Why the war in Ukraine could get ‘much more brutal’ in the days ahead

Judy Woodruff:

For more now on Russia's invasion and the global response, we're joined by retired Lieutenant General Doug Lute. He served on the National Security Council staff during both the George W. Bush and Obama administrations. He was also U.S. ambassador to NATO during the Obama administration.

Andrew Weiss served in the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations on the National Security Council staff and in the State Department. He's now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And Adam Smith is a former U.S. Treasury official and served on the National Security Council staff during the Obama administration. He's now a partner with Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, an international law firm.

Welcome, all three of you, to the "NewsHour."

Doug Lute, let me start with you and the military situation.

We had been hearing that the Russians were having a more difficult time than they expected. But just in the last few hours this afternoon, we're hearing about increased shelling of Kharkiv. We're hearing and seeing evidence the Russians are moving closer to Kyiv.

What is your understanding of what the military situation is right now?

Lt. Gen. Doug Lute (RET.), Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO: Well, Judy, I think we should appreciate that we're in the very early days of what we should expect to be a long, protracted military campaign.

Clearly, even in these early days, Russia, however, is off its timetables. It has failed, in my view, to sustain momentum in any one of the multiple fronts that they have opened, neither the north, the center, nor the south.

My read is that they're recovering from some bad assumptions up front in their military planning. So, for example, the Ukrainians are fighting. The Russian forces, on the other hand, are largely unsynchronized. And, finally, the West is staying united. There are no fissures in the western political and economic sanctions regime.

So I think that there's some assumptions that they have to recover from. There are capabilities, however, that Russia still has and has not yet employed, mass fires, including at civilian targets, in the cities. They have not shut down the Internet. They have not shut down the communications links. They have not turned the lights off in Kyiv.

And I expect this to be much more brutal in the days ahead.

Judy Woodruff:

They are managing to kill some civilians, but I hear you saying this is the very early stages of that.

Andrew Weiss, in connection with all of this, with the Western support, we're hearing more countries say they're prepared and are now planning to ship weapons to the Ukrainians.

How fast will those weapons get to Ukraine? Can they get there fast enough to make a difference?

Andrew Weiss, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: So, it's a really good question.

Yesterday and over the weekend, we saw European leaders make dramatic and unprecedented decisions. The Germany chancellor, Olaf Scholz, announced, for the first, time Germany will send weapons into an active conflict. This is a major, almost seismic change in German foreign policy.

And then, equally impressive, the European Union is going to use its capacities, which are financial, towards military aid for Ukraine. The question on the Ukrainian side is, there's probably limits on the absorptive capacity of the Ukrainian military, based on the fact that they're in the fight and getting equipment and other material to them trained up and deployed, is something that doesn't happen overnight.

Longer-term, the question is, as the military advance continues that General Lute was describing, is, how does the Ukrainian force fall back if it needs to, and what do we do in the West to support them in a desperate situation if the Russians continue to escalate?

I think that's the real challenge ahead. Vladimir Putin is very likely to escalate things. He's not likely to walk out of Ukraine with his tail between his legs.

Judy Woodruff:

And it's a reminder, as we watch this — we're all watching this hour by hour, expecting to know where things stand. But as both of you are pointing out, this is going to be drawn out.

Let me bring you into the conversation now, Adam Smith.

We have seen, I guess you could say, unprecedented economic sanctions raining down on the Russians. What are you seeing that — and how do you see it making a difference in Moscow?

Adam Smith, Former Treasury Department Official:

So, it's not just unprecedented in name. It is unprecedented in type, in style. It is — this has never been done, the entire G7 deciding to sanction the central bank of a major economy never been done at all.

Whether or not the impact will lead to the outcome that we all want, I think time will tell. There are going to be two levels of this impact. The first, we're already seeing. And that's sort of the shock and the panic. That's the ruble falling by 40 percent. That's the Moscow Stock Exchange seizing up. That's people trying to dollarize assets quickly.

