Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on what to watch in Tuesday’s elections

Amna Nawaz:

With more on what to expect from tomorrow's big races, on the president's lengthy interview as well, and what is soon to be the longest government shutdown of all time, we turn now to our Politics Monday duo. That is Tamara Keith of NPR and Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter.

Good to see you both.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Hello.

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Good to be here.

Amna Nawaz:

So, you saw William lay it out there, all eyes tomorrow on this New York mayoral race. You have got Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani leading in the polls against Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa.

Meanwhile, in Virginia, you have got Democrat Abigail Spanberger running for governor Against Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and, in New Jersey, another moderate Democrat, Representative Mikie Sherrill, taking on Jack Ciattarelli.

And you saw this weekend former President Obama stumping for both. Take a listen to what he said.

Donald Trump, President of the United States: "60 Minutes" was forced to pay me a lot of money because they…

Barack Obama, Former President of the United States: Let's face it. Our country…

Donald Trump:

So bad, it was election-changing, two nights before the election.

Barack Obama:

It's hard to know where to start, because, every day, this White House offers up a fresh batch of lawlessness and recklessness.

(Booing)

Barack Obama:

Hey. Wait, wait. Don't Boo.

AUDIENCE:

Vote!

Barack Obama:

Vote.

Amna Nawaz:

You heard a little bit of President Trump there. We will hear from him in a moment as well.

But, Amy, when you look at this, what does it say to you about the Democratic message and what are you watching?

Amy Walter:

Yes, well, as you know, I love a good Election Day and I especially love the very first election after a presidential election.

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

Because it is a chance to get the real political temperature. We have been spending most of this year talking about what happened last year. We talk a lot about polls. Here's the first chance where voters get to weigh in.

Now, New Jersey and Virginia are very different from New York City. New York City is essentially a Democratic primary contest. It's important in understanding in many ways what's going on within the Democratic Party and some of the tensions within the Democratic Party and some of the tensions within the Democratic Party about who they want as a messenger and what kind of message they want.

Virginia and New Jersey, although they're not real swing states in the way that, say, a Michigan or Pennsylvania is, these are still states that Trump only lost by six points. I think what ties all of those races together, though, is that — the issue of affordability, the issue of the cost of living, which was what dragged down President Biden in 2024 and Democrats in 2024, now it's the anvil that Republicans have to carry.

And if you watch the ads — if you live in any of those states, you don't really have much of a choice, you're seeing a lot of the ads — And the attacks on Donald Trump from Democrats really are focused on the cost of living. Things are more expensive because of what Donald Trump did. That's very different than the messaging we saw, say, back in 2024 or 2017, when it was really much more on Trump's behavior.

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

Because people did, back then, see him as stronger on the economy than they do now.

Amna Nawaz:

Tam, what about redistricting, specifically in California, where it looks to be on a glide path? What role is that going to play tomorrow and beyond?

Tamara Keith:

Yes. So the redistricting in California, that is a ballot measure that, as you say, is polling quite strongly in the yes camp. That would temporarily overwrite the independent district lines drawn by the independent commission and gerrymander it to give Democrats more seats in California.

The ballot language there specifically says it is counteracting Republican efforts in Texas to draw district lines there. President Trump wanted Texas to make more Republican seats. California said, all right, we will make more Democratic seats. That appears to be where that's headed.

What that means for the midterms is there are other states that the president is trying to pressure Republican states to draw their lines differently to give Republicans an advantage. But if California does pass this, then the immediate advantage that President Trump was supposed to have, wanted to have in the numbers of the House of Representatives, the number of races that would be destined to go Republican, that — he would lose some of that advantage.

And he has been governing as someone who doesn't need to run for reelection, no matter what he says, and has essentially been governing to his base. He has been doing whatever he wants to do, however he wants to do it, because he doesn't really have to worry about electoral consequences for himself, but he will have to worry about it in the House.

And so that's one of the consequences that could come out of this.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, let me ask you about the message he's been delivering, because he did sit for a very lengthy interview with CBS News with Norah O'Donnell. A portion of it aired last night on TV. An extended, over-hour-plus, version was posted online.

And in it he talked about the fact that the network's under new leadership, under Bari Weiss, who's been a critic of mainstream media. And he also referenced the lawsuit that he had against CBS about their interview with Vice President Harris. Take a listen to President Trump.

Donald Trump:

"60 Minutes" was forced to pay me a lot of money because they took her answer out that was so bad, it was election-changing two nights before the election, and they put a new answer in. And they paid me a lot of money for that. You can't have fake news. You have got to have legit news.

Amna Nawaz:

What stood out to you from the interview, Tam?

Tamara Keith:

What actually stood out to me from the interview wasn't that part, but was when he was asked about the economy, this issue that we have been talking about is a real issue for him. He said, well, people's 401(k)s are up. The stock market is doing well.

And she pressed him on, well, what about other people? What about people who don't have 401(k)s and their grocery prices? And he was fairly dismissive. I think that he is clearly still trying to figure out how to message around the economy, when his sort of traditional approach of just cheerlead, cheerlead, cheerlead isn't really connecting with the way a lot of people are feeling about it.

(Crosstalk)

Amna Nawaz:

Yes, he also wrongly stated grocery prices are coming down, we should note.

(Crosstalk)

Amy Walter:

Yes.

And I noticed the exact same thing. And Norah O'Donnell again went to him with, well, people say that they're suffering from higher prices. Are you going to address this? And he pivoted to talk about sanctuary cities. He talked about cashless bail. He talked about crime, which right now is the one place where he has something of an advantage.

So I think Tam's point is correct that he's still trying to figure out, how do I talk about the economy when people are feeling bad about the economy? He tried to also spend a lot of his time blaming the Biden administration, much like in that clip that you showed. There was a lot of retrospective, not a lot of focus on what things are going to look like in the future.

Amna Nawaz:

Meanwhile, day 34 of the government shutdown, there's new polling from NBC that shows the majority of Americans are blaming Trump and Republicans for that shutdown, some 52 percent; 42 percent are blaming Democrats.

Amy, Mr. Trump also said in the interview, he plans his plan to end the shutdown is to keep voting and that eventually Democrats will give. Will they?

Amy Walter:

Yes, it seems as if there is more hope among some in the Senate that there will be an off-ramp soon, that moderate Democrats are sitting down speaking with Republicans.

But I thought that the president in the "60 Minutes" made it very clear that he's not interested in being part of the solution. In fact, his other answer for how to solve this is, Republicans, just get rid of the filibuster. We don't really need those Democrats anyway.

Tamara Keith:

Yes, and President Trump has — I did an analysis of his travel over the month of the government shutdown, and he has been on the road 15 days. He has done two foreign trips. He has golfed five times. He has traveled a lot.

Presidents typically, during a government shutdown, including President Trump in his first term, canceled overseas travel because they wanted to be back in the U.S. negotiating, trying to bring the crisis that is a government shutdown to an end. But President Trump's approach is very different. It's in line with the House of Representatives, which is sort of following his lead.

They say, we voted on the short-term spending bill. Our work is done. There's nothing to talk about. And what better way to send that signal than the president of the United States leaving the country twice?

Amna Nawaz:

Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, always good to start the week off with you both. Thank you.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.