Oct 20 Who Made Money on the Presidential Prediction Markets and Who Lost By Paul Solman President Barack Obama, seen here debating former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, wasn't the only winner of the 2012 election. Thanks to offshore presidential prediction markets, one Romney-backer's $4 million loss bankrolled a grad student's winter break in Portugal. Photo courtesy… Continue reading
Nov 07 They All Got it Right: Polls, Markets, and Models By Paul Solman President Barack Obama's election night rally at the McCormick Place convention center in Chicago. Photo by The Washington Post via Getty Images. The polls got it mostly right. Ray Fair's economic model forecast a result well within the final… Continue reading
Oct 18 How to Follow the Prediction Markets in Real Time By Paul Solman Digital Vision via Getty Images We have four questions today, since they all concern our recent story on polls, professors and prediction markets and yesterday's afternoon Making Sen$e post on how to make money on presidential prediction… Continue reading
Oct 17 How to Make Money on the Presidential Prediction Markets By Paul Solman Mitt Romney and President Obama point fingers during the second presidential debate at Hofstra Univesity in New York. Photo by Charlie Neibergall/AP/New York Daily News. We first reported on presidential prediction markets in a favorite story of ours… Continue reading
Oct 12 Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets By Paul Solman Ohio -- which has remained Obama friendly -- is one of three key states where Romney needs to gain support in order to swing the election in his favor. Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images On the NewsHour tonight we explore… Continue reading