Mar 10 The explosion of sports betting in America By Geoff Bennett Americans legally bet close to $167 billion on sports last year, a dramatic increase since states began to broadly legalize it in 2018. Author and journalist David Hill speaks with Geoff Bennett about the rapid rise of sports gambling and… Continue reading
Feb 19 Watch 7:30 Why prediction markets are thriving – and facing scrutiny By Paul Solman, Diane Lincoln Estes Platforms that let you bet on the outcomes of future events have seen explosive growth recently. Economics correspondent Paul Solman explains how these prediction markets work and why they’re so popular and controversial. Continue watching
Feb 17 Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket as states move to ban prediction markets By Ken Sweet, Associated Press The Trump administration is throwing its support behind the prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket in a critical legal battle between the growing prediction market industry and states that wish to ban these platforms. Continue reading
Jan 12 A $400,000 payout after Maduro's capture put prediction markets in the spotlight. Here's how they work By Wyatte Grantham-Philips, Associated Press The commercial use of prediction markets has skyrocketed in recent years, opening the door for people to wage their money on the likelihood of a growing list of future events. But despite some eye-catching windfalls, traders still lose money everyday. Continue reading
Dec 15 Watch 8:49 How prediction market prophets bet on the wrong president By PBS News Hour The election outcome shocked the world. Pollsters, pundits and prediction market traders overwhelmingly predicted a huge Clinton victory. There were, however, some dissenters. Economics correspondent Paul Solman explores how history and economic factors can shed light on the upset. Continue watching
Dec 15 How did the pollsters get Trump's win so wrong? They didn't, says economist Justin Wolfers By Paul Solman Donald Trump was elected president, but the grand majority of polls, pollsters and prediction markets showed that a Clinton presidency was more likely. How did they get it so wrong?… Continue reading
Nov 07 Column: The stock market doesn't like the idea of a Trump presidency By Eric Zitzewitz A surprise Trump win would have the about the same effect on global markets that Brexit had on UK markets. Continue reading
Feb 18 Watch 7:25 Something better than polls for political predictions? You bet! By PBS News Hour What’s the best way to predict who will win the 2016 election? The answer may not be polls or pundits, but market forces. Predictit is a website that allows people to buy shares in a given candidate’s support in a… Continue watching
Feb 18 A political horse race where you can actually bet on the future president By Paul Solman Whether you call it betting or investing, one thing is clear: political prediction markets are surprisingly accurate predictors of presidential races. Continue reading
Nov 10 A better way to have predicted the GOP wave By Simone Pathe Most polls ask voters whom they plan to vote for. But it turns out that asking voters who they think will win has actually yielded more accurate results, and the 2014 midterm election was no exception. In fact, that kind… Continue reading