Republicans on the state of the party and Trump’s role in it

Judy Woodruff:

Meantime, questions over Republican leadership extend far beyond Congress, with much of the debate focused on the influence, as we have just been discussing, of former President Trump that he holds in the party.

Laura Barrón-López has more on the divide between Republicans and what comes next.

Laura Barrón-López:

Last week's midterms brought mixed results for the former president and his endorsements.

Nearly all of Trump's handpicked candidates for governor and Senate in key races were defeated, including candidates who centered their campaigns on Trump's 2020 election lies. But even as votes for this election are still being counted, Trump appears to be looking ahead to another run for the White House and is expected to announce his 2024 presidential bid in a prime-time speech tonight.

Here to assess the state of the Republican Party and Trump's role in it, I'm joined by Barrett Marson. He's a Republican strategist based in Phoenix. And Daniel McCarthy, editor of "Modern Age: A Conservative Review."

Daniel and Barrett, thanks so much for joining us.

Barrett, to start with you, last night, the race for governor in Arizona was called. Democrat Katie Hobbs defeated Trump-endorsed Republican Kari Lake for governor. That follows a number of other Republicans who lost statewide, like Blake Masters and Mark Finchem.

So what's your takeaway from the results in Arizona and nationally?

Barrett Marson, Republican Strategist:

Well, absolutely, the takeaway, Laura, here is, Arizona is a conservative state. It just is not a Trump state.

Arizona still bleeds red, but Trump has annoyed, disenfranchised, really turned off voters who are in the — right-leaning independents, moderate Republicans, and the John McCain Republicans, who absolutely refused to vote for Kari Lake and Blake Masters and Mark Finchem.

Laura Barrón-López:

Daniel, prior to the election, you wrote in a New York Times op-ed that: "The Republican Party's embrace of apparently high-risk candidates is a sign of confidence, not weakness. The party's voters feel strongly enough about the populist, pro-Trump positioning that they have supported those candidates over more experienced and less controversial figures."

Given the results of the midterms to date, do you still stand by that assessment?

Daniel McCarthy, Editor, "Modern Age: A Conservative Review": I do.

But, of course, my timeline was off. I think the populist right has made some important gains in the midterms with the election of J.D. Vance. And even the candidates who fell short, people like Blake Masters in Arizona, did very well in an election year that actually has sent mostly incumbents back into office.

Blake Masters, a 36-year old, got about within five points or so of knocking off an incumbent senator. So I actually think that the momentum is still on the populist right at the moment, and that Donald Trump, as well as a candidate like Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, can claim a victory here.

Laura Barrón-López:

Daniel, sticking with you, Trump is, as we said, reportedly expected to announce his bid, or at least tease a run for the presidency tonight.

At the same time, the former president has continued to lie about the 2020 election results and this year's election results, calling it rigged against candidates he supported. He could also very well face potentially some criminal charges for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

Is he what's best for not just the Republican Party, but also the country?

Daniel McCarthy:

Well, Donald Trump's success as president, the fact that he was the first president in several administrations who could not get us into a new war, the fact that he was able to preside over a very good economy up until the COVID pandemic hit, all of these things commend Donald Trump as someone who should actually return to office.

And, as for his belief that he had won the 2020 election, of course, he also believed that he won the popular vote in 2016. So, he has a perception of elections that's rather different from that of everyone else. Nevertheless, that didn't really affect his role as president.

And I think, if he got reelected, he'd also be very good. And I do think that the Republicans right now, they need to have the kind of energy that Donald Trump brought to them in 2016. And they need to focus on the issues that Donald Trump highlighted in 2016, such as immigration, foreign policy, and a trade policy that's going to be good for the working class in this country.

And Donald Trump is still, I think, the best champion for those issues.

Laura Barrón-López:

Daniel, just to be clear, do you think that the continued spread of election lies by the former president is ultimately harmful to the country's democratic system?

Daniel McCarthy:

No, I think the country's democratic system is very robust.

You have candidates on both sides, in both parties who like to complain about elections that they lose. We have had Democrats in the past challenge electoral counts in Congress. And we have had, of course, candidates like Stacey Abrams in Georgia who have been Democrats who have lost elections who've nonetheless claimed that they had the election stolen from them.

So I think Donald Trump is par for the course in American politics whenever you have a closely divided country and very close elections.

Laura Barrón-López:

One big difference there, though, is that the former president's lies ultimately resulted in the violent insurrection on the Capitol on January 6.

But, Barrett, do you have anything to add before we move on?

Barrett Marson:

Well, no, other than one of the — Daniel talked about some of the enthusiasm that Donald Trump brings.

But Ron DeSantis brings that same enthusiasm, sans the baggage that Donald Trump brings. So he is a viable alternative and an exciting alternative to the Trump brand.

Laura Barrón-López:

And, Barrett, as you just noted, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, is looming large over tonight's announcement.

And a number of Republican lawmakers have already said that they would prefer he be the nominee potentially come 2024. Do you see a difference, though, other than what you just mentioned on baggage, in policy and politics between DeSantis and Trump?

Barrett Marson:

Oh, I don't believe that there's much difference between their policies.

It's really about personality. Donald Trump has really gone oh for three in Arizona. He won Arizona, but with less than 50 percent of the vote in 2016. He lost Arizona. Kari Lake has lost Arizona. So, at no time did Donald Trump or his handpicked gubernatorial candidate get over 50 percent here in Arizona.

But I will tell you, Ron DeSantis would probably get an outright victory by at least 10 points in Arizona if the election were today. He excites people without the baggage.

Laura Barrón-López:

Ten points, wow, that would be a lot in Arizona.

Daniel, what do you make of Ron DeSantis' potential support among the base of Republicans nationally?

Daniel McCarthy:

He clearly has a lot of support among intellectuals, among consultants, among people who have an insider understanding of politics.

What remains to be tested is how popular he is outside of Florida among grassroots voters. We know that Donald Trump is someone who packs in rallies, that he's someone who has an enormous amount of personal charisma, an enormous amount of voters who feel closely tied to him.

Ron DeSantis, I think, starts from a very strong position. But if he and Trump are go head to head, I think there's a chance for a certain amount of fratricide here. Indeed, the two candidates do have a lot of similarities in terms of their issues. And that's going to be a very stressful circumstance for voters who may like both of these candidates, but, if they go head to head, will only be able to choose one of them.

Laura Barrón-López:

And, Daniel, I wanted to get your response to this clip from Senator Pat Toomey. As you know, he's the retiring senator from Pennsylvania, and his seat just flipped blue.

Here's what he had to say about the midterms.

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA):

Candidates that were seen as ultra — all about the previous president and relitigation — relitigating the last election, they went down in flames, even in many cases where conventional Republicans, including conservative Republicans, were winning big.

Laura Barrón-López:

What's your response to Senator Toomey? And, also, do you think that the Republican base is still with the former President Trump?

Daniel McCarthy:

Yes, I think the Republican base is still very much with Donald Trump, although he's never been tested by someone quite like Ron DeSantis.

As far as Senator Toomey's remarks are concerned, it seems to me that this was an election where you had incumbents of all ideological stripes, including very populist ones, like Ron DeSantis, including conventional Republicans, as well as, of course, a great many Democrats, they all won reelection.

It was a very tough year for challengers. And the fact that some Trump-like challengers, people like J.D. Vance in Ohio, succeeded, the fact that others, like Blake Masters and even Kari Lake and others, did very well for candidates who have no experience and are first-time contenders for office, I think all of that actually shows quite a bit of momentum for the Trump movement as a whole.

Laura Barrón-López:

Barrett, very quickly, I wanted to ask.

You mentioned that Arizona is not a Trump state, even though it's a conservative state. So, where does the Republican Party in Arizona go from here?

Barrett Marson:

You know, that is going to be the question that will soon be decided when the state party selects a new chairperson.

Kelli Ward has been an absolute disaster for the Arizona Republican Party. It is time to move beyond her and to bring back a winning style in Arizona. And that's just not a Trump style. It's a conservative, but reasonable mix here in Arizona that — where Republicans get over the finish line.

Laura Barrón-López:

Barrett Marson, Daniel McCarthy, thank you so much for joining the "NewsHour."