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Week of 2.8.08
Transcript: Spinning Election StrategiesBRANCACCIO: Greetings, Dan.SCHNUR: Greeting, David BRANCACCIO: We're going to get to the Democrats in a second here. But, I have to ask you about this. The hardcore of the Republican Party, the base, and that includes some conservative Evangelicals—they want to burn your old boss, John McCain, at the stake. SCHNUR: Well, there's no question John McCain has some work to do in terms of reaching out and motivating the conservative base of the Republican Party behind his candidacy. But give him some credit. Through Florida and through this week's Super Tuesday vote it looks like he's beginning to make some progress among conservatives. That said, to the point of your question, like I said he certainly has a ways to go. BRANCACCIO: But, which one is going to be for him, Dan? I mean, what scares the Democrats the most about John McCain as an opponent is his appeal to the center. But, he can't have it both ways. SCHNUR: Well, every presidential nominee tries to have it both ways. Bill Clinton tried to motivate liberal democrats. At the same time he reached out to the political center. George W. Bush tried to do the same thing by talking about compassion of conservatism in the 2000 campaign. But McCain has shown such talent over the years at reaching out to centrists. I think the point of your question is the right one. My guess is a three- pronged approach. BRANCACCIO: So, if he can make the debate going into November about national security issues or if world events do that for him, he's in a strong position obviously. SCHNUR: Well, that's precisely right. And if you looked at the run off to the Florida primary a week or so ago, as the debate was shifting to economic issues on which Governor Romney held some advantage, McCain very quickly moved to change the conversation back to Iraq—back to the war on terrorism. And ultimately that played to his benefit. BRANCACCIO: So point one—national security. SCHNUR: Point two would be the ironic presence of a whole number of independent expenditure committees and 527s eviscerating the Democratic nominee for President. I say ironically, of course, because John McCain led the fight for campaign finance reform in the early part of this decade. But these committees do exist. BRANCACCIO: So, point two—call in the swift voters. SCHNUR: And then third and probably the most important thing for McCain to do, if only because it's going to receive so much attention and so much scrutiny, is his selection of a running mate. If John McCain picks a vice presidential nominee who sends a message to conservatives that he, McCain, understands their priorities and their concerns, he has the ability to make up a lot of ground there. BRANCACCIO: So, a hardcore, conservative running mate like who? SCHNUR: Well, he needs a conservative running mate, no question. But the other thing he probably needs is a running mate from outside the beltway. John McCain is 71 years old. He's been in Congress for roughly a quarter of a century. He needs someone who can help him sell a message of change. So, if you look at the ranks of conservative governors, you can look at people like Mark Sanford of South Carolina. People like Tim Pawlenty, the Governor of Minnesota, and Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi. Now of course the ideal pick would be Former Governor Jeb Smith of Florida. But, of course, as we all know, Jeb's last name isn't Smith. BRANCACCIO: Oh, it begins with a B—Jeb somebody. (LAUGHTER) He's got the wrong name, though, doesn't he? BRANCACCIO: Look, if national security is the big issue, McCain has got this advantage as you point out in many people's minds. But, let's take a look at the economy. I can give you one statement of certainty during this interaction—the economy this year in the United States is going to stink, and John McCain's credentials in that area are a little weaker. He told the Boston Globe late last year—this is a quote—"The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should," he said. SCHNUR: Yeah, one of John McCain's terms over the years, one of the keys to his political success, has been this willingness not just to engage in what he calls straight talk, but to be very self depreciating. Which is fairly unusual for a politician. I think one of the things he's going have to learn as a nominee is what was self deprecating and charming when you're an underdog gets taken pretty seriously when you're a front runner. BRANCACCIO: But it's the sort of thing that Mitt Romney tried to use, and that Senator Clinton or Senator Obama will try to use as well. That said, your underlying point is the right one. He's much better off if this conversation stays on national security. BRANCACCIO: When you go around the country as we do reporting the story of this primary season, what you hear a lot about very directly is the economic insecurity that many Americans, Republicans and Democrats face. I want you to take a look at something. This is a couple that we met outside of Chicago a few weeks ago—Steve and Melanie. He got sick. He couldn't work consistently. They had a cash crunch. When we spoke with them, they were packing up their house because it was to be foreclosed upon. STEVE: It seems like the American worker is getting shafted big time. He's working hard. He's doing his thing. He wants to live in his home. But now, everything is going up except the