Republican strategist discusses Trump’s grip on GOP after Iowa win

Geoff Bennett:

The focus of the Republican presidential race now moves to New Hampshire after former President Donald Trump's record-setting win in last night's Iowa caucuses.

Amna Nawaz:

Trump dominated his rivals by 30 points, winning all but one of Iowa's 99 counties. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in second place with 21 percent of the vote, followed closely by former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

I'm joined by Republican strategist Kevin Madden, who advised Mitt Romney's 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Kevin, welcome back. It's good to see you.

Kevin Madden, Republican Strategist:

Great to be with you.

Amna Nawaz:

So I want to get your take on some consternation around how early the call came for former President Trump by the Associated Press last night. It came just a half-an-hour after those caucuses first began. A lot of Iowans hadn't even voted yet.

But the Associated Press put out an explanation today. Here's what they said. They declared Trump the winner of the caucuses based on both an analysis of early returns, as well as their AP VoteCast, which is a survey of voters who planned to caucus. Both, they say, showed Trump with an insurmountable lead.

Kevin, they make these calls when the math lines up. They have been doing it for 170 years. Is the criticism warranted, do you think?

Kevin Madden:

I mean, you're right, first of all.

Every campaign I have ever worked on, we have seen these type of early calls, and you would think that campaigns would be used to it. But we also have to be very cognizant of the fact that there is a very high sense of distrust among a lot of Republican voters and a lot of Republican campaigns, and that's what's driving that level of consternation.

So I think they're — we all know that the AP has rigorous standards and rigorous protocols with how they announce this. But I think the media does have to have a little bit of self-reflection about whether or not there is a great utility in answering or releasing the calls so early, when you still have people voting, especially in an age of the smartphone, where everybody has a supercomputer in their pocket inside these caucuses, and they're able to see that type of information while still voting.

Amna Nawaz:

Let's take a look at the results from last night and how Mr. Trump did win so big.

He dominated pretty much every demographic group. In entrance polls, however, Iowans were asked what candidate qualities were important to them. For people who say that they wanted someone who — quote — "fights for people like me," 82 percent of those folks broke for Mr. Trump, 10 percent for Mr. DeSantis, 5 percent for Vivek Ramaswamy, who has since ended his campaign, and 4 percent for Nikki Haley.

Why do these numbers stand out to you?

Kevin Madden:

Well, first of all, I think one of the things that we are seeing right now is the emerging view of the world — emerging world view of Republican voters.

And one of the first things that they're looking at right now is, can somebody win in November? And what's really emerging about the electability argument is the idea that somebody is out there fighting for them. And so that is a very, very, I think, potent argument that many Republican primary voters are seeing right now.

And it's why this air of inevitability is kind of coasting around Trump right now. I think one of the other things that's very interesting is, if you look at general elections, many close general elections sort of live or die on that question: Which candidate understands or reflects the principles of people like me?

And so I think, for a lot of the folks that are watching this from the White House, from the Biden campaign, they see that number as very high and very potent with Republican voters. I think it creates a very difficult general election matchup for them on the very similar question.

Amna Nawaz:

Let's ask — let me ask you then about that, what's become the fight for second place here.

Mr. DeSantis really banked it all on Iowa. He finished well behind Mr. Trump, slightly ahead of Haley, but he headed right to South Carolina, to Haley's home state. Here's part of what he had to say in Greenville.

Gov. Ron Desantis (R-FL), Presidential Candidate: She was governor here for six years. Can you name major achievements under her tenure? Tell me if there are.

Amna Nawaz:

So, Haley, meanwhile, released a new ad today. We should also say she was saying she would not participate in the next debate unless Mr. Trump took part. He is not going to take part. ABC has now canceled that debate.

But she's really presenting herself as the alternative to Trump and to President Biden. Here's a clip of her new ad.

Narrator:

Both are consumed by chaos, negativity, and grievances of the past. The better choice for a better America, Nikki Haley.

Amna Nawaz:

Kevin, those are very different messages. They're punching very different directions here. How are those arguments going to play out?

Kevin Madden:

Well, one of the big challenges DeSantis has is that his argument, which is focused on Nikki Haley right now, is a very defensive argument, right?

And he's also in a state where he's almost skipping a number of other big primary states between them there. Not playing on the stage in New Hampshire while everybody else in the attention of the political media and both other candidates is in New Hampshire, that does create a void, I think, for the DeSantis campaign.

Haley has had a sort of prepackaged strategy coming out of Iowa, which is, no matter what, she's going to say, this is the two-person race between me and Donald Trump. And she's sticking to that strategy right now. And so that is where I think we're going to see these messages go from both of these campaigns.

One other thing I'd note, too, is that Haley also believes that the best way to make the case to a lot of Republican voters is to show that she'd be the best candidate, again, to take on Joe Biden in a general election. So that is a key component for her message with not only voters in New Hampshire, but all these other primary states.

You look at May — I'm sorry — March 5 and March 19, where a big chunk of delegates is going to be at stake, that's also her message to those voters as well.

Amna Nawaz:

In the meantime, the GOP field has tightened even further, even since last night. We mentioned Vivek Ramaswamy has ended his campaign. So has Asa Hutchinson. But there's still no consolidation around a single Trump alternative.

I want to share with you what the editor is at "The National Review" wrote overnight. They said: "The party has better alternatives, but if the Iowa results are any indication, perhaps not for very long."

Kevin, has that window to consolidate around someone else, has it closed?

Kevin Madden:

I think it's still open, but everybody's certainly running out of time. I mean, we're talking about 1 percent of the delegates that are at stake were waged last night.

But there is a very real sense of inevitability here. And if you look at the picture of what base — GOP base voters were saying in Iowa, as a precursor for what we're going to see from GOP base voters elsewhere, it paints a very compelling argument that the party and many of its base voters are coming to terms with the idea that Trump is going to be their nominee.

Inevitability, I think, for Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, that's a very, very tough message to fight against.

They have their work cut out for them.

Amna Nawaz:

All right, Kevin Madden, good to talk to you. Thank you so much.

Kevin Madden:

Great to be with you.