What Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s defection means for Democrats and Arizona politics

Judy Woodruff:

Democrats now have an asterisk on their 51-seat majority in the U.S. Senate, with Arizona's Kyrsten Sinema announcing that she will switch her party affiliation from Democrat to independent.

She will be the third independent senator, joining Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who both caucus with Democrats. Sinema has at times sparred with Democrats, but, today, the White House called her a key partner on issues, and said — quote — "We have every reason to expect that we will continue to work successfully with her."

Here to assess what this means for the Democrats' agenda in the Senate and for Arizona politics are our Capitol Hill correspondent Lisa Desjardins and, from "NewsHour West" in Phoenix, Stephanie Sy.

Hello to both of you.

And, Lisa, I'm going to start with you.

So, what does this mean for the Senate, and what does it mean for what Democrats want to get done?

Lisa Desjardins:

If you think of this is a political earthquake, which is what this felt like for a few minutes of this morning, it's really the type of earthquake that is more of a tremor about the future, potentially, a signal about what's going to happen ahead.

It hasn't really changed the landscape in Congress. What I mean is this. Sinema will allow Democrats to still have 51 votes for how they organize the Senate. The committee structure will stay the same. They will be able to subpoena witnesses if they want. They will be able to move nominees more quickly than they could in the 50/50. Senate.

And she will retain her spots on the committees, including at least two subcommittee chairmanships. Now, our language is going to have to be careful here, because while she has been clear she's not caucusing with Republicans, she has not gone to Democratic Caucus meetings in the past. She's not someone who has participated in those meetings. And she's not going to in the future.

So, she's not exactly in the Democratic Caucus. She just votes with them most of the time. Now, as far as one other senator that we're watching, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who has also voted with Republicans at times, my reporting is this, Judy, on him. We should not expect him to make a similar move to be independent, though he has in the past, in fact, made overtures and indicated that he's willing to switch under the right circumstances.

We do not expect him to do that. One reason, the politics in West Virginia are very different. It is much harder to run for the Senate as an independent in West Virginia than it is in Arizona. Also, he's a member of the Senate Democratic leadership right now.

Judy Woodruff:

Two very different situations.

Lisa Desjardins:

Yes.

Judy Woodruff:

All so interesting.

And, Stephanie, to you now.

Remind us what Sinema's political history is. How did she get to this place?

Stephanie Sy:

Well, Judy, the timing of this announcement may be surprising, may have felt like an earthquake in Washington, but for those who have observed Kyrsten Sinema in the last few years, this was not entirely surprising.

I was reminded at how much anger there is directed at Senator Sinema by Democrats. I spoke to several Arizona voters today, who reminded me of a couple — really just last year, when Senator Sinema was being ambushed at her office, at the airport, on flights, even in bathrooms because of her position deciding that she wanted the filibuster to remain intact.

And what that meant, of course, was that the Biden administration and many progressive Democrats would not be able to pass the type of legislation they thought they would be. Another Democrat said that she has been a fake Democrat. So there has been a lot of anger directed at her from base Democrats here in Arizona.

In fact, the Arizona Democratic Party censured her. And, today, the party issued a scathing statement saying that — quote — "She has shown she answers to corporations and billionaires."

So the way a lot of people here are seeing this move, one political watcher probably put it best. He said: "Senator Sinema's moved today was the equivalent of breaking up with a partner before they break up with you."

Judy Woodruff:

Really interesting to get that much criticism from the Democrats.

But, Stephanie, how do her politics now fit into Arizona's politics?

Stephanie Sy:

Well, remember, Judy, that Kyrsten Sinema won her Senate seat here in Arizona, becoming the first Democrat in decades to win a senator's seat, by saying she would be the independent voice of Arizona.

And she has continued to parrot that phrase in her media interviews with local reporters today. She said that what she is doing reflects where Arizona voters are. And, to some degree, that is seen in the statistics.

Let me show you how Arizona voters break down. The most number of registered voters are with the Republican Party. But the second largest group of voters here in Arizona are independents. And that group has grown vastly. That's followed by Democrats. Democrats who are too far left here have a hard time winning at general elections, which is why the other Democratic senator of Arizona, the junior senator, Mark Kelly, recently won his midterm election against a Republican by touting his independence from the Biden administration.

And so some might say that Kyrsten Sinema is being strategic. She denies that. And that remains a question. It is not clear that she is going to go for a second term in 2024. But one Democratic consultant said, if she does, it would be tough for her, because she does not have that Democratic base anymore.

There are a lot of Democrats that are angry with her. And there was a recent poll that the AARP did that showed that more than half of independents do not view her favorably. So it's not clear where she would get that base. But, again, she has not said she would run for reelection.

Judy Woodruff:

So interesting.

And, Lisa, just looking ahead here, who stands to gain from this, including Sinema herself, and how?

Lisa Desjardins:

That's the question. Is she going to run in 2024?

Judy Woodruff:

Yes.

Lisa Desjardins:

And until this moment, Judy, I was not sure she was going to, I thought maybe there was a chance she wouldn't.

This move makes me think that she is at least keeping that option open, because she would most certainly have a Democratic primary challenger, perhaps blocking her from getting on the ballot in November. And we know who that is, Ruben Gallego, a congressman from Arizona.

And he, of course, had something to say about this switch today. He wrote: "Unfortunately, Senator Sinema is once again putting her own interests ahead of getting things done for Arizonans."

He has not announced her Senate yet, but he has indicated that he's interested. So what we could have here is Kyrsten Sinema trying to retain her viability in running again. However, it's a problem for Democrats, because if you have her as an independent, Gallego running as a Democrat, they could split some of that Democratic vote.

A Republican who was the right Republican could come in and reclaim that seat.

Judy Woodruff:

Wow. So fascinating. We're looking at this from all angles.

Thank you, Lisa Desjardins, Stephanie Sy.