Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on key races to watch on Election Day 2023

Amna Nawaz:

For analysis on the 2024 race for president, as well as some critical elections happening tomorrow, I'm joined by our Politics Monday team. That is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

And it's great to see you both.

There is a lot happening on the 2024 front, so let's dig in there. There's another Republican debate on Wednesday. We know Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is picking up an endorsement from the Iowa governor. It's a key endorsement there.

At the same time, I want to ask you about these poll numbers we just saw from The New York Times and Siena. They show President Biden trailing former President Trump in five out of the six so-called battleground states. You can see there Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden still has a slight lead in Wisconsin.

Tam, just take a step back for a moment and put these numbers into context for us at this moment in time and what they mean for the Republican contest as well.

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Right.

So this moment in time is very early. A lot is going to happen between now and the election. Head-to-head polls aren't always the best. And this far out, it can be challenging to — this is a moment in time. It is not a reflection of what's going to happen a year from now.

In terms of what this means for the Republicans, there are other polls out there. There was an NBC poll out of Iowa that showed that caucus-goers really prioritize being able to beat Joe Biden. They prioritize electability, much in the same way that Democratic primary voters prioritized electability in 2020. And that's why Joe Biden is president of the United States right now.

So they prioritize electability. This poll tells them, you don't have to worry. Donald Trump is electable.

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Tamara Keith:

And that's something certainly that the Trump people are going to be touting and already are.

And it creates a challenge for these other people who are going to be on stage this week sort of begging and pleading for attention and beating each other up, but sort of a sideshow to whatever Trump is doing. It creates a challenge for them to be able to make the argument, oh, no, like, Trump isn't electable, you should pick one of us.

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy, what about that? Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, they have all said: Trump can't beat Biden. We can.

Does this undercut that?

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Yes, and as does that Iowa poll, which it — caucus-goers said, not only its electability our number one issue, but by a significant margin, they picked Donald Trump as the one who they think could beat Joe Biden.

So, there, I think another important thing about these polls, to me, what it showed was the central challenge for 2024, which probably isn't going to change that much as long as it's Trump versus Biden, which is that Biden has an enthusiasm problem, especially among younger voters, voters of color. And Donald Trump has a ceiling problem.

It's still — even in those numbers, he's ahead, yes, technically, of Joe Biden, but his overall vote share, the percent of the vote he's getting right now is basically the same vote he got in 2020. So he's not at 50 percent in any of those states, except for Nevada.

So it feels like what we're going into is basically a replay of 2020, where a few thousand votes in these very close states are going to determine who the president of the United States is.

Amna Nawaz:

We have also seen — yes, go ahead.

(Crosstalk)

Tamara Keith:

I would just say that, while Biden world does not like this poll, totally disputes this poll, they also readily acknowledge that they have a lot of work to do with young voters, voters of color.

They are building an infrastructure to try to reach those voters. And if you look at the campaign ads that they're running in a state like North Carolina, and they're running a lot of ads in North Carolina already, they are very much focused on Black voters and young Black voters.

Amna Nawaz:

So I want to talk a little bit, of course, what's happening tomorrow, because we do have a number of key elections that could be indicators for what we see ahead in 2024.

There's a big test for Biden's record and the Kentucky governor's race, abortion on the ballot in Ohio. And of all the races, Amy, what are you watching and why is it important?

Amy Walter:

Well, it helps that I am in Virginia. So I do have a little preference for the Virginia legislative elections.

But, more than that, it's a test of a message. And the message is this. It's Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who is saying, you know what, Republicans, we have to stop running away from the abortion issue. We did that in 2022. We were defined by Democrats on this issue. We need to do the defining.

And so he has come out, talked openly and actively, running ads saying, Republicans, if we are in charge, if we win back the Senate, we will have total control of the government. And what we would like to do is have a 15-week ban. This is a reasonable position, he says. This is with exceptions. And what Democrats want is unreasonable. They want abortion until the very end. That is not what Virginians want.

So, this is a real test for whether this message actually resonates, this idea of responsible — being reasonable. And I'm also looking at some of the districts based on whether they have a significant African American population, especially down in the Tidewater area, those folks, Hampton Roads.

Is the turnout issue something that Democrats do need to still be very concerned about?

Amna Nawaz:

Turnout based on enthusiasm.

Amy Walter:

Exactly. Exactly.

(Crosstalk)

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Tam, what about you?

Tamara Keith:

So, I have been reviewing ads that have been running in Virginia about abortion. And what you find is, I found, like, basically one Republican candidate who was proactively running on this 15-week abortion ban.

And I found more Democrats than I can count who were running, saying, look what Republicans want to do. Look at this Republican incumbent. They voted for a total ban. Now they want this 15-week ban.

So, Democrats clearly feel that this is an issue that they can run on. A lot of the Republican ads focus on crime. And so what — in a lot of ways this feels like a replay of the 2022 midterms messaging, but it's also probably a preview of the 2024 presidential campaign messaging and all those congressional races.

I will just add, I am also watching Ohio, because this Issue 1 is a — would enshrine a right to abortion access in the Ohio Constitution. Ohio, it was a purple state, like, in 2004. It is a red state now. But this has been an animating issue in a number of red states.

This is a more proactive measure in support of abortion access than we have seen on — in other initiatives up to now. This is very much abortion the ballot in a red state. So, we're further away from the Dobbs decision than we were the last time this was on the ballot. But — so this is something to watch, because, if Ohio ends up passing this Issue 1, then Democrats are going to be like, all right, we have got our message.

And, similarly, that's what they will be watching for with Virginia.

Amna Nawaz:

This is fascinating, though. You still — I mean, we saw the impact the abortion issue had in the midterms in 2022. You believe it will carry through as a mobilizing issue into '24?

Amy Walter:

That's the — and that is…

Amna Nawaz:

That is the question.

Amy Walter:

Yes, that's what 2023 will help us, with the big, of course, asterisk, caveat, it is an off — these are off-year elections. So turnout is going to be much higher in a presidential, of course.

Amna Nawaz:

Big caveats always, of course.

Amy Walter:

Of course.

Amna Nawaz:

Important.

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, always good to talk to you both. Thank you so much.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.