Inflation, economy top of mind for Arizona voters ahead of the midterms

Geoff Bennett:

Time now for our Weekend Briefing. There are just over two weeks left until voters decide who controls Congress and dozens of governors' mansions across the country.

This week, we focus on to close contests in Arizona. In the open race for governor Republican Kari Lake, a former Phoenix news anchor faces Democrat Katie Hobbs, Arizona's Secretary of State and Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is running for reelection against Republican Blake Masters who happens to be a venture capitalist. Kelly was first elected during a special election two years ago.

Andrew Oxford has been covering these races for Arizona Public Media and joins us now. It's great to have you here. And let's start Andrew with the governor's race of this year's entire slate of pro Trump candidates. I think it's safe to say that Kari Lake seems to have the best chance of winning. The Democrat in this race Katie Hobbs has been criticized for running a low key campaign. So how is this race shaping up with just a few weeks left to go?

Andrew Oxford, Arizona Public Media:

Hobbs is running a relatively muted campaign and of course by comparison to Lake, former television personality, it was always going to be difficult to top I think for Hobbs.

But I think her campaign would argue that she's trying to focus on the fundamentals. She's not holding big rallies. She's trying to reach voters, at the doorstep on the phones, trying to win votes that way. And I think that's a point Democrats are trying to make is, they're trying to create a contrast between Hobbs who's a social worker, who has been a legislator and is now Secretary of State, and the Lake who has never been in government before.

They're hoping to draw a contrast that will cast Hobbs is really the candidate with the most experience who's most able to govern. And I think the question going forward is going to be if this focus on fundamentals is running a moral low key campaign is really going to be enough. I think there are some Democrats and some independents who want Hobbs succeed. Who would argue it's not enough given the stakes of this race.

Geoff Bennett:

And Kari Lake, we mentioned she's a Trump supporter. She's also unknown election denier. And last weekend on CNN, she made some headlines for refusing to say that she would accept the results of her own election in Arizona if she lost.

Dana Bash, CNN Chief Political Correspondent:

Will you accept the results of your election in November?

Kari Lake, GOP Arizona Gubernatorial Candidate:

I'm going to win the election and I will accept that result.

Dana Bash:

If you lose, will you accept that?

Kari Lake:

I'm going to win the election and I will accept that result.

Geoff Bennett:

How is the issue of accepting election results, whether it's in the presidential race, or the governor's race? How was that factoring into the — into that contest? How was it resonating?

Andrew Oxford:

A lot of Democrats in Arizona would argue that that is the issue in this race, right. They would argue that the slate of Republicans running this year is extremists. This is not John McCain's Republican Party anymore. Right. And that democracy itself is on the ticket.

Curious though, how many Republicans we actually are able to see Democrats peel off in this election, much as Trump was able to convince a lot of Republicans who maybe didn't like him to come along and support him ultimately, because they reasoned that he was at least closer to them on policies that they cared about than his Democratic opponents. I think we're seeing many Republicans in Arizona make a similar calculation.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, let's shift our focus now to the Senate race, because Blake Masters is another far right candidate, somebody who was opposed America's involvement back in World War II. He suggested that the attack on the Capitol on January 6 was a false flag operation designed by the FBI.

The Democrat in that race, Mark Kelly, the current sitting senator, he has a small but shrinking lead over Masters. Why has Masters been able to make this race more competitive, even though objectively he has flaws as a candidate?

Andrew Oxford:

I never expected this race would be a blowout, right? I think it was always bound to be close. Arizona is not a blue state. Arizona is — Arizona is complicated. We have two Democratic U.S. senators. Yes. Joe Biden won the state in 2020. But he only won by about 10,000 votes. Mark Kelly won his race in 2020 by just a couple of percentage points. That's the key though, right? Mark Kelly outperforms Joe Biden. And that's what he's got to do, again this election year if you wants to hold on to this seat.

He's had some success at being able to establish himself as or define his identity sort of separate from politics. Here in Tucson, people know him, you know, Gabby Giffords husband, or they know that he's an astronaut. And I think he's going to have to continue to convince enough Republicans and independents that he is separate and apart from a lot of things that frustrate them or turn them off about the Democratic Party.

Geoff Bennett:

You know, to your point, Senate races typically aren't as closely tied to the president standing as House races are. And as you mentioned, Mark Kelly trying to create some space between himself and President Biden. That's particularly true on two key issues, the economy and immigration. He's called — Kelly has called the southern border a mess.

How are those two issues, the economy, inflation and immigration? What are voters saying about those two issues? And based on your reporting?

Andrew Oxford:

Well, let's talk about inflation and the economy. I mean, that's one that I see Kelly running ads about right now. It is a central issue here in Arizona. I think one of the appeals of Arizona to a lot of folks who move here is that we've long been able to say that this is a really affordable place to come and live to come and retire. A lot of Arizonans now are finding that but that's just not the case. Rents and home prices are rising here, just as they are in other parts of the country. And that's really taking a bite. That's an issue that candidates have either party or having to speak to I think if they want to really convince independent and Republican voters to give them a look.

Geoff Bennett:

Andrew Oxford is a politics reporter for Arizona Public Media. Thanks so much for being with us, Andrew.

Andrew Oxford:

Thank you.