pay. Matter of fact, the pay's probably getting lower, if you really look at it. They have people working, you know, twice as hard because they let somebody else go. And, you know, it just goes deep, man. And I'm a little bit angry at everything, you know, about losing my house, the situation. BRANCACCIO: And who is Steve and Melanie going to vote for? They were going to stay Republican because of the abortion issue. Now, that's a tendency that could help Mike Huckabee, I think, right? SCHNUR: Well, I don't know that there's anything at this point that can bring Mike Huckabee back into a serious fight for the nomination. My guess, at this point, is that his primary value is probably as a foil to John McCain. The two of them can go from state to state sort of like the Harlem Globetrotters and the Washington Generals. And once a week John McCain can talk about how conservative he is and beat Mike Huckabee in another primary. But to put foward the more serious issue of what this couple is facing, in terms of the economy—there is no question this country is heading into much more difficult economic waters. But what's remarkable is how quickly this issue has risen in terms of voter concerns. Go back three, four months ago, when it was registering at a much lower level. And, consequently, really, no candidate of either party, with the possible exception of John Edwards, has really been talking about economic issues in a context that might have an appeal to voters like this. Had this recession started to kick in six months earlier Edwards might be on his way to the Democratic nomination right now. But as it stands, not only McCain, but both Obama and Clinton, I think have a lot of work to do in terms of retooling their economic messages to reach out to voters like these. BRANCACCIO: Now, take a look at this. We were in Kansas not too long ago. And we were talking to Reverend Gene Carlson who is very fierce on the subject of abortion. He's been arrested protesting outside an abortion clinic years ago. But, he's come to the view that politics does not serve his religion well and is moving away from party politics. Let's take a look. CARLSON: We hoped Roe vs. Wade would be challenged and changed. But nothing really ever happened by way of changing Roe vs. Wade. BRANCACCIO: And that upsets you? Has it disillusioned you? CARLSON: Oh, I think if it hasn't disillusioned me it's helped me to realize the political solution may not be where it is at. CARLSON: "When you mix religion and politics you tend to end up with politics." (Laughs) CARLSON SAYS THAT HE STILL CARES DEEPLY ABOUT THE ABORTION ISSUE, BUT HE SAYS THAT PEOPLE NEED TO CARE ABOUT ALL CHILDREN AND THAT MEANS WORRYING ABOUT ISSUES LIKE THE OVERLOAD OF KIDS IN THE FOSTER CARE SYSTEM.. SOME OF HIS NEW THINKING HAS LED CARLSON, A REGISTERED REPUBLICAN BEYOND THE PARTY. CARLSON: For years I realized that even here in this city and in our church there was some kind of unhealthy perception that we were a Republican church. And I don't think that's good. I didn't like that. BRANCACCIO: Coming back, the Pastor Carlson said he was going to remain open minded about just who was going to vote for at that point that we spoke with him. But, if you take a look, add up all the primaries so far—Evangelical Christians like Pastor Carlson have been pretty split among Republicans. There was McCain getting about 30 percent, 36 percent to Huckabee. And the guy who dropped out late this week. I believe his name was Mitt Romney. He was still pulling fairly well among them. Evangelical Christians go in a lot of different directions. SCHNUR: The real interesting thing in this, and you guys did an excellent show on this topic recently, is the evolution, if you will, of the evangelical vote. Not just among various Republican candidates, but across party lines, is that more and more religiously inclined voters tend to think about their votes not only in terms of abortion and stem cell research and same sex marriage, but poverty, the environment, the tragedy in Darfur. And while I think the Democratic Party certainly has a long, long way to go- BRANCACCIO: Now, in an earlier incarnation, Dan, you were using your fiendish talents to thwart Democrats who were trying to get into high office. But, while we're both offering unsolicited opinions to the Republicans here, particularly John McCain, let's turn our attention to Clinton/Obama. I mean, it's almost comical. You pick your medium: NBC, the Associated Press, and you'll get a different delegate tally for those two candidates. So, what's your arithmetic at this point? SCHNUR: Well, I am not going to share my Math SATs with you. As near as I can tell this race is tied. And for all practical purposes, even given the number of states that have voted, and the tens of millions of dollars that have been spent, they are back at ground zero. And from what happens forward, heading into the so called primary next week, and then out across the rest of the country through February and March and April, I don't see any sign of this primary fight being decided anytime soon. BRANCACCIO: There's the arithmetic of the delegates. But, there's also identity politics playing out here—something that you probably saw quite directly during the vote in California this past week, Dan. We saw a lot of this when we were traveling with one of our reporting teams to the state of Florida where it was not hard to find people who had voted Republican last time were