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By PBS NewsHour
Donald Trump was elected president, but the grand majority of polls, pollsters and prediction markets showed that a Clinton presidency was more likely. How did they get it so wrong?…
By Paul Solman
A surprise Trump win would have the about the same effect on global markets that Brexit had on UK markets.
By Eric Zitzewitz
What’s the best way to predict who will win the 2016 election? The answer may not be polls or pundits, but market forces. Predictit is a website that allows people to buy shares in a given candidate’s support in a…
Whether you call it betting or investing, one thing is clear: political prediction markets are surprisingly accurate predictors of presidential races.
By Simone Pathe
Most polls ask voters whom they plan to vote for. But it turns out that asking voters who they think will win has actually yielded more accurate results, and the 2014 midterm election was no exception. In fact, that kind…
President Barack Obama, seen here debating former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, wasn’t the only winner of the 2012 election. Thanks to offshore presidential prediction markets, one Romney-backer’s $4 million loss bankrolled a grad student’s winter break in Portugal. Photo courtesy…
President Barack Obama's election night rally at the McCormick Place convention center in Chicago. Photo by The Washington Post via Getty Images. The polls got it mostly right. Ray Fair's economic model forecast a result well within the final…
Digital Vision via Getty Images We have four questions today, since they all concern our recent story on polls, professors and prediction markets and yesterday's afternoon Making Sen$e post on how to make money on presidential prediction…
Mitt Romney and President Obama point fingers during the second presidential debate at Hofstra Univesity in New York. Photo by Charlie Neibergall/AP/New York Daily News. We first reported on presidential prediction markets in a favorite story of ours…
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