What lies ahead as Ukraine marks somber 2-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion

John Yang:

It was two years ago today that Russia launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine. Every day since then, an average of 42 Ukrainian civilians have been killed or wounded. In addition, more than 14 million people are in need of humanitarian aid. About 4 million have been displaced within Ukraine and more than 6 million are now living as refugees around the world.

Also since then, Nick Schifrin has made several reporting trips to Ukraine. Nick, it's now entering the third year. What is life like for Ukrainians?

Nick Schifrin:

If you are a Ukrainian soldier near the front, it is extremely difficult. There are places in northeast Ukraine where Ukrainians are outnumbered five to one. They're being outgunned eight to one or nine to one, even 10 to one.

If you're Ukrainian civilian living by the front, the fear of death, whether you are caught by a Russian artillery shell or some kind of Russian airstrike, remains living in Kyiv, living in Lviv in the western part of the city, Ukrainians do have normal lives. But there is not, as you know, a part of this country or a family or a person in this country who have not been affected forever by this war, many of them for the worse.

John Yang:

Leading up to this anniversary, we've seen a number of U.S. officials expressing moral support, rhetorical support for the Ukrainians. They can't give tangible monetary support because it's bottled up in Congress.

And this week, President Biden blamed that inaction on Congress on a major loss for Ukraine. How accurate is that? How badly do the Ukrainians need that money?

Nick Schifrin:

Very, very badly. So the loss was in Avdiivka. This is a city in the east that has been fought over between Ukraine and Russia, frankly, for a decade. I first visited Avdiivka in 2014, and so Russia has finally captured it.

And this is one of those places, John, that were talking about before, where the outnumbering and the outgunning is shocking. Avdiivka was at least eight to one or nine to one or even 10 to one at one point, according to Ukrainian officials. I speak to when it comes to artillery because U.S. shipments have not arrived.

But what's key, John, is that we talk a lot about artillery up and down the front. Air defense. U.S. officials tell me if this supplemental does not pass, they are really worried that Ukraine will run out of the munitions it needs for air defense.

And that's not only critical for protecting Ukrainian critical infrastructure, but it also is critical because it keeps Russian jets from flying freely across Ukraine. And if Russian jets were to be able to fly freely, Ukraine would really have a hard time even holding the ground that they have right now.

John Yang:

And talk about that holding that ground before this loss, Russia capturing that city, they seem to be at a stalemate on the ground. Once we get into spring, do you expect offensives from either side?

Nick Schifrin:

So Ukraine is really unable to launch an offensive the entire year. Basically, they won't say that publicly, but U.S. officials are admitting that. And us goal is to get them enough weapons, especially air defense, but also artillery, to allow them to hold the line, allow them to go on defense for the entirety of 2024.

The strategy at that point is that there will be a lot more American artillery, a lot more European artillery, and a lot more Ukrainian weapons, from drones to artillery, online for 2025.

The question about Russia is a good one. Russia will continue to push through the winter. You can still fight when it's frozen. You just can't fight when it's muddy. So through the winter, Russia will continue to push, especially in the parts of Ukraine, in the south that Ukraine actually resized last year.

And the concern that Ukrainian officials have is that if they lose some of the territory that they won, what little territory they won, frankly, in 2023, that will be a big hit for morale.

John Yang:

There have been occasional suggestions and discussions of negotiations to try to end this war. Is that something you see possible?

Nick Schifrin:

So from the Ukrainian side, absolutely zero. There is no desire to negotiate when 18 percent of their territory is still occupied and when 90 percent of Ukraine defines victory not only as reseasing (ph) what they lost in the last two years, but retaking Crimea back, which they lost ten years ago. So there is no political space for President Zelenskyy to even consider that at all.

Russia publicly say that, look, we're happy to negotiate, but U.S. officials believe that actually Putin has not changed his goal for Ukraine to actually capture Kyiv. And so whatever Putin might say publicly, there is no belief in Kyiv or in Washington that he has a desire or interest in negotiating, even at the status quo right now.

John Yang:

Do you see an end to this anytime soon?

Nick Schifrin:

Sadly, no. And I think that's what that reference to U.S. strategy acknowledges, in the sense that 2024 is not going to be a year where Ukraine can go on the offensive. That's what the U.S. has already assessed.

And so the Biden administration is trying to create a way for Ukraine to be able to fight this war for a long time. Obviously, there's a question of President Trump if he were to win. And the Biden administration is trying to put in mechanisms where the U.S. will continue to support Ukraine.

But assuming that U.S. support, European support for Ukraine continues for the next few years, no, we could be talking about this war in two, three, four, five years, we really have no idea. Because, again, Ukraine wants to keep fighting, wants to try and resize the territory, and there is no sign that Vladimir Putin thinks he needs to stop.

John Yang:

This war is just one of the friction points between the United States and Russia. Most recently, we've had the death of Alexei Navalny. Put this war into context of the broader U.S.-Russian relations.

Nick Schifrin:

It's very interesting when we think about the last few administrations in the U.S. have tried to reset relations with Russia. The Biden administration did not. And what this war has done, according to western officials I talked to, is made a really strategic pivot point for Washington, London, and to a certain extent, Europe. That is that they believe that they will have to face a difficult, revisionist, aggressive Russia for a generation.

That's not something that U.S. intelligence services had or western intelligence services had been already expecting. But the war has changed that. And so that means that 10, 15, 20 years down the line, the U.S. and the U.K. at least expect to have to confront Russia post Putin. And what does that mean?

That means that some of the sanctions that are being put in place today, some of the actions being put in place today, yes, they are about Ukraine in the sense that's where the front line is. But they are about degrading Russia five years, 10 years, 15 years into the future to try and ensure that Russia can't do this, what it's done in Ukraine, elsewhere into Europe and NATO. But that will be a generational fight, perhaps.

John Yang:

Nick Schifrin, thank you very much.

Nick Schifrin:

Thanks, John.