mightily hacked off with the Republican party for its position on immigration that some people we talked to saw as really indicting legal Hispanic American voters, not just those who have cross into this country illegally. Let's take a look. HINOJOSA: How many of you feel, raise your hands, that the issue has gone beyond just talking about illegal immigration, and it's now become an issue of anti-Latino attacks? RODRIGUEZ: I would say that, absolutely. HINOJOSA: All of you. LOPEZ: The hatred and the venom is so sharp. DE ROSA: Middle America is losing their jobs. So, Middle America is now blaming the brown people, and we're not to blame. BRANCACCIO: So, conventional wisdom here is that John McCain on the Republican side is the man to deal with that kind of sentiment, right? SCHNUR: Well, McCain, as you and your viewers know, cosponsored legislation last summer that would have allowed for a naturalization process for illegal immigrants. SCHNUR: Well, that's exactly right. And one of the real breaks for McCain in this campaign is when the bullets were really flying over this issue, both Romney and Giuliani thought McCain was dead. So, they were firing at each other. And McCain didn't really escape a lot of the criticism, at least on the campaign trail on this issue. But as much as it's hurt him among conservatives, McCain's sponsorship of this naturalization legislation does present him opportunities in a general election with Hispanic American voters that might not be available to other candidates. Just a couple statistics for you David. In 1996, when Bill Clinton was reelected, he achieved almost three quarters of the Hispanic American vote. Four years later Al Gore received roughly 65 percent of that vote. And four years ago John Kerry received 54 percent of the Hispanic American vote. Had Kerry drawn even what Gore did four years earlier, among Hispanics, John Kerry would have carried the stats of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, and finished the election with 271 electoral votes. So, certainly if Senator Clinton ends up being the nominee there's going to be an incentive on her part to take a very long look at someone like Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico who not only has very significant foreign policy, but although you'd never know it by his surname, is one of the country's most prominent Latino elected officials. BRANCACCIO: Sure, of course, and actually, Hillary Clinton is already doing pretty well with Hispanic voters. Taking a look at the tallies from California, it broke two to one in her favor on the Democratic side. SCHNUR: Oh, yeah. If you look at the Democratic primary, along with female voters and in particularly older female voters, the people who brought Hillary Clinton her victories on Tuesday tended to be of Hispanic origin. And, you know, she and her husband are very well known and very well liked in these communities. Because their campaign organization has been in gear for such a long time they've had a very considerable outreach effort in place. And while Obama has been scrambling to make up ground, most notably with the endorsement of Senator Kennedy, it's pretty clear now that if Clinton does end up as the Democratic party nominee it's going because- of female voters and Hispanic voters. BRANCACCIO: But, California has already been fought. The next big states, the really big ones besides the Potomac primaries next week is going to be places like Texas and Ohio in a little over three weeks time. And immigration as an issue cuts very differently for both Clinton, Obama and McCain in a place like Ohio, right? SCHNUR: Well, it probably doesn't matter as much for McCain if only because he does have the nomination in hand. And, again, if Huckabee does stay in the race, and the primaries get a little bit more public attention, if anything, McCain can use those opportunities to talk to conservatives about how he says that now that border control needs to come first before the naturalization process that he advocates. For Clinton though there's a real opportunity here. BRANCACCIO: All right, but they always tell journalists like me to follow the money. Let's take a look at the money here. Both Obama and Clinton apparently raised a lot of money since Super Tuesday. Four million according to the Clinton campaign since Super Tuesday, and seven million for Obama. But, there was one point where, it became known that Hillary Clinton actually wrote a personal check to her own campaign. It was a little bit of a cash flow issue there. But, what they're going do with this, of course, in part is buy ads. And one of the ads that the Clinton campaign is running is this one. (Hillary Commercial) BRANCACCIO: Clearly one to play to Senator Clinton's strength, right? SCHNUR: And going back to the money question. There are many reasons that Hillary Clinton still might lose the Democratic nomination for president. Lack of financial resources is not going to be one of them. Even if they hit a little bit of a bump in the road earlier this week, and now it's debatable how much of a bump that was, I think it's very, very unlikely that she's not going to have the money she needs to see this all the way through the rest of the primary schedule. The other thing to think about in this regard is I think if there's one thing we've learned from Mitt Romney's campaign, or been reminded of from Mitt Romney's campaign, is that the diminishing returns of huge amounts of campaign