Indo-Pacific Commander discusses rising tensions with China, future of the region

Judy Woodruff:

The U.S. government labels the People's Republic of China, or PRC, as one of its greatest challenges, even more so now as Beijing flexes its military prowess with an unprecedented buildup.

The U.S. military command responsible for China, North Korea, the entire Pacific and all the way to the border with India is known as the Indo-Pacific Command.

Nick Schifrin traveled to Hawaii to meet its commander.

Adm. John Aquilino, Commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command:

I never articulate the threat as a single nation.

Nick Schifrin:

Admiral John Aquilino is based in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, and his command covers half the world's population.

We're about a stone's throw from Pearl Harbor. Are you concerned that we're at the most dangerous point since World War II?

Adm. John Aquilino:

I do see the current strategic environment as really dangerous, the most dangerous time I have seen in 38 years. This is based on, A, the largest military buildup that we're seeing in history, both conventional and nuclear.

Number two, the unprovoked illegitimate war in the Ukraine, 63 missile launches out of the DPRK, unprecedented, the most in history, to include a potential nuclear capability and a desire to have nuclear capability. And then you add one additional piece, and that is a no-limits policy articulated by the leaders of Russia and the PRC.

Nick Schifrin:

No limits cooperation.

Adm. John Aquilino:

No limits to their cooperation. That's concerning. That's a different world.

This is about two incompatible visions for the future, right, free and open and a legacy of liberty, or you look at an authoritarian, closed, opaque, and a tradition of tyranny. That's the choices that have — that nations might have to make in the future.

Nick Schifrin:

Chinese fishing boats, warships and aircraft regularly harass other countries in the region. How do you think you're already competing with China?

Adm. John Aquilino:

I think what you articulated is behavior that we see often, the inability to operate in accordance with the rule-based order, the coercion of allies, partners and friends that are in the region, economic, militarily, and then, to your point, whether it be fishing vessels or other capabilities, right, these behaviors destabilize the region.

Nick Schifrin:

Xi Jinping has never renounced using violence to unify with Taiwan.

And he specifically said, by 2027, when the People's Liberation Army, PLA, turns 100, that it will have — quote — "enhanced capacity to safeguard China's interests."

Do you believe that, by 2027, China will have the capacity to invade Taiwan, if it wants?

Adm. John Aquilino:

President Xi Jinping has tasked his military department to deliver the capabilities that he might need, should he decide to take a choice of force by 2027. He's said it in open space.

So, I believe that they will execute the orders of their president.

Nick Schifrin:

Secretary Blinken put it this way.

He said: "Beijing has plans to pursue unification on a much faster timeline."

Again, does that give you a sense of urgency?

Adm. John Aquilino:

We have a sense of urgency in everything we do.

And we do that because of those actions that we see executed in the region. We see concern from the failure to adhere to agreements that applies to Hong Kong. We certainly have concern, based on lethal actions on the Line of Actual Control with India. We have to have a sense of urgency in order to deter any follow-on actions.

And, oh, by the way, we at INDOPACOM need to move faster. We, the U.S. government, need to move faster.

Nick Schifrin:

In response to Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August, we saw Chinese missiles fly over the island for the first time, bracketing the island.

And we saw the Chinese navy operate on the eastern side of Taiwan. China at the time said it was creating a new status quo or wanted to create a new status quo. Do you think it has?

Adm. John Aquilino:

I think the intent for the PRC is to always move forward in a way that would help them achieve their end state of unification of Taiwan. That is certainly their strategic objective.

What I would say is, our actions and efforts will continue to ensure that we can meet responsibilities under the Taiwan Relations Act in order to enable any peaceful resolution as agreed to by people on both sides of the straits free of coercion and force, right? The critical portion of this is the free of coercion and force. And what I think we saw was the threat of force and coercion.

Nick Schifrin:

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act mandates the U.S. government provide Taiwan weapons to maintain a — quote — "sufficient self-defense capability."

