovitch:

Well, that's right, because even though we're stronger on paper or on spreadsheets, spreadsheets don't go to war. And context matters.

And there's no question that we could defeat the Chinese military easily if we were fighting a battle in Atlantic. But that's not the case. We would be fighting if we do fight in East China Sea next to their shores, in the Taiwan Strait, and that's what they have been practicing and building capability for the last 40 years, and we're just now desperately trying to catch up.

Nick Schifrin:

Not only has the Biden administration expanded the military footprint, but also political agreements with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and between those countries. Does that kind of thing deter Xi Jinping?

Dmitri Alperovitch:

It's all about creating dilemmas for him. If he's thinking that there's going to be U.S. military forces shooting missiles at his ships crossing the strait from the Philippines, from Japan, from Guam, which is a little bit further out, potentially even on Taiwan itself, that's going to make this much more difficult.

Nick Schifrin:

Let me ask a basic question. Why is Taiwan so important to the U.S.?

Dmitri Alperovitch:

So a lot of people talk about chips, and chips are certainly important. And Taiwan manufactures the vast majority of the advanced ships. But it's also much more important than that.

If you control Taiwan, you dominate East Asia. It's on the — right next to Japan, right next to the Philippines. Those countries would feel much less safe if China controls Taiwan and is able to project power on the eastern shore of Taiwan, across that Pacific, push the U.S. out all the way back to Hawaii, and establish dominance in the region, where you have 50 percent of the world's GDP, most of the supply chains, most of the economic growth.

Nick Schifrin:

This week, the Biden administration is announcing new tariffs on electric vehicles. The Biden administration has continued most of the Trump era tariffs, which remain intact.

Does economic pressure deter Xi Jinping?

Dmitri Alperovitch:

I think it helps.

And you have to apply all elements of our power, military power, diplomatic, and economic, to try to deter him, to convince him that if — even if he succeeds in taking Taiwan, the impact on the Chinese economy would be disastrous.

Nick Schifrin:

Do you believe Taiwan is taking enough steps to defend itself?

Dmitri Alperovitch:

I think they're moving in that direction, but too slowly.

And they're not focusing enough on asymmetric capabilities. The key is to prevent Taiwan — China from coming across the Taiwan Strait in significant numbers. I believe, if they establish a presence on the Taiwanese island, it's game over. If they're able to bring hundreds of thousands of troops, it's going to be very, very difficult for the Taiwanese to defend themselves.

But if they manage to sink those ships with mines, with anti-ship missiles, if they're able to defend their cities with air defense capabilities, I believe they can win.

Nick Schifrin:

And then, finally, is the U.S. doing enough to help Taiwan defend itself?

Dmitri Alperovitch:

I think, again, we're doing a lot. The head of INDOPACOM, Admiral Paparo, I think, believes that he can defend Taiwan if he's so ordered, and we're certainly building up capabilities.

The INDOPACOM command that you just visited in Hawaii, they are preparing for war, and they're getting most of the resources right now. And the key to this is the political decision. Will the president, whoever is it's going to be in 2028 or beyond, will they order the Americans to fight for Taiwan?

And I think it's, at best, a 50/50 proposition.

Nick Schifrin:

Dmitri Alperovitch, the book is "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century."

Thanks very much.

Dmitri Alperovitch:

Thank you.