How Pennsylvania’s midterm races impact the future of politics

Geoff Bennett:

With just over five weeks left until the midterm elections, this week we turn to Pennsylvania and two high profile races expected to have a significant impact on both the state and country's political futures.

With control of the U.S. Senate on the line, Pennsylvania voters could determine if Democrats maintain their majority.

Dr. Mehmet Oz, Republican Senate Candidate Of Pennsylvania:

Is the country headed in the right direction.

Geoff Bennett:

Mehmet Oz, a TV doctor turned Republican Senate candidate is running against the state's Lieutenant Governor Democrat John Fetterman to fill the seat of retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey. In this hotly contested race, Fetterman is painting Oz as an out of touch outsider who doesn't care about Pennsylvanians.

John Fetterman, Democrat Senate Candidate Of Pennsylvania:

Can we get this room so loud that we can let him hear it in New Jersey right now.

Geoff Bennett:

While Oz continues to question the health of Fetterman, who suffered a stroke in May, and in one of the most watched races for governor, Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, running against Republican state senator Doug Mastriano.

Shapiro was facing questions about whether his low key style will energize Democratic voters, while Mastriano is a leading voice advancing Donald Trump's lies about election fraud. He was also at the U.S. Capitol on the day of the insurrection in both races issues such as reproductive rights, the economy, crime —

John Fetterman:

Public safety is why I ran for office.

Geoff Bennett:

— and education.

Douglas Mastriano, Republican State Senator:

They're indoctrinating our children at school with critical race theory —

Geoff Bennett:

Are expected to be deciding factors for voters.

To help us dig into the dynamics of both races in Pennsylvania, I'm joined by Jonathan Tamari, national political reporter for The Philadelphia Inquirer, and Candy Woodall, Congress and campaigns reporter for USA Today. Thank you both for being with us.

And let's start with the Senate race because early this past summer, Democrat John Fetterman looked like he was going to cruise to victory over his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz, but the polls have tightened in recent weeks. And now it's a more competitive race. So Jonathan, give us a sense of what's happening.

Jonathan Tamari, National Political Reporter, The Philadelphia Inquirer:

Yes, so I think what we saw in the summer was a function of the two different primaries that the candidates went through. Oz went through a brutal Republican primary with a ton of spending both for him and also against him. There are a lot of attacks on him as being not really conservative. His opponents brought up some of his past statements on things like guns and abortion to say he didn't really believe in conservative values. And he ended up winning a little less than a third of the Republican votes. So there was seven and 10. Republicans, you know, who chose somebody else in their primary.

And on the other hand, Fetterman just cruised through the Democratic primary and one basically, in a run. So he had the Democratic Primary — Democratic electorate united with him from the start. Oz had a lot of work to do to get even his base voters, the base Republicans on board with him after that primary, and what it looks like is happening is that those voters have now eventually started to come home to Oz and are now supporting him.

And look, it's Pennsylvania, when both parties have their bases activated it's pretty evenly split. And that's what we're starting to see in that Senate race.

Geoff Bennett:

In candy while Mehmet Oz the Republican has narrowed the polling gap. There is polling that shows Pennsylvanians still seeing him somewhat unfavorably. There's still a lack of enthusiasm for him as a candidate. How is he trying to address that?

Candy Woodall, Congress and Campaigns Reporter, USA Today: I'm not sure that he is addressing his deficiencies yet at this point. That's what analysts and pollsters are saying, and they say that's hurting him, that he's not addressing some of those things.

Instead, he seems to be taking the fight to Fetterman and he's running a ton of ads. He's getting a lot of money and help and support from the National Senatorial Committee and also the Senate Leadership Fund. They're trying to flip control the Senate. They want to be the majority party. And they're putting a lot of money about 16 million in a month into TV ads in Pennsylvania. They're trying to paint Fetterman as soft on crime. So he seems to be addressing this by going on more offense.

Geoff Bennett:

Let's talk about the governor's race, Jonathan, because polling in that contest shows Democrat Josh Shapiro, he's still leading Republican Doug Mastriano by double digits. So why are Republican voters at the moment not coalescing around Mastriano in the same way that they are around us?

Jonathan Tamari:

Mastriano, you know, is kind of the opposite case, he won his primary much more easily than Oz did. But Mastriano is a much more extreme figure from the far right. And election denier, leading election denier who was at the Capitol on January 6, although says he did not go into the building. He says that he would ban abortion with no exceptions whatsoever. He's tried to kind of walk that back. But then other times he's reinforced it. And that does appear to be his position.

And he has really done no outreach to voters who are outside of his original base of support. He pretty much speaks only to very far right media. His events are until very recently, largely closed. And so he's only speaking to people who already support him. So there's even a significant segment of Republicans more moderate Republicans and swing voters that are just not coming around to Mastriano.

And most importantly, we talked about TV spending. He has not run a single ad on television, and that's hard to win in a state that's as large as Pennsylvania without being on television. Shapiro has spent over $20 million on television. It's basically unheard of to see that kind of severity.

Geoff Bennett:

And candy, on the issues, nationally you have Republicans trying to make the midterms about the economy, inflation, immigration and crime. Democrats are hoping that reproductive rights will be a dominant political issue, which seem to be resonating in Pennsylvania in these two races that we're talking about.

Candy Woodall:

I think it's, you know, not to be too cliche, but it's kind of a base race. And, you know, the abortion issue is rallying a lot of Democrats. But as we've seen in even other states during the primary, it also is motivating independents and Republicans.

I think the question that even Democrats are trying to figure out what leading up to the midterms is, how motivating will it be on November 8? Keep in mind, that's going to be the beginning of the holiday season, families that were already struggling are going to be squeezed even more.

So how do people feel when they're voting, you know, on November 8, about their economic position? That could have a bit big impact, but I'm not sure we know that answer yet. As to what is the most motivating.

I will also add that Republicans nationally like we're seeing with Oz making the issue with Fetterman about crime. That is definitely part of a national strategy. And we are seeing Republicans and every battleground state and really across the map making trying to make the issue of crime.

Geoff Bennett:

Candy Woodall and Jonathan Tamari, thank you both for your insights. I appreciate it.

Jonathan Tamari:

Thank you.