Nation Feb 19 Why prediction markets are thriving – and facing scrutiny By Paul Solman, Diane Lincoln Estes
Politics Feb 17 Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket as states move to ban prediction markets The Trump administration is throwing its support behind the prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket in a critical legal battle between the growing prediction market industry and states that wish to ban these platforms. By Ken Sweet, Associated Press
Nation Jan 12 A $400,000 payout after Maduro's capture put prediction markets in the spotlight. Here's how they work The commercial use of prediction markets has skyrocketed in recent years, opening the door for people to wage their money on the likelihood of a growing list of future events. But despite some eye-catching windfalls, traders still lose money everyday. By Wyatte Grantham-Philips, Associated Press
Economy Dec 15 Watch 8:49 How prediction market prophets bet on the wrong president The election outcome shocked the world. Pollsters, pundits and prediction market traders overwhelmingly predicted a huge Clinton victory. There were, however, some dissenters. Economics correspondent Paul Solman explores how history and economic factors can shed light on the upset. By PBS News Hour
Economy Dec 15 How did the pollsters get Trump's win so wrong? They didn't, says economist Justin Wolfers Donald Trump was elected president, but the grand majority of polls, pollsters and prediction markets showed that a Clinton presidency was more likely. How did they get it so wrong?… By Paul Solman
Nov 07 Column: The stock market doesn't like the idea of a Trump presidency By Eric Zitzewitz A surprise Trump win would have the about the same effect on global markets that Brexit had on UK markets. Continue reading
Feb 18 Watch 7:25 Something better than polls for political predictions? You bet! By PBS News Hour What’s the best way to predict who will win the 2016 election? The answer may not be polls or pundits, but market forces. Predictit is a website that allows people to buy shares in a given candidate’s support in a… Continue watching
Feb 18 A political horse race where you can actually bet on the future president By Paul Solman Whether you call it betting or investing, one thing is clear: political prediction markets are surprisingly accurate predictors of presidential races. Continue reading
Nov 10 A better way to have predicted the GOP wave By Simone Pathe Most polls ask voters whom they plan to vote for. But it turns out that asking voters who they think will win has actually yielded more accurate results, and the 2014 midterm election was no exception. In fact, that kind… Continue reading
Oct 20 Who Made Money on the Presidential Prediction Markets and Who Lost By Paul Solman President Barack Obama, seen here debating former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, wasn't the only winner of the 2012 election. Thanks to offshore presidential prediction markets, one Romney-backer's $4 million loss bankrolled a grad student's winter break in Portugal. Photo courtesy… Continue reading