New poll shows striking change in Americans’ views on political violence

Geoff Bennett:

The latest PBS News/NPR Marist poll out today shows that nearly a third of Americans now believe political violence may be necessary to get the country back on track.

That's up from 19 percent just a year-and-a-half ago. It follows a series of high-profile attacks, including the June killing of a Democratic state legislator and her husband in Minnesota, and the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk in Utah last month.

Cynthia Miller-Idriss, a professor at American University who studies polarization and extremism, says the rising support for political violence is translating into real acts, and the trend is deeply alarming.

Cynthia Miller-Idriss, American University:

It's just a horrific moment to see that people believe, honestly believe that there's no other alternative at this point than to resort to political violence. We have had years now of rising support for political violence and willingness to participate in it.

And now we're seeing actual rising acts of political violence follow on the heels of that. So having this go up even more is a real wake-up call. It should be a real wake-up call.

Geoff Bennett:

The poll also tackles the administration's handling of free speech and a number of other issues.

Joining us now to break it all down is NPR's senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.

Always great to see you.

Domenico Montanaro, Political Editor, NPR:

Great to be with you.

Geoff Bennett:

So what's driving the increase in Americans who now say that violence might be necessary?

Domenico Montanaro:

Well, it's really fascinating because it went up 11 points. It's 30 points now in our poll for people who are saying that they might have to resort to violence to be able to get the country back on track.

It was 19 percent back in April of 2024. What's driving that here? Mostly Democrats. Only 12 percent of Democrats back in April of 2024 said that — said this. Now it's up to 28 percent, a huge jump, really, I mean, statistically very significant. But I will say that Republicans are still higher than Democrats. They're at 31 percent. So they also went up from 28 percent, about the same, but still a slight increase.

Even a quarter of independents are feeling this way now, having gone up seven points as well.

Geoff Bennett:

On the other hand, the poll also shows that most Americans, about 77 percent, say politically motivated violence is a major problem in this country. Another 18 percent agree that it's at least a minor problem.

What does that tell you about the general attitude?

Domenico Montanaro:

Yes, I mean, I think that clearly most people in the country don't think that this is something that should happen. They think that political violence is a major problem. They were split on which people are being more targeted, who they're more afraid are being targeted, public officials or protesters. People were basically split down the middle.

I found fascinating the split by age here. You had people who were under 45 years old who were 20 points more likely than those over 45 years old to say that resorting to violence was necessary. You also saw some splits by race as well, where you had people who are Black and Latino more likely to say that this was necessary potentially than whites.

And I think that it really speaks a lot to people who feel under threat in the country. And people feel under threat across the aisle for different reasons, right, whether they're targeted for hiring practices or feel like they don't have upward mobility or feeling like that the country's not going in the direction they want, in the way conservatives had viewed it before Donald Trump was in office.

In some senses, though, I feel like there's a failure of politics here overall, because, if you feel that politics, which is the only way to really create change in the country, is the way to make that change, then you don't feel this way. But when politics, people feel, has let them down, then you start to see these kinds of openings.

Geoff Bennett:

The poll also touched on how Americans feel about free speech, with the vast majority, 79 percent, feeling the country has gone too far in restricting it. What more should we know?

Domenico Montanaro:

Yes, I mean, I think that's a big thing, right?

Conservatives for a long time had said that they felt like their speech was being restricted on college campuses, online. And now, with everything that we have seen with comedian Jimmy Kimmel being taken off the air and now back on the air after pressure from the Trump administration, everybody's got a gripe as far as whether or not they think the federal government is doing a good job or not.

And most people think that the federal government should basically stay out of it. I mean, when you look at the numbers here, only 15 percent say that the government should have a major role in deciding extreme speech; 44 percent say that it should have a minor role. The rest, 41 percent, say it should have no role at all.

Geoff Bennett:

What other takeaways from this poll strike you as interesting?

Domenico Montanaro:

Yes, I mean, there's a lot of fascinating pieces of the poll, I mean, I think, when it comes to speech and violence in particular.

They're somewhat connected, right? Because I think you have people who feel really just that they don't have the opportunity to say what they want to be able to say. A lot of Democrats now feel like speech is being restricted in places where it wasn't previously. And a lot of Republicans have just felt for a long time that they feel that — and Trump ran on this in 2015-2016, against political correctness, right?

And I think you're seeing people have different thoughts and different ideas about what defines what acceptable speech is in this country.

Geoff Bennett:

Domenico Montanaro, our thanks to you, as always.

Domenico Montanaro:

You're welcome.

And you can see the full results of our poll on our Web site, PBS.org/NewsHour.