spending. You need to spend a certain amount to get your ads heard, to get your organization in place. But, after that, you're pretty much making the rubble bounce. And, ultimately, I suspect this Democratic nomination is going to be decided much more on the airwaves, in the newspapers, on the television news programs and on the Internet. BRANCACCIO: Well, that's interesting, Dan, because you mentioned the Internet there. Barack Obama is buying regular television ads, of course, with a lot of that money. But, he's also getting some free media. Take a look at this music video produced by Will.i.am with the Black Eyed Peas. It's quite striking. ( Obama ad) BRANCACCIO: Well, Dan Schnur, it's a visual tour de force. But, the thing is, that was available for viewing well before Super Tuesday in a place like California, where it should really bring out the youth to vote in droves? That's not exactly what happened in your state there. SCHNUR: I guess I'd make a couple of points. First and more importantly, one of the few things I don't like about being a Republican is that we tend to get the country music singers. As somebody who listens to alternative and classic rock, I have to say I watch something like that and I get a little bit jealous. Because what I realize is unless I switch parties, I'm never going to get to meet Fergie. But back to your question. I think a video like this helps in that it raises interest. But one of the things I see on campus, but at Berkeley and at USC is that these students, these young voters, while they listen to music, while they watch movies, while they spend a lot of time online, they're smart. They might pay a little bit more attention to Barack Obama because they see a compelling music video, but they're not going to vote for him just because of that. A celebrity endorsement, whether it's, you know, whether it's Oprah, you know, whether it's Magic Johnson, whoever it happens to be, those endorsements very rarely swing votes. What they do, rather, is they expand the window of opportunity through which candidates can talk to voters. So particularly for a younger voter or another more casual observer, something like this gives Obama a greater opportunity to talk to them. BRANCACCIO: But, you're a hard-bitten veteran. We keep talking about getting young people out to vote in these elections. And in the end, do they really show? SCHNUR: Well, historically they have not, but I have to say, I admire any candidate—I take my hat off to any politician who can rev up that level of enthusiasm and excitement among younger voters. And one of the things you see not only on campus but among voters in their mid to late 20s, early 30s, is a level of interest and engagement that's been missing from politics over the last several years. But once again, a video like this doesn't close the sale for him. BRANCACCIO: Another key tactic in a campaign are the nasty ones: the smear tactics, the propaganda, disinformation, whatever you want to call it. Hillary Clinton during her speech on the night of Super Tuesday in Manhattan had a vivid line. She said, "Now I won't let anyone swift vote this country's future." SCNHUR: Some very ugly, nasty, bitter stuff BRANCACCIO: Now, Dan Schnur, before we go, I have to ask you this. You have spent a lot of time with John McCain. Do you have any insight into who John McCain would rather run against in November? SCHNUR: For me, I am in the very, very small minority of Republicans who think that Senator Clinton would be a much more difficult general election opponent. Most smart people in my party think that her presence and her history would mobilize the conservative base, even on behalf of Senator McCain, in a way that would be very helpful to him. There's a lot of Clinton haters out there, no question across the ideological spectrum. But I guess from where I stand, one of the lessons I've learned over the last 15 years as a Republican in national politics—rule number one, you never, ever underestimate anybody who's last name is Clinton. They're really good at what they do. BRANCACCIO: But, maybe you're underestimating the other fellow—Barack Obama. He really has an amazing reservoir of charisma that also plays to that very center. SCHNUR: I mean I don't underestimate Obama, at all. We talked earlier—my own thinking though—he's shown a tremendous ability, as we discussed earlier to rally excitement and enthusiasm among younger voters, and among other casual voters. He really does have the potential to be a transformational politician in this country. But particularly in a campaign against Senator McCain, I think his relative lack of time on the politic stage, his relative lack of experience on national security issues is going to be much more of a detriment to him. BRANCACCIO: Now, Dick Cheney says, "This is all irrelevant in effect." He said late this week that it will be a Republican who will be the next resident of the Oval Office. He has yet to endorse the frontrunner John McCain. I don't know, Dan. Isn't Dick Cheney a squandered resource for the Republicans. He should be out there campaigning. SCHNUR: I think that's right. I think Cheney should be campaigning a lot more. And I think Al Sharpton should be campaigning a lot more. I'm obviously being sarcastic. I think Cheney would do just as much for McCain's prospects as Sharpton or Kucinich, or Shirley MacLaine would do for Obama or Clinton's prospects. |
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