Experts discuss obstacles to Palestinian statehood and Saudi-Israeli normalization

Nick Schifrin:

Now we get two perspectives. Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a longtime State Department official in both Democratic and Republican administrations. And Khaled Elgindy is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, where he directs their Program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs. He's participated in previous Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

Thanks very much, both of you. Welcome back to the "NewsHour."

Khaled Elgindy, let me start with you.

Let's start with what's on the table right now, and this is the Hamas hostage deal. So far, Hamas has refused any deal that doesn't say the words permanent cease-fire. This deal does not have that. Is it still possible, do you think, to get a Hamas-Israel hostage-for-pause deal today?

Khaled Elgindy, Middle East Institute:

I think it's possible.

I think what Hamas will look for short of exactly those words will be some assurances that a temporary pause would be treated as an effective cease-fire. So, if they can get those kinds of assurances from the United States, in particular, then I think Hamas could be persuaded to go along.

Nick Schifrin:

Aaron David Miller, this is a longer pause, in the American nomenclature, than we have had in the past. Could that six-week-plus pause become effectively a cease-fire?

Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Frankly, I think the Israelis will be operating in Gaza for months to come even if this hostage deal actually materializes.

And whatever commitments the Israeli make to a permanent — quote-unquote — "cease-fire," I think all bets are off. They're determined, I think, to identify, find, and eliminate key Hamas leaders that were responsible for October 7. So I think it's possible you may get a break. How long that break will be and whether it can be turned into something more permanent is another matter entirely.

Nick Schifrin:

Khaled Elgindy, let us zoom all the way out.

The pot at the end of this rainbow, as I said, is Saudi-Israel normalization, what the Saudis are now calling irrevocable steps toward a two-state solution. Is that possible with the Biden administration as mediator and this Israeli government?

Khaled Elgindy:

I think it's certainly possible that the parties, the Saudis, the Israelis, the Americans, could strike a formula that works for the three of them.

I'm not sure that it will be meaningful in the end, but it might be enough to persuade all sides to attach their names to it. I think the problem isn't with getting people to accept a state. Even Donald Trump had a plan for a Palestinian state, at the end of the day, as devoid of meaning and sovereignty as it was.

I think what would be far more useful is if the United States, in particular, were talking about laying out a clear plan for ending Israel's occupation, both in Gaza, but also in the West Bank and Jerusalem. If the plan were focused on ending Israel's occupation, then it would be much more meaningful.

But as it stands, sure, a statehood, a Palestinian state, two-state solution, these are throwaway lines that have been agreed to and ignored in the past.

Nick Schifrin:

Aaron David Miller, should the U.S. be more focused on Israeli occupation than talking about two states?

Aaron David Miller:

Well, any meaningful commitment to Palestinian statehood by an Israeli government that was serious about negotiating a deal and a Palestinian partner that was serious as well is going to bring about, must bring about the end of Israel's occupation.

I do agree with Khaled that I think such a deal is possible. I'm concerned about it. I think we risk overpaying the Saudis in bilateral coin. A mutual defense treaty, I don't think we have concluded one with any country since the 1960 U.S.-Japan treaty was revised. Giving the Saudis access to American nuclear technology without — allowing them to control the fuel cycle, that's a huge blow to our proliferation policy.

And I also worry that, in the end, whatever commitments the Israeli — this Israeli government makes is not going to lead to — irrevocably to a serious negotiation. Palestinians have to produce a partner. Israelis need to be serious as well. Then we can start talking. I don't think Israeli-Saudi normalization is the key to ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Nick Schifrin:

That outside-to-in strategy has been continued by the Biden administration. It was started by the Trump administration.

But pick up, Khaled Elgindy, on that point that Aaron David Miller made about a Palestinian partner. Is there a Palestinian partner? And is there a — quote, unquote — "revitalized," to use Tony Blinken's word, revitalized Palestinian Authority? Is that possible?

Khaled Elgindy:

What's more important than a revitalized Palestinian Authority is to have a revitalized Palestinian leadership.

Whether it's the Palestinian Authority is irrelevant. What Palestinians need is a national leadership, and that speaks for all Palestinians, both inside and outside the occupied territories. That, we don't have. Mahmoud Abbas is not that leader. He has been parochial. He's been ineffective. He's been weak.

I think it is possible to imagine a different Palestinian internal political configuration, but it's something that Palestinians have to do on their own. But I would add to that leadership equation the United States. The United States has not been an effective broker. It has not managed this crisis well.

It has actually taken, I think, very reckless decisions from the get-go, giving Israel a green light with no red lines of any sort. And we are now four months into this horror in Gaza, and they have sort of painted themselves into a corner.

So we also need a credible American leadership that understands and has empathy for and the ability to connect with people on both sides. Right now, the Biden administration has only managed to show humanity and empathy for the Israeli side.

Nick Schifrin:

Aaron David Miller, is there a version of the Biden administration policy that would be less — quote — "reckless," less painted into a corner and more empathetic?

Aaron David Miller:

It would be really, really difficult. The empathy part, I think, is, sadly, lacking.

This president clearly has an emotional attachment to Israel. He has a high regard for the people of Israel, the idea of Israel, the security of Israel, not so much, obviously, for the current Israeli prime minister. But I think that lack of empathy is important.

As to whether the United States could be a credible broker, we're facing probably among the most consequential elections in American history. The real question, I think, for the administration, since governing is about choosing, is whether, in this kind of an election year, this administration is prepared to be risk-ready when it comes to Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, not risk-averse.

The Israeli-Saudi piece is the easy part. It's whether or not the United States can be a credible mediator if, in fact — and I don't think we're talking about this happening any time soon — if you ended up with an Israeli-Palestinian negotiation.

Last time, Camp David, I was there. Didn't succeed. We were facing gaps that were way, way, way too large. But we also didn't take charge of the summit. We need to be credible. We need to apply honey when it counts, assurances to both parties. But we also are going to have to apply plenty of vinegar, disincentives.

Nobody's ever going to plant a tree in your honor if you make peace between Israelis and Palestinians. It's a tough lift.

Nick Schifrin:

Khaled Elgindy, quickly, though, is there not an advantage to having an administration that is talking to the Palestinians, unlike the Trump administration, and at least saying to the region, this is where we're going, this is, as I put it earlier, the pot at the end of the rainbow?

Khaled Elgindy:

Yes, if we're looking at things in absolute minimalist terms, sure. I mean, that's the bare minimum required, is the ability to talk to both sides.

But it's more important to go beyond that and actually understand where the two sides are coming from. The United States has always struggled with trying to connect with, understand, have empathy for Palestinians. But this administration, I think, has a much bigger blind spot than any previous administration that I have ever seen.

Nick Schifrin:

Aaron David Miller, quickly, would Benjamin Netanyahu be willing to jettison his right-wing coalition if offered a deal that would end with normalization with Saudi Arabia?

Aaron David Miller:

I'm betting he's going to rely on what he knows, a right-wing Israeli government. If he goes for the deal, he's going to end up with new partners. And those partners don't have much regard for Mr. Netanyahu on trial for bribery, fraud, breach of trust in a Jerusalem district court.

I suspect, if he goes through this deal, far from his being his legacy, I think it's going to number his days.

Nick Schifrin:

Aaron David Miller, Khaled Elgindy, thank you very much to you both.

Aaron David Miller:

Thank you, Nick.

Khaled Elgindy:

Thank you.