Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Biden’s campaign strategy

Amna Nawaz:

President Biden traveled to swing state Pennsylvania over the weekend, as the 2024 races are gearing up.

For analysis, we turn now to our Politics Monday team. That is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Good to see you both. Thanks for being here.

So, the 2024 race is certainly heating up on both the Republican and the Democratic sides. I just want to play a little bit of what we have seen from President Biden this weekend. Here he is delivering his message to voters in Pennsylvania over the weekend.

Joe Biden, President of the United States: Under my predecessor, infrastructure week became a punchline. On my watch, we're making infrastructure a decade headline.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

Amna Nawaz:

So, Tam, you got the first broadcast interview with Mr. Biden's campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, since she took on that role.

What did you learn about their reelection strategy at this point in the campaign?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

They are working hand in hand with the Democratic National Committee in a way that past Democratic campaigns and even the Obama campaign certainly did not.

And that goes all the way down to, literally, I interviewed Julie Chavez Rodriguez in her office that was sparsely decorated in DNC headquarters. The way it was described to me is that the DNC is the chassis, and then the Biden campaign will come on top of it as the race car going around the track.

But, right now, they feel pretty confident in the way that this chassis is built, in part because they didn't go through the typical boom-and-bust cycle that the party has gone through the past. They have invested really heavily in the party infrastructure.

And what does that look like? What does that mean? That means that they sent money and resources and ere making calls, had Democratic volunteers from all over the country making calls into Wisconsin for that state Supreme Court race. And the Democratic-supported — the Democratic Party candidate, supported candidate, won in that race.

But, also, they were able to test out the strategies that they will be using in the presidential campaign and in Senate races and in House races and races up and down the ballot, testing out strategies for reaching voters and actually reaching them and getting them to go out and vote.

Amna Nawaz:

So, Amy, let's talk about some of those voters they need to reach.

You had a really interesting look at one segment in particular, which is Latino voters, the fastest growing electorate in America.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Right.

Amna Nawaz:

How is the Biden coalition doing there?

Amy Walter:

Well, this survey of Latino voters, looking at how they voted in 2022 in battleground states, and then who didn't vote in 2022, and what do we think we know about those voters?

And that, to me, was the most interesting findings of this survey is those voters who showed up and voted in 2020, again, Latino voters in battleground states, but didn't vote in either midterm, they are — lean a little bit more Republican than they do Democrat. And on the issue of the economy — and this is what was really interesting, I thought, about the president's speech this weekend and Philadelphia focusing a lot on the economy.

These voters, they give on the issue of inflation Republicans a 13-point advantage. But when you ask the question of who do you think looks out for the wealthy, who do you think looks out for working people, Democrats have a huge advantage on that question of looking out for regular people or working people.

And I think that's what you're going to see the Biden campaign do with these swing voters. That's why, in his speech, he didn't talk about Donald Trump, he didn't talk about democracy, he didn't talk about abortion. He talked about jobs and the economy, jobs and the economy.

When inflation is still as high as it is, I don't think the Biden campaign is going to be able to convince people that they shouldn't worry about inflation. It's going to be a top issue. But what you do when the economy is not doing well, and people don't think you're doing a particularly good job as the president…

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

… you make the issue of the economy about more than just the economy, who's looking out for you and your family, and even if you're feeling a little bit stretched by the economy versus this party or this candidate who's not looking out for you.

Amna Nawaz:

I want to take a look at the latest Democratic polling as well, because, of course, Mr. Biden is the incumbent, but he's not the only candidate.

Amy Walter:

Right.

Amna Nawaz:

And I want to get your take on this, because, obviously, Marianne Williamson has also declared her candidacy, and also Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., you see right there, polling at 17 percent, still far behind Mr. Biden's 70 percent.

But this is someone, Tam, who has been pushing conspiracy theories when it comes to vaccine efficacy, on election fraud as well. What does it say to you that he's actually polling in double digits right now among Democrats?

Tamara Keith:

What it says is something that we have been talking about on this — in this segment for a very long time, which is that there is a share of the Democratic Party who maybe likes Joe Biden, but doesn't want him to run again.

And it's very clear that they do not want him to run again. And so you throw a couple names out there. Kennedy's a name people recognize. They say, OK, Kennedy. It's not necessarily that his campaign is taking off in any way. It's more of a place for people to go who are concerned about President Biden's age, who didn't think he was going to run again, who don't want him to run again.

And what I will say, though, is, as we talked earlier about the Democratic Party and that whole party infrastructure, that is set up to make sure that President Biden does not have a legitimate or real or anything-to-worry-about primary challenge, because there are not going to be debates.

Amy Walter:

Yes, but there is — I mean, I would be wary of feeling as confident if I were the DNC or the Biden campaign, only in that your point is, there's an incredible amount of ambivalence.

It's in the polling that we have here at the "NewsHour." We see a significant portion of the Democratic electorate saying, I wish there was somebody else.

And so what I'm sort of surprised by is the fact that outside groups — again, I don't think the Biden campaign will do this — but groups supporting Biden haven't gone out and tried to make a contrast with RFK Jr., in talking about some of the things you talked about, Amna, about his positions on vaccines, but also the fact that he's being supported or at least showing up on podcasts of conservatives that I think many Democrats would find not to their liking.

Amna Nawaz:

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, we have a current field of declared major candidates of 10 people so far.

hat this point, they are chasing the current front-runner of former President Donald Trump, who's solidified his support, despite facing federal charges. And that's leading to a lot of uncomfortable and persistent questions of all the other candidates, like this exchange with former Vice President Mike Pence over the weekend.

CHUCK TODD, Moderator, "Meet The Press": If you were President Biden, would you pardon him right now?

MIKE PENCE (R), Presidential Candidate: I just think this whole matter is incredibly divisive for the country. And, look, I just think, at the end of the day, it's — it is — it is saddening to me that we are now in this moment.

Amna Nawaz:

Tam, we know this trial is not likely to wrap up before the election. Can the candidates actually steer conversations back to policies and their priorities?

Tamara Keith:

Well, some of them don't want to.

Some of them want to be out there defending Trump, but then saying, however, do you really want this drama? I think that they are all still trying to figure out a way to run against him without actually running against him, because his voters are quite loyal. His voters feel that he's been mistreated.

So it's almost like they want to be able to go out and say, Trump derangement syndrome is real, but do you really want to have to deal with that for four more years?

Amna Nawaz:

Amy, what's your…

(CROSSTALK)

Amy Walter:

Well, and I think that's what they're trying to figure out.

The difference, to me, in talking to Republican strategists this time around versus 2016…

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

… in 2016, there was so much confidence: Oh, don't worry, we have got Trump. We figured this out.

Now they are. They're basically saying: We don't know what's going to work.

But I think, essentially, the message will come down to this from Republicans who'd like to beat Donald Trump: It's not so much that he can't win the election. It's that if he wins the election against Joe Biden, he won't be able to get much done because of all of these reasons. The deep state is going to come after him. The media's going to continue to go after him. The Justice Department, it won't — it'll be his Justice Department. Whatever.

There will be — there will be other issues that will make it impossible for him to win. But I think, fundamentally, the reason so many of these candidates aren't breaking through is that they haven't given a reason yet to voters who may be curious. They're not making a compelling case for why they should be the one to be the nominee.

That's the challenge going forward for them.

Amna Nawaz:

Still plenty of time.

Amy Walter:

Plenty of time. Got plenty of time.

Amna Nawaz:

It's very early. We can't say this enough.

(LAUGHTER)

Amna Nawaz:

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, thank you so much. Good to see you both.

Tamara Keith:

Good to see you.