The president's strong backing from religious conservatives echoed findings last spring in a RELIGION & ETHICS NEWSWEEKLY national survey of American evangelicals. Three quarters of white evangelicals said the country's moral values are on the wrong track. More than a third ranked moral values as their number one concern.
With us now to analyze the religious vote in the presidential election is John Green, director of the Ray Bliss Center for Applied Politics at the University of Akron in Ohio. He is one of the country's leading experts on religion and politics. He joins us now by satellite, and Kim Lawton of RELIGION & ETHICS NEWSWEEKLY is also here. John, how would you describe the importance of religious conservatives to the president's reelection?
Professor JOHN GREEN (Ray C. Bliss Center for Applied Politics, University of Akron): Well, religious conservatives were absolutely critical to President Bush's reelection last Tuesday. But it was a broader coalition of religious groups. Central to that group were evangelical Protestants, but it also included Catholics, black Protestants, and other groups as well.ABERNETHY: We have detailed breakdowns of the exit polls conducted on Election Day by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. Kim.
KIM LAWTON: John, help us walk through some of those specific groups that you just talked about. And we have the numbers. Let's take a look first at the white evangelical vote. We have 78 percent of white evangelicals voted for Bush, and 22 percent did vote for Kerry. But when you switch that and look at church attendance, there was another jump. Those who attend church more than once a week -- it jumped to 81 percent for George Bush. I know the Republicans made a really big push for evangelicals; there was a lot of grassroots mobilization. They called it the "ground game." Looks like it was pretty successful, doesn't it?
Prof. GREEN: Oh yes, it was. Of course, white evangelicals have been part of the Republican coalition for about 20 years now. But in this very close election, Karl Rove and President Bush wanted to get a very big turnout and a lot of support. And they, by and large, got what they wanted.LAWTON: Now, word had it that Karl Rove was very unhappy during the last election with evangelical turnout. Did that improve this time around?
Prof. GREEN: You know, we don't have the final figures on turnout yet. But it really does look like he was successful in urging the evangelicals to turn out in larger numbers, particularly in the swing states like Florida and Ohio.
LAWTON: What about other Protestants -- mainline Protestants -- how did they go?
Prof. GREEN: Well, mainline Protestants have long been a mainstay of the Republican Party. Typically, Republican presidents win about half of the vote. And that happened this time. President Bush got a majority of mainline Protestants. But his support was down a little bit from the 2000 election, particularly among the regular[ly] attending mainline Protestants.
LAWTON: This was a group that the Kerry campaign had really targeted. Were they successful?
Prof. GREEN: Well, apparently they were. This was one real bright spot for the Kerry campaign among the religious groups. A lot of those regular[ly] attending mainline Protestants have somewhat more liberal theology and care about issues like the environment and poverty, and Senator Kerry was able to reduce the president's margins among that group and do quite well.
LAWTON: Let's talk about another group. There were some surprises in black Protestants, a little bit. When you look at the numbers, 83 percent did vote for Kerry. But those who identify themselves as black Protestants, 16 percent voted for Bush. And when you add church attendance into the mix, it really jumps: 22 percent of black Protestants who go to church more than once a week voted for Bush. Now people might say, "Well, 80 percent still voted for Kerry." Is this a big deal?Prof. GREEN: Well, in a very close election, this is a big deal because the president was able to eat into a core Democratic constituency. You know, there were some surveys before the election that suggested that this might happen. And indeed it came to pass. And I suspect it's because of issues like gay marriage that were strongly emphasized by many black pastors. Sixteen percent of the vote is about twice what President Bush received in 2000. So this was a gain for him.
LAWTON: Let's look at the Catholic vote. That seemed to be pretty divided. We had 52 percent for Bush, 48 percent for Kerry. Again, among regular Mass attenders, then, the numbers jump even higher for Bush -- 58 percent. What did you make of that?
Mr. LOCONTE: Yeah, well, I think we are going to see, surprisingly -- I think we are going to see President Bush govern more like a principled pragmatist than many of his critics are right now assuming. They are assuming that he owes his great debt to his religious, conservative base on certain issues and that he is going to push the cultural agenda forward. But I don't think that's really Bush's governing style, 'cause he has shown real restraint on some of these cultural issues, these hot button cultural issues -- stem cell research, for example. He was only kind of pulled into the gay marriage debate, somewhat unwillingly. So I think there is going to be much more of a kind of a principled pragmatism to deal with these issues in the next months and years.
ABERNETHY: John?
