Violence sweeps across Indonesia amid protests over worsening economy

John Yang:

In recent weeks, Indonesia has been rocked by massive anti-government protests that have spread across the nation. Demonstrators torched vehicles and government buildings. The protests are led by students, workers and women's rights groups angry over the yawning gap between Indonesia's elites and the shrinking middle class. Things turned violent after a delivery driver was killed amid a police crackdown. In all, at least 10 people have died.

Earlier, I spoke with Aaron Connelly, Asia diplomatic editor at the Economist. I asked him about the current situation.

Aaron Connelly, Asia Diplomatic Editor, The Economist:

It remains to be seen what will happen this week. The protesters set a deadline of Friday for some of their demands to be met. The first 17 of the 25 demands. Most of those demands were not met.

And I think the president is hoping that everything will just calm down, that it takes a lot of the wind out of the sails of the protesters, that to promise that there would be an investigation of the motorbike delivery rider's death and that the allowances would be withdrawn and that they don't go back down onto the streets, or at least not in the same numbers.

John Yang:

We have a little bit of sound from a protester talking about some of their demands.

Muzammil Ihsan, Student Protester (through translator):

We want concrete steps that they continue to take for all the people of Indonesia. We still feel unsatisfied. We still feel that there are still many changes that must be made because we believe that when our voices have not been heard, then we must continue to move, then we must continue to speak out to convey our aspirations.

John Yang:

What else are they looking for? What else do they want?

Aaron Connelly:

The initial demands focused on this incident that took place on August 28 when the motorbike driver was run over, that there be an investigation into his death, and then also that the military retreat to the barracks, that it not be involved in enforcing in domestic law enforcement.

But then the demands broadened and some of them go so far as to require revisions to the law authorizing the military or authorizing the police and reform of the legislature to make it more democratic.

John Yang:

That accident may have been the spark that started this, but was there already sort of kindling laid down unhappiness over issues?

Aaron Connelly:

Yeah, quite a bit. You know, on paper, the economy looks like it's doing pretty well, so growing at about 5.1 if those numbers are accurate. But beneath the surface, there are all sorts of economic indicators that suggest that people aren't doing okay. So, you know, the price of key staples like a kilo of rice, that's up 34 percent since three years ago.

And then there just aren't very many jobs. And so youth unemployment, particularly the unemployment rate of young graduates of university, that's gone up considerably over the last couple of years. And so people really feel like they're doing it tough. We talked to one teacher in central Java who said that she's struggling to make ends meet, and then she sees these legislators enriching themselves with things like housing allowances.

But more than that, I think the underlying cause is the president's effort to try to squelch democratic opposition in the legislature. He said that he wants a coalition of all the parties in the legislature and that he then wants to make that permanent, implying that there would be no democratic opposition in the legislature going forward. And that really limits the avenues that people have for opposing his policies. And they find their voice only on the street now.

John Yang:

So is the concern that Indonesia may be going back to authoritarianism under this way?

Aaron Connelly:

That's been the concern since President Prabowa Subianto was elected last year because he has himself a history in the dictatorship of his former father in law, Suharto, who ruled from 1967 to 1998. He was a Special Forces general during that period. And then in the protests that brought down Suharto in 1998, he was quite active. And there have been allegations that he was involved in some sponsoring some agents' provocateurs in an attempt to try and justify Suharto remaining in office under emergency rule.

And so there's a real fear that, you know, some of the more violent protests that we saw over the last couple of weeks, that was actually not protesters who were doing that. And of course the protest leaders have said that wasn't their people, but that he was seeking to justify really a power grab, a consolidation of power.

John Yang:

This is sort of the first big test for President Subianto. What have we learned from it? What does this, what his reaction and response tell us about him?

Aaron Connelly:

I spoke to one foreign diplomat who knows President Prabowo well and said, you know, look, he's a populist and like all populists, he wants to be popular and a crackdown doesn't serve that end and nor would, you know, a really heavy handed authoritarianism.

So, I think he's trying to thread that needle. As we said earlier, he's trying to find a way to take the wind out of the sails of the protests without necessarily giving over to the protesters a lot of their other demands.

John Yang:

So what's the next chapter? What do people think is going to happen next?

Aaron Connelly:

You know, there were big street protests under President Prabowo's predecessor, Joko Widodo, in 2019 and 2021 that looked a lot like these. And it seemed as though this was going to be a really big moment Indonesian politics. And the president did make some concessions and it did take the wind out of the sails of the protesters.

The protest leaders have said that they don't want to allow that to happen again. But it's certainly possible that President Prabowo plays this perfectly and that, you know, we don't see the protests immediately revived.

I think all that dry kindling that we talked about earlier, the economic issues, the lack of democratic accountability that's going to lead to protests again and again throughout his term unless he changes course and allows for more democratic contestation and accountability in the legislature.

John Yang:

Indonesia, in all this turmoil, what does this do to its standing in the region, and what does it do to the region overall?

Aaron Connelly:

Well, Indonesia is the biggest country in Southeast Asia. In fact, it's the fourth most populous country in the world, third largest democracy. And so what happens Indonesia matters. It matters for Southeast Asia and it matters for the rest of the region as well.

Some of us who focus on Indonesia, we like to say that it's the world's biggest invisible object because it doesn't get very much attention in Western press except for moments like this. And so it is an important country and it is a kind of leader within the region.

And so other countries will look at what happens Indonesia, whether it's moving toward a more illiberal future or whether it's moving toward a more democratic future. And they will, to some extent, take their cues from Indonesia.

John Yang:

Aaron Connelly in Singapore, thank you very much.

Aaron Connelly:

Thanks, John.