Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Russia’s actions in Ukraine, COVID-19 mandates

Judy Woodruff:

In Ukraine, President Biden is confronting the most significant foreign policy challenge since the withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer.

Geoff Bennett is back for analysis of the political consequences of Russia's actions.

Geoff Bennett:

Judy, as we reported earlier, President Biden today reacted swiftly to Russian President Vladimir Putin declaring he would recognize the independence of two breakaway regions