What does Jeb Bush’s campaign curiosity mean for other possible candidates?

JUDY WOODRUFF:

A man whose family is no stranger to politics got an early start shaking up the 2016 election.

In the first major salvo in the fight for the White House, Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, turned to social media to say he is actively exploring a run for president. If he runs, he'd follow in the footsteps of his father, George H.W. Bush, the nation's 41st president, and his older brother George W., who was the country's 43rd.

The younger Bush made headlines this week after announcing he would release a quarter-million e-mails from his eight years as Florida governor. While in office from 1999 to 2007, he pushed through education and Medicaid reform, funding for the restoration of the Everglades, and tax cuts.

It wasn't, however, a time without controversy. In the case of Terri Schiavo, he directed doctors to resume life support, despite her being in a vegetative state and against her surviving husband's wishes. Bush also disagreed with the Clinton administration decision to send Elian Gonzalez, a young boy brought to Miami by extended family, back to Cuba to live with his father.

If Bush were to win in 2016, it would be historic. No family has ever had three members in the Oval Office. A Marist poll out today shows Bush a few points behind 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, who has said he's unlikely to run again. Even without Romney in the mix, 2016 is likely to yield another crowded field on the Republican side, with as many as a dozen potential candidates.

We asked people today from Denver to New York for their reaction to Bush's announcement.

WOMAN:

I think he'd be great. I liked him. I liked when he was in Florida.

WOMAN:

I don't think we need another Bush in the White House. I would be open-minded about another Republican.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

If Jeb Bush were to secure the Republican nomination, it could be two familiar families topping the tickets, as former first lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads on the Democratic side at this point. Another Bush-Clinton contest is sure to raise questions on the power of dynasties in American politics.

Joining us to talk about those dynasties and what another Bush candidacy might mean are Philip Rucker. He's a national political correspondent for The Washington Post. And Susan Page, Washington bureau chief for USA Today.

We welcome you both back to the program.

Phil Rucker, does this mean he's definitely running? And what — why take this step right now?

PHILIP RUCKER, The Washington Post:

Well, it sure looks like he's leaning that direction.

His aide said today that he has not made a final decision, but, you know, a lot of his associates say his head is in that place, that he wants to really begin building out what a campaign might look like. He needs to start raising money. He needs to start identifying some operatives who can work with him. And we expect a final decision about a campaign some time in the next couple months.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

Susan, do you expect this means he's going for it?

SUSAN PAGE, Washington Bureau Chief, USA Today:

Yes.

I think it's hard to imagine why he would release 250,000 e-mails unless he thought that was necessary because he's running for president. I think it's less that he needs to raise money and get staff. He needs to tell establishment types, establishment fund-raisers and staffers not to go with somebody else, that he's going to be in the race, to hold on for him. He needs to kind of freeze the race in place.

And I think he largely succeeded in doing that today.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

Susan, does he start — OK, what — let's talk about what built-in advantages and disadvantages does he bring to this campaign, assuming he's running.

SUSAN PAGE:

Huge — some huge advantages. Everybody in America knows his family. That's a burden and a blessing in some ways, but he has the ability to raise money in an instant, to put together a campaign staff.

Those are all formidable advantages. Some disadvantages, too. People don't remember the George W. Bush presidency entirely favorably. People remember the Iraq war as being very controversial. And one other disadvantage he has, I think, is it's been 12 years since he ran for any office. You know, the state of campaigning today is different, faster, more driven by social media than it was the last time he was out there.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

That's right.

I mean, Phil Rucker, it was 2002 the last time his name was on the ballot, but we noticed today he announced this on Twitter.

PHILIP RUCKER:

He did. He announced it on Twitter and in a statement on Facebook. But there were a couple typos in that statement.

And he noticeably didn't have any kind of campaign Web site. There is no video. There's not the kind of full digital presence that a lot of modern campaigns have. I'm told he's looking to try to run a digital campaign. They're trying to hire some good talent. And I expect when he actually announces his final decision in the next few months, there will be much more of a splash.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

Phil Rucker, how does this affect the field? Susan mentioned, Susan just said he's doing this to get his name out there, to say to donors, hey, I'm serious, I'm here, you know, look at this before you make a move.

What does it mean for the field and for these other many names who are thinking about running?

PHILIP RUCKER:

So, there are huge implications.

He is going to freeze up a lot of these establishment donors. It basically means that there's not much space at all for Mitt Romney. He's basically the same kind of figure as Jeb Bush in this potential primary. And it causes a lot of complications for Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey, who was counting on support from a lot of the same donors who appear to be migrating toward Jeb Bush, also Senator Marco Rubio, who is also from Florida.

There is a lot of overlap in his donor network. And Bush is just a very attractive candidate to some of these donors, for the reasons that Susan identified.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

Susan, there are so many names out there. I don't even know where to begin. In fact, there were brand-new names. I was just reading that South Carolina's Lindsey Graham, the former New York Governor George Pataki are both saying today they're looking at running for president.

But how do you see the Bush announcement affecting some other names we have been hearing about, I mean, Rand Paul, the governor of Texas, Rick — former governor of Texas, Rick Perry?

SUSAN PAGE:

I think it makes it hard for Marco Rubio to run and maybe it makes a little bit harder for Christie to run and it affects Mitt Romney.

But, otherwise, he's not the field-clearing candidate that Hillary Clinton is on the Democratic side. In polls now, he's ahead, but not my much. There are some questions about, how he will do in debates? Will Republicans, the Republicans who nominate candidates, be willing to accept his views on immigration and on Common Core, where he's at odds with where the mainstream of the party is now?

So, I think that a lot of these candidates we have been hearing about like Rand Paul and Scott Walker, I wouldn't think that they would be deterred by the idea that Jeb Bush is getting in. Some candidates would be, but I don't think this is clearing the field. I think we're going to have a big field on the Republican side and a big fight.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

And, Phil Rucker, already conversation about how Jeb Bush's big challenge would be in the primaries, where you have more conservative Republican voters making decisions. And he's certainly not seen at the more conservative end of the spectrum.

PHILIP RUCKER:

He's not. And that's interesting, because when he was governor of Florida, he was considered a conservative governor, but his positions on immigration and the Common Core education standards are both potentially lightning rod issues for him in Iowa and South Carolina and some of these other early voting states.

And you mentioned earlier that he hasn't been on the ballot since 2002. That's really the last time we have actually seen him perform as a candidate. We know he generates a lot of enthusiasm among party leaders, among donors, among businessmen and those types of figures, but it's unclear how he will do in a town hall meeting, for example, in Iowa, or with some of the activists that are really going to nominate the next presidential candidate.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

Susan, how do you see that and also effect on the Democrats, effect on Hillary Clinton? Do you think her camp is sitting around talking about this today?

SUSAN PAGE:

I think this is great news for Hillary Clinton, because she's got some disadvantages in terms of being a dynasty, a family that's been in power for a while. He offsets that very nicely.

Being a fresh face — it makes her look like a fresher face in contrast to him. In that sense, I think they both — they each do, Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton, do each some good by minimizing some things that might otherwise be negatives.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

Well, it's — we have got — here we are just a month after the midterm elections, and we're already deep into talking about the presidential. But we love it.

Susan Page, Phil Rucker, we thank you both.

PHILIP RUCKER:

Thank you.

SUSAN PAGE:

Thanks.