Venezuela oil blockade could have ‘chilling effect’ on Maduro, ex-ambassador says

Geoff Bennett:

Brazil's president said today that his country is willing to help prevent an armed confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela.

The remarks come one day after the Trump administration announced it would block sanctioned oil tankers traveling to and from Venezuela and after weeks of escalating pressure on the government of Nicolas Maduro.

Last night, we heard from a critic of the Trump administration's approach, tonight, a different perspective.

Jimmy Story spent 25 years in the U.S. State Department and most recently served as ambassador to the Venezuela Affairs Unit based in neighboring Colombia. He now works as a partner at an international consulting firm.

Thanks for being with us.

James Story, Former U.S. Ambassador for the Venezuela Affairs Unit: It's a pleasure to be here, Geoff. Thanks for having me.

Geoff Bennett:

You spent years on the ground dealing with Venezuela. From your vantage point, how significant a turning point is this moment in U.S. policy toward Maduro?

James Story:

Well, this is a significant moment.

And, particularly, the interdiction of the ship, The Skipper, who was falsely flying the flag of Guyana, is a big move, because the Maduro dictatorship, Maduro regime lives off of exporting oil on the black market to certain markets internationally. So this is going to have a chilling effect on both legitimate and illegitimate traffic, something I advocated for, frankly, for quite a number of years.

I think this is within international legal norms, and certainly it was something that will have a big impact on the Maduro regime.

Geoff Bennett:

So walk us through precisely why you think stopping the sale of Venezuelan oil will lead ultimately to the downfall of the regime.

James Story:

Well, part of this is, we got to go back to July of last year, when Nicolas Maduro lost an election that was neither free nor fair, but an election that he allowed to go forward, not with a candidate that won the primary of the opposition, Maria Corina Machado, nor with her selected replacement, but with her second choice, who was Edmundo Gonzalez.

They weren't anticipating that the Venezuelan people would come out in droves and overwhelmingly vote him out of office. And he's just refused to leave office. So he remains in office because he's supported by people who are making money through various methodologies. Narcotics trafficking is one of them. Of course, gold smuggling would be another.

And, finally, it's the export of oil, particularly in the black market to certain markets in Asia, that gives him the money that he needs to pay off certain generals in his employ. So this will have a big impact on his ability to pay to stay in power.

Geoff Bennett:

What about the president's talk of taking back Venezuelan oil? Doesn't that hand Maduro a ready-made narrative that the U.S. is motivated by resources, not by democracy?

James Story:

When I think about the issue of Venezuela, the resource issue is like number five or six on the list of reasons. They are a failed state that provides safe haven for foreign terrorist organizations such as the FARC-D, the ELN, Hezbollah and others.

They allow the Russians to undermine democracies across the region by using Venezuela as a launching pad for their online platforms. They forced out 25 percent of the population of Venezuela. Some nine million Venezuelans have left that country.

They're under indictment for narcotics trafficking. They're under indictment in the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. So I was surprised that the president focused on this piece of it, when there's so many other issues to focus on.

Geoff Bennett:

How should the administration strike the right balance between pressuring the regime without worsening conditions on the ground for ordinary Venezuelans?

James Story:

As a former diplomat, as a retired ambassador, I fully believe in the art of diplomacy and the art of the possible when it comes to negotiations.

I think that framing needs to start with Maduro's departure and then frame out, well, how do you build a robust democracy in a country where the institutions of state have been undermined for so long? But I think our focus really needs to be on, let's support what the Venezuelan people have requested, getting an election.

Let's work on transitional government and transitional justice. And then how can the international community come together to make certain that democracy takes place and stays in power there in Venezuela?

Geoff Bennett:

So, with this Trump pressure campaign, what does success actually look like? And how will we know that we haven't traded one form of instability for another?

James Story:

Well, one of the key indicators, are people — will people still be leaving Venezuela or will they start to return? Are people having access to food and medicine, the things that they were denied under a very corrupt, very cruel criminal enterprise there in Caracas?

And, also, to what extent is Venezuela presenting itself as a threat to its neighbors, neighbors such as Trinidad and Tobago, neighbors such as Guyana, and even with Colombia, where they share a very long, very unstable border, where criminal organizations regularly cross back and forth between the two?

So I think those are the kinds of things I'd be looking at up front. And then, finally, I'd say what the role of the military is. I think we learned a lesson in Iraq with de-Baathification . There are some bad actors in the military, the Cartel of the Suns. Some of them are involved in that. Others have been involved with crimes against humanity.

To what extent, though, can the military be brought in to this experiment or this process of reinstitutionalizing the country? I think that's going to be very key.

Geoff Bennett:

Jimmy Story, thanks so much for your insights. We appreciate it.

James Story:

Geoff, it's a pleasure to be with you all. Thank you.