Economy Dec 15 How did the pollsters get Trump’s win so wrong? They didn’t, says economist Justin Wolfers Donald Trump was elected president, but the grand majority of polls, pollsters and prediction markets showed that a Clinton presidency was more likely. How did they get it so wrong?… By Paul Solman
Economy Nov 07 Column: The stock market doesn’t like the idea of a Trump presidency A surprise Trump win would have the about the same effect on global markets that Brexit had on UK markets. By Eric Zitzewitz
Economy Feb 18 Watch 7:25 Something better than polls for political predictions? You bet! What’s the best way to predict who will win the 2016 election? The answer may not be polls or pundits, but market forces. Predictit is a website that allows people to buy shares in a given candidate’s support in a… By PBS News Hour
Economy Feb 18 A political horse race where you can actually bet on the future president Whether you call it betting or investing, one thing is clear: political prediction markets are surprisingly accurate predictors of presidential races. By Paul Solman
Nov 10 A better way to have predicted the GOP wave By Simone Pathe Most polls ask voters whom they plan to vote for. But it turns out that asking voters who they think will win has actually yielded more accurate results, and the 2014 midterm election was no exception. In fact, that kind… Continue reading
Oct 20 Who Made Money on the Presidential Prediction Markets and Who Lost By Paul Solman President Barack Obama, seen here debating former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, wasn’t the only winner of the 2012 election. Thanks to offshore presidential prediction markets, one Romney-backer’s $4 million loss bankrolled a grad student’s winter break in Portugal. Photo courtesy… Continue reading
Nov 07 They All Got it Right: Polls, Markets, and Models By Paul Solman President Barack Obama's election night rally at the McCormick Place convention center in Chicago. Photo by The Washington Post via Getty Images. The polls got it mostly right. Ray Fair's economic model forecast a result well within the final… Continue reading
Oct 18 How to Follow the Prediction Markets in Real Time By Paul Solman Digital Vision via Getty Images We have four questions today, since they all concern our recent story on polls, professors and prediction markets and yesterday's afternoon Making Sen$e post on how to make money on presidential prediction… Continue reading
Oct 17 How to Make Money on the Presidential Prediction Markets By Paul Solman Mitt Romney and President Obama point fingers during the second presidential debate at Hofstra Univesity in New York. Photo by Charlie Neibergall/AP/New York Daily News. We first reported on presidential prediction markets in a favorite story of ours… Continue reading