What’s at stake for China and U.S. in Taiwan’s presidential and parliamentary elections

Amna Nawaz:

In Taiwan, voters head to the polls tomorrow for presidential and parliamentary elections. The results will be as closely watched in Beijing and Washington as they will be in Taipei.

China considers Taiwan a breakaway republic, and President Xi Jinping often speaks of reunification with the island.

Nick Schifrin looks at the candidates and the stakes for tomorrow's vote.

Nick Schifrin:

Taiwan's election is cacophonous, colorful and a little chaotic. It's also critical to the future of the region.

The leading candidate is Lai Ching-te, known as William Lai, the current vice President Trump the Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP. He vows to continue Taiwan's current de facto independence and uses more moderate language about Taiwan's relationship with mainland China than he used to.

William Lai, Taiwanese Presidential Candidate:

I will maintain the status quo and continue to bring society together. Our door will always be open to engagements with Beijing.

Nick Schifrin:

But the People's Republic of China, or PRC, appears to be keeping the door shut tight. Recent military exercises have helped deliver Beijing's election warning. There will be more tension, more satellite launches…

Man:

It's not the moon.

Nick Schifrin:

… more balloons flying over Taiwan like the one that flew over the U.S. last year if you choose William Lai.

Wang Wenbin is the Foreign Ministry spokesman.

Wang Wenbin, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman (through interpreter):

Lai Ching-te claims stubbornly to the separatist position for Taiwan independence. He is a troublemaker through and through.

Shelley Rigger, Davidson College:

Sometimes, people describe him as a pro-independence leader, but that's not really the position he's taking in this election.

Nick Schifrin:

Shelley Rigger is, the faculty dean and professor of East Asian studies at Davidson college. She spoke to us from a campaign office in Taipei.

Shelley Rigger:

His mandate, if he wins, is to maintain the current status quo across the Taiwan Strait, which is that Taiwan is a self-governing democratic entity that hasn't fully separated itself from its history as a Chinese place.

Nick Schifrin:

The main opposition candidate, Hou Yu-ih, is from the Kuomintang party, or KMT, historically less antagonistic toward Beijing than the ruling DPP.

Shelley Rigger:

For the DPP, the path to preserving the status quo is to remain close to the U.S. For the KMT candidate, Hou Yu-ih, Taiwan needs to engage with Beijing more actively in order to preserve its security and autonomy.

Nick Schifrin:

The election also features for the first time a third-party candidate, former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, popular among younger voters.

Shelley Rigger:

He's not that different on the major policy areas. His position on cross-strait relations is a little bit hard to discern. But I think his appeal is that he's a new face.

The PRC doesn't like any of these candidates, but they dislike Lai Ching-te the most.

Nick Schifrin:

That's led to what Taiwan calls Beijing's unprecedented election interference, including Lai deepfakes — that's the real Lai on the left, manipulated Lai on the right — and what the U.S. and Taiwan call disinformation about labs with dangerous viruses and bioweapons.

Independent researchers have also found a campaign of fake online accounts disparaging Lai and promoting the KMT. Taipei accuses Beijing of cyberattacks, co-opting local officials and increasing economic pressure.

William Lai:

China has intervened in every major Taiwanese election, but, this time, it is the most severe. It can be said that they are leaving no stone unturned.

Anderson Cooper, CNN Host:

So are you saying that the United States would come to Taiwan's defense if China attacked?

Joe Biden, President of the United States: Yes. Yes, we have a commitment to do that.

Nick Schifrin:

Looming behind Taipei-Beijing relations is Washington's relationship with Beijing.

The U.S. has expanded its military presence in the Pacific, especially in Japan and the Philippines, to bases closer to Taiwan. And the U.S. has worked to improve Taiwan's military. But the administration says its policy has not changed, including that Taiwan should not declare independence.

Joe Biden:

We maintain the agreement that there is a One China policy.

Shelley Rigger:

The PRC is really always worried about somehow losing Taiwan. And the thing that they worry about the most, honestly, is that the U.S. will encourage Taiwan or somehow give Taiwan a blank check to bust a move and do something that will force the PRC to respond militarily.

Nick Schifrin:

On New Year's Day, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping reiterated his promise that Taiwan and Beijing will one day fly the same flag.

Xi Jinping, Chinese President (through interpreter):

The reunification of China is a historic inevitability.

Nick Schifrin:

Of course, all politics are local. Voters have economic concerns and are exhausted of same-party rule.

But Beijing is on their mind, and young Taiwanese are increasingly proud to identify them themselves as from Taiwan, not China, with Taiwanese food…

Woman:

Just to cook it all the way.

Nick Schifrin:

Taiwanese music, including by bands banned in mainland China, and perhaps most of all, Taiwanese democracy.

Shelley Rigger:

They are going to show with their votes their determination to sustain a democratic system and to preserve their freedom.

Nick Schifrin:

Democracy here is only 35 years old, but, tomorrow, the people of Taiwan will choose their next leader, something the people of mainland China are not able to do.

For the "PBS NewsHour," I'm Nick Schifrin.