Russia begins massive military exercises in Belarus, escalating tensions with Ukraine

Judy Woodruff:

Russian military drills that began today in Belarus involve 30,000 troops and are expected to take place over 10 days. Naval drills are also being conducted in the Black Sea.

The exercises come as more than 100,000 Russian troops surround Ukraine and as crisis diplomacy continues in Moscow, Berlin and Brussels.

Nick Schifrin starts our coverage with a look at today's movements in Belarus on the Belarus-Ukraine border.

Nick Schifrin:

With tanks, artillery, missiles capable of reaching all of Ukraine, and its most advanced jet, Russia's Belarus military exercises are the largest since the Cold War.

It's a display of military might near the border with Ukraine and just a few hundred miles from the capital, Kiev. And past the sailboats off annexed Crimea, Russian ships hold naval drills. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry today said those ships make Black Sea navigation virtually impossible and are part of Russia's hybrid war.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Defense Ministry prepared in case of a shooting war. Just north of Crimea, soldiers practice securing an enemy-occupied building. Ukraine uses drones from NATO member Turkey that have successfully targeted Russian tanks in previous conflicts and, to a rock soundtrack, show off American Javelin anti-tank missiles that senior U.S. officials say are now deployed to key transit points.

But, at the same time, diplomacy continues. In Berlin, mid-level officials from Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia met in a format that's focused on the front lines of the 8-year-old conflict in Eastern Ukraine.

In Moscow, British Foreign Minister Liz Truss visited Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and, at first, the diplomacy was relatively diplomatic.

Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister (through translator):

Relations can be normalized only through mutually respectful dialogue, an equal dialogue, and dialogue based on recognition of each other's legitimate interests, a search for mutually acceptable solutions.

NLiz Truss<, British Foreign Ministerb>:

The reality is, we cannot ignore the buildup of over 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and the attempts to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Nick Schifrin:

But after their meeting, in a press conference:

Sergey Lavrov (through translator):

I'm honestly disappointed that what we have is a conversation between a dumb and a deaf person. They say Russia is waiting until the ground freezes like a stone, so its tanks can easily cross into Ukrainian territory. I think the ground was like that today with our British colleagues, from which numerous facts that we produced bounced off.

Nick Schifrin:

After that, Lavrov exited stage left, leaving Truss standing alone. There was friendlier choreography in Brussels between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

Johnson said Putin's endgame was still unknown, but British intelligence was grim.

Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister:

This is probably the most dangerous moment, I would say, in the course of the next few days, in what is the biggest security crisis that Europe has faced for decades.

Nick Schifrin:

In response to that crisis, British troops today arrived in Poland and U.S. equipment redeployed to NATO member Romania.

Senior officials tell "PBS NewsHour" they're worried about any Ukraine conflict spreading into NATO, as State Department counselor Derek Chollet suggested in Bucharest.

Derek Chollet, State Department Counselor:

Clearly, Romania is facing acute threats from the situation unfolding not too far away from here with the Russian escalation.

Nick Schifrin:

And to discuss that escalation of Russian troops massing on the Ukraine border, I'm joined by Michael Kofman, a senior fellow for Russian studies at the CNA, Center for Naval Analyses.

Michael Kofman, welcome back to the "NewsHour."

We have got a map that shows how Ukraine is really surrounded from the north in Belarus, from the northeast, from the southeast, and from the south in Crimea.

What's your assessment of the Russian buildup right now?

Michael Kofman, Center for Naval Analyses: The Russian buildup is entering a fairly advanced stage.

You have seen troops arrive and actually grab prepositioned equipment. There is a sizable Russian deployment in Belarus just north of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. There are a lot of Russian troops both northeast and east of Ukraine. And there's a fairly sizable Russian deployment in Crimea.

Plus, there are additional ships along the way, amphibious assault ships that are bringing even more troops to reinforce the Russian forces in Crimea. So what you're beginning to see are kind of what look like the final stages of a very sizable military buildup, a military that is positioning itself to be able to conduct a large-scale military operation.

Nick Schifrin:

And last time we spoke, about a month ago on this show, you pointed out how a lot of the hardware was in place, but the personnel wasn't quite in place yet.

Are that — is that personnel now in place?

Michael Kofman:

Yes, that picture very much has changed.