The act is ambiguous about how the U.S. would respond to a Chinese invasion. But President Biden has reduced that ambiguity.

President Biden has said on multiple occasions that the United States would come to Taiwan's defense. Are you ready today to come to Taiwan's defense?

Adm. John Aquilino:

The United States military force in the Pacific is ready for all contingencies.

Nick Schifrin:

Do you think you will be more or less ready to respond in five or 10 years, given the steps you're taking, but also the steps that Beijing has taken?

Adm. John Aquilino:

Nick, we're going to be ready. We will be ready. There is no caveat on more or less. You're either ready or you're not. And, in the future, the United States will be ready.

Nick Schifrin:

Including on Taiwan?

Adm. John Aquilino:

The United States will be ready for any contingency that the military is told to execute.

Nick Schifrin:

Do you think Taiwan is taking the steps it needs to defend itself?

Adm. John Aquilino:

In the wake of this illegitimate and illegal war that the Russians have waged on Ukraine, I think what it did is, it highlighted to the people around the world that the potential exists for action by adversaries, especially when you talk about authoritarian governments, that one person can decide whether to invade or not.

So, what I believe is that the people on Taiwan have seen that. I think they should learn from that and take the actions that are going to be required to defend themselves.

Nick Schifrin:

What are the lessons do you think that Taiwan should take from Ukraine?

Adm. John Aquilino:

What I tell you is what I learned.

And that is, the actions and responsibilities under the Taiwan Relations Act, we probably need to go a little faster.

Nick Schifrin:

What does that mean?

Adm. John Aquilino:

That certainly means that the capabilities and the training that are required to defend the island, we should certainly ensure they are received, so the defense industrial base should be able to deliver those capabilities that the Taiwans have purchased.

Nick Schifrin:

American weapons bought by Taiwan, including artillery and Stinger missiles, have been delayed because of us production limits.

The U.S. is pushing Taiwan to purchase smaller weapons that could help repel a Chinese invasion, instead of big-ticket systems that Taiwan used to prefer.

China has increased its nuclear capacity. And, according to the Department of Defense, it will yield about 1,500 nuclear weapons by 2030. How does that make you what you do militarily more difficult?

Adm. John Aquilino:

What's going on in the PRC to accelerate and deliver that capability and capacity in the time that you just articulated, that's a nuclear buildup.

And all the nations are concerned about it, as they should be.

Nick Schifrin:

What we have got behind us is the B-2.

A few minutes from Aquilino's office, he shows me a visiting B-2 bomber and the U.S.' most advanced fighter jets. Aquilino wants to have a dialogue with his Chinese counterpart, but he won't pick up the phone.

Adm. John Aquilino:

It's very important for me to be able to have communications with my counterpart. If there were ever an event, for he and I to be able to talk and potentially de-escalate and keep anything from turning into a real problem, that's certainly beneficial.

But I have been working towards having that event now for almost a year-and-a-half. We have yet to be able to schedule it. It was never scheduled, so it was never cut off.

Nick Schifrin:

But you have been trying to schedule it, and they haven't replied?

Adm. John Aquilino:

We haven't been able to set it up. They haven't accepted the request yet.

Nick Schifrin:

This year, China's neighbor North Korea, officially called the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or DPRK, has launched an unprecedented number of tests. It says it has nuclear weapons that can reach the continental U.S.

Adm. John Aquilino:

So it certainly destabilizes and threatens not only the United States, but our allies and partners, when you think about South Korea, and Japan.

That capability, either conventional or nuclear, is concerning. Now, that said, the United States, South Korea and Japan have come together to both operate together, to do trilateral response options, to ensure all of our homelands are protected, and to deter any future actions.

So it's concerning that the provocative action by the DPRK continues and no sign of slowing down.

Nick Schifrin:

Admiral Aquilino, thank you very much.

Adm. John Aquilino:

Thanks, Nick.