Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the GOP's shrinking margin in the House

Amna Nawaz:

Meanwhile, a special election in the Lone Star State further erodes Republicans' margin in the U.S. House of Representatives, that as the federal government partially shuts down again.

For more, we turn to our Politics Monday duo. That is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Great to see you both.

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Good to be here.

Amna Nawaz:

Let's talk about Texas, two races I want to ask you about, one, not a surprise, the 18th Congressional District there. A Democrat, Christian Menefee, won a special election to fill a seat that's been vacant since a member passed over a year ago.

The other, Amy, for a state Senate seat and Fort Worth, with Democrat Taylor Rehmet won in a district that Trump won by 17 points last year. What happened there?

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Well, I think it's easy to look at this and think, well, we're living through a time right now where Trump, the backlash to ICE, his approval ratings going down, thinking that this is directly connected to that.

But if you look overall, look at all the special elections that have been taking place since 2025, this fits into the pattern that we have seen, which is Democrats outperforming what Kamala Harris got in those districts in 2024 by an average 13 points.

So it is part of the headwinds that continue to batter Republicans right now. You could look at 2025 and say, well, maybe these will ease up as we get into 2026. Obviously, this race in Texas shows that there's absolutely none of that happening right now.

Amna Nawaz:

Concerns for Republicans in the midterms. What are we hearing from the White House?

Tamara Keith:

Yes, and special elections are special. So you can't take one election and say, wow, this is how every one is going to be in the fall.

But a fascinating case with this race, President Trump did endorse that candidate. He did go on social media and say, you got to get out there, you got to vote. And then when asked about him losing by a really significant margin, the president was like, what? I'm just learning about this right now. Who are you talking about? I don't know what you're talking about. When I'm not on the ballot, sometimes, people lose.

And that has been his answer to a lot of these losses. The reality is, whether he's on the ballot or not, he will be on the ballot in November, not just because Democrats will make sure that people are voting based on Trump and his policies and putting a check on him, but also because the White House has said they intend to make these elections about him.

They want him out there campaigning once a week. They want him being the face of the Republican Party.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy, do we know if that will make a difference?

Amy Walter:

Well, right now, what this race and other special elections have shown is that it's not just that Democrats are turning out at a higher level, and they are. They're more enthusiastic than Republicans to vote.

But independents are breaking dramatically to Democrats. Again, this is a district, as you said, that Trump won by 17 points. It doesn't mean all districts in 2026 that he won by 17 are going to suddenly become Democratic. But if you're a Republican sitting in a district that Trump won by double digits, normally, you would feel pretty safe.

But I'm looking at these numbers, the president's overall approval ratings. Other data points suggest this could be a very, very difficult night even for Republicans in so-called safe seats by the time we hit the midterms, if this continues.

Amna Nawaz:

Meanwhile, we're in another partial government shutdown.

Tam, we know Democrats have been using this to try to push for changes to ICE tactics as part of the immigration crackdown. Just today, we saw the homeland security secretary say, effective immediately, they will be deploying body cameras to all field offices in Minneapolis. They'll expand it nationwide, she said, as funding is available.

This is something Democrats wanted, though. Are they getting what they want from this shutdown?

Tamara Keith:

This is one of the things that Democrats wanted. This is not the only thing that Democrats want. They also want these immigration officials, enforcement officers to remove their masks and identify themselves.

They want judicial warrants, instead of administrative warrants. An administrative warrant is basically like you can sign it yourself if you're law enforcement. You need a judge for a judicial warrant. And also changes to the approach to the use of force. Are Democrats going to get all of that? Probably not.

However, I will say that one interesting thing to watch is that there are going to be these hearings with the top immigration officials coming up to Capitol Hill. And they are going to get pressed. And I expect they are not just going to get pressed by Democrats, but they're going to get pressed by Republicans on some of these things.

And so will Democrats get their maximalist desires? Probably not. Republicans actually have a lot of maximalist desires too on immigration. They'd like to go even farther in the other direction. But the potential does exist for a compromise. The potential also exists for them to kick the can by a couple of weeks for the rest of the year.

Amna Nawaz:

How are Americans looking at the shutdown and the crackdown?

Amy Walter:

Yes.

I think what we're seeing right now, two things. We have Americans and we have partisan voters. I think one challenge, one interesting thing to watch, if there is a compromise, will be how Democratic primary voters or Democratic partisans respond to this.

I was talking last week to a Democratic strategist who said, look, even as we talk about maybe some compromise, maybe getting the administration to do some of the things we would like to see them doing, I don't know, this person said, if it can meet this level of rage within the Democratic base right now about how ICE is performing.

I've been watching a lot of campaign ads in Democratic primaries. ICE is front and center in those ads. So Democrats have a -- Democratic voters have a very clear idea what they would like to see. Well, let's see what a final package could look like.

Finally, how are Americans seeing this? Well, when the spotlight is on issues related to the border or just overall security, are we living -- are we the people who are coming here safe, do we want to deport criminals, that's where Trump has an advantage.

But when it's focused on how ICE is carrying out its duties, that's where Trump is at a very deep disadvantage. And, as we know, for these last few weeks, we haven't been talking very much about the border. We've been talking overwhelmingly about ICE.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, always great to start the week with you both. Thank you.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.