That is going to continue. But that will subside to a degree. And then, over time, in the space of weeks and certainly months, the broader economic sanctions, both with respect to the Central Bank, which are very, very impactful, the sanctions with respect to export controls and otherwise, will start to hit.

And then I think that, over time, again, in the space of weeks and certainly months, the impact on the economic fortunes of the average Russian, let alone Mr. Putin, I think will start to wane significantly.

But, again, this is unprecedented for the world community in this context.

Judy Woodruff:

But I — do I hear you saying, Adam Smith, though, that people in Russia are not going to feel this in the immediate — in the days ahead?

Adam Smith:

No, no, the panic, they're feeling right now, the panic — that's the reduction in the price of the value of the ruble, the increased interest rates will lead to inflation. That will all happen.

But that's pretty much a panic response. The more impactful issue, the more impact, where sanctions actually will learn — will turn to bite, that's going to be in the weeks and months to come, when the Central Bank runs out of money that it can use, when the ability for Russians to import things will cease or seize up significantly.

So, there's this panic approach right now, which will certainly be impactful. But the real impact of squeezing Mr. Putin, I think that's going to take a few weeks, unfortunately, if not longer.

Judy Woodruff:

Adam (sic) Weiss, how do you see Vladimir Putin feeling all this? Do you agree it could take weeks, if not longer, for him to feel any real pain from this?

Andrew Weiss:

Well, there's one important issue that President Biden has highlighted up front. The Western governments are carving out exceptions for purchases of Russian oil and gas amid all these unprecedented financial sanctions.

And so, if you look at just very rough numbers, in 2021, Russia exported 4.3 million barrels of oil per day. And, today, Russia can maybe expect interruptions on the order — unprecedented order that Adam Smith was just describing.

But that means, every day, Russia is potentially poised to import — I'm sorry — to export hundreds of millions of dollars in oil. And the question will be, do Western governments eventually realize that, just as we're causing disruption, we're allowing the Russians to refill their coffers?

And so does something need to be done to basically ratchet up the pressure? The danger in even thinking about that is the potential knock-on harm that could cause to our own economies. And given the importance of things like price at the pump, that's been something that Western leaders have been unwilling to entertain in past years.

But given what we're watching on television, I think there will be pressure on them to do something in the weeks ahead as this war gets worse.

Judy Woodruff:

And I hear — as I hear all of you talking about weeks and even months, I'm going to come back to you, Doug Lute.

Is the Ukrainian military prepared to hold on? Or the Ukrainian people, are they prepared to hold on for the weeks and even months that I hear the three of you saying it's going to take for some of these heavy sanctions and other support — supportive moves by the West toward Ukraine to take effect?

Lt. Gen. Doug Lute:

Well, look, as this extends into weeks and months, the key question here, the key variable will be logistics.

First of all, we heard from Samantha Power the logistics of the humanitarian relief effort, both in Poland and other neighboring states, but also in Western Ukraine itself, and then the logistics of the military fight. The Ukrainian military will not be able to sustain itself. We have to resupply anti-armor weapons systems, anti-air weapon systems, rations, medical supplies, and so forth.

And that resupply effort will be launched largely on the same routes that Nick Schifrin described, that is, the routes going out of Poland in particular, but Slovakia, Romania as well, back in through Western Ukraine and into the heartland. So logistics are going to be key here, Judy.

Judy Woodruff:

And staying with you, Doug Lute, is the West prepared to do that down the road? What's your sense?

Lt. Gen. Doug Lute:

I think the West is beginning to marshal that kind of major logistics effort.

But these are, again, the very early days in that effort. And all the security assistance, the different weaponry and supplies and so forth that have been offered by national governments across the NATO alliance and beyond have to be assembled, they have to be transported, and they have to get into the hands of the right people in Ukraine.

That is a major logistics problem.

Judy Woodruff:

So much to think about here.

We thank the three of you for helping us understand where we are. Doug Lute, Andrew Weiss, Adam Smith, thank you very much.

Adam Smith:

Thank you.