What to expect as negotiations between Israel and Hamas get underway in Egypt

John Yang:

Good evening. I'm John Yang. Israel continued bombarding parts of Gaza today, even as its negotiators prepare for mediated talks with Hamas in Egypt aimed at a deal to exchange the remaining hostages for Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. And that could be the first step toward ending the war in Gaza. Leaving the White House this morning, President Trump was optimistic.

Donald Trump, U.S. President:

You could have peace, if you think about it, peace in the Middle East for the first time in, they say, really 3,000 years. So I'm very honored to be a big part of that.

John Yang:

Appearing on ABC's this Week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio balanced optimism with the remaining hurdles.

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State: This is the closest we've come to getting all of the hostages released, every single one, all 48, including the 28 who are deceased, of course, the 20 that are still alive. But, you know, there's a lot of pitfalls along the way. There's some work to be done here.

John Yang:

In Jerusalem, near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's residence, relatives of hostages kept up their pressure for a deal.

Michel Iluz, Father of Israeli Hostage Guy Iluz: Now, when it's almost here, we feel it. We must not let this opportunity be damaged. This historic agreement must not be sacrificed again on the political altar, on the sovereignty of the prime minister, or on the chair of his political partners, like the ministers in his government.

John Yang:

The war began two years ago this week after Hamas's bloody assault on Israel. Daniel Estrin is NPR's correspondent covering the Israel Hamas war. Daniel, what should we expect from these talks, especially from the Hamas side?

Daniel Estrin, NPR:

This is a pivotal moment, but there's not a lot of optimism that this is going to be done and dusted in just a few days as Prime Minister Netanyahu suggested over the weekend. First of all, it's going to take a few days just for the top Israeli negotiator, Ron Dermer to arrive in Egypt for the talks. That's according to a person briefed on the matter.

But there is a lot to discuss here. And Netanyahu spoke about this being a matter of a couple days to discuss the technical details of a hostage release. But Hamas is saying that it's going to take a lot longer than just a few days to find the bodies of the deceased hostages in Gaza. Hamas's strategy here is really to use its one and only card, which is the hostages, and to use that for its advantage.

It's going to be asking for a lot more than just the details of the hostage release and it's going to try to obtain some concessions. For instance, Hamas might be expected to say we cannot collect the hostages alive and dead as long as Israeli bombardment is going on. And they will seek guarantees for Israel to hold its fire. It may also seek a further troop withdrawal than Israel has said it's willing to do.

So there's a lot here at stake. Hamas saying yes, but to Trump's plan, yes to releasing hostages, but to the rest. And it's enough to bring them and everyone to the table to negotiate the details.

John Yang:

Is this going to get to the issues beyond the release of the hostages to sort of what happens next to Gaza, what happens next to Hamas?

Daniel Estrin:

The short answer is we don't know. This 20-point plan that Trump put out includes all kinds of provisions, including what happens in a post-war Gaza. There's a lot of, I think, wiggle room in the fairly vague and open ended wording of Trump's plan that allows Hamas and Israel and all the sides to come to the table and say, okay, there's enough here that we need to negotiate.

There is so much to discuss about post war Gaza, about post war governance, a multinational Arab and Muslim force inside Gaza. We don't know whether Hamas and the Egyptian mediators will demand that during these talks coming up in Egypt this week that those issues get hammered out. But we should expect one thing.

Hamas will want guarantees that releasing the hostages up front, which it's willing to do now, will not allow Israel afterwards to return to war.

John Yang:

What's the mood of the people? What's the mood of people both in Gaza and in Israel?

Daniel Estrin:

I think there is cautious optimism I'm hearing on both sides in Gaza and in Israel. In Israel, there's a lot of war fatigue after two years of war. Polls show the majority of the public wants this deal for the war to end and for the hostages to return. But there is the issue of the far right flank in Netanyahu's government, which has been asking and pleading with Netanyahu to carry on with the war and to ensure that Hamas is destroyed.

And we've heard from Netanyahu's far right allies that if Hamas is not done with at the end of this prisoner hostage exchange, hostages being given up for Palestinian prisoners, that key parts of Netanyahu's coalition will quit. And so Netanyahu is facing a serious domestic political dilemma. He could lose his government over this deal.

And in Gaza, many people we've been speaking to say that they finally feel a little cautious optimism. There were large crowds that gathered hearing that Israeli troops withdrew from some parts of Gaza City. Some of those people were reported killed, according to Gaza health officials.

And even though President Trump publicly thanked Israel for stopping the bombing, in order for this process to go forward, Israel has continued in its bombardment of Gaza. It says that it's only doing defensive action and not offensive action. We don't know the definition of how Israel defines offensive versus defensive action. We do know that Gaza health officials are reporting scores of Palestinians killed just in the past day.

John Yang:

NPR's Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv tonight. Thank you very much.

Daniel Estrin:

Thank you very much.