So we have seen personnel arrive, grab their equipment, move much closer to the Ukrainian border towards final staging grounds, begin to conduct exercises that bring the personnel up to higher readiness levels. You have seen a lot of tents deployed in field camps with troops in them, right?

A lot of logistics have shown up, the kind of things that you would see a military bring that's not necessarily preparing for an exercise, but more than likely is positioning itself for an operation, everything from medical, fuel, ammunition, communications, these kinds of elements.

You have seen aviation shift over, aircraft, helicopters. And you have seen troops come very close to the borders. That equipment that in the past we saw based maybe 200, 300 kilometers away from Ukraine, kind of staging there, they have grabbed that gear and they have gone down to maybe within 30 kilometers of the Ukrainian border at this point.

Nick Schifrin:

One other element of the presence that senior officials I talk to are very worried about is electronic warfare, Russia's ability to cut off Ukrainian cell phones, Internet, satellites.

How large, how real is that threat?

Michael Kofman:

It's very real.

You have seen the Russian military bring all sorts of different types of electronic warfare systems, some fairly high-level. They're accompanying the various units that have deployed there. And Russians are quite advanced in electronic fire operations, as they call them, information operations.

And so you could see a combination of both cyberwarfare, which is likely to have some effects, but, more importantly, electronic warfare, both kind at the tactical level, but also fairly high-end systems that might have some strategic effects as well.

Nick Schifrin:

We were focused on the exercises today in Belarus. We saw that at the top of the story.

And I want to go back to another map to show why people are so concerned about those troops in Belarus, the fear of troops in Belarus coming down toward Kyiv in a pincer move, surrounding Kyiv, U.S. officials I talk to very worried about that.

What does that say about Russia's intentions?

Michael Kofman:

Sure.

Those scary red arrows that you have on the map are actually a fairly realistic depiction of at least one of the likely Russian courses of action. That is that they intend to encircle the Ukrainian capital and impose regime change, perhaps install a pro-Russian regime or change the constitution.

You're also likely to see a fairly large incursion by Russian troops both south from Crimea, the Crimean Peninsula, and also in the east, perhaps enveloping the bulk of Ukraine's forces, which are currently deployed in the southeast along the line of control opposite the Donbass, that is, the occupied separatist territory.

So you're likely going to see a fairly sizable Russia incursion, potentially, across the Eastern regions of Ukraine, looking to envelop or cut off a large number of the Ukrainian military that is based there.

Nick Schifrin:

Now, senior U.S. officials who I talk to are as concerned as they are, given the things that you're describing, and the capacities of Russia that are on the border, but they do say that Vladimir Putin has not made a final decision yet.

And, certainly, the U.S., the West, in what they say is a united way are trying to come up with a Russian off-ramp. But those things that the West are offering Russia are far from what Russia's core demands are.

So do you see any possible diplomatic off-ramp in this moment?

Michael Kofman:

I have sadly been pessimistic all along looking some months out at this.

And I have seen the likelihood for diplomacy to succeed is not very good, fairly slim. Now, of course, I agree. We don't know if Vladimir Putin has made a decision. That's very true. Is there a chance for diplomacy to succeed? Well, I think the window for it is unfortunately closing, right?

It's not necessarily the Russia has to conduct a military operation now that they have deployed, but they do appear to be increasingly in a sort of go-or-no-go posture, so they're likely to make a decision in the coming weeks, not months. And by weeks, I mean only a few weeks.

So far, in terms of what we have seen on public diplomacy, I have not witnessed anything that gives me optimism. Now, it is a fair chance that, behind the scenes, there's some kind of backdoor diplomacy taking place that none of us know about. And maybe there's some movement there.

Russia can always back down. Vladimir Putin can sort of take what he's been given on the table, declare victory, and pull back from the border. However, I find this a fairly unlikely scenario. And I'm worried that I might be right about my pessimism going into this.

If you recall our conversation months ago, a lot of the indicators I suggested that would tell us that they are serious about military operation and this — a renewed invasion of Ukraine, they have all shown up, literally almost every single one of them.

So, we are now looking at a very different Russian force posture.

Nick Schifrin:

Michael Kofman, I'm going to have to leave it there.

Michael Kofman, Center for Naval Analyses, thank you very much.

Michael Kofman:

Thanks. My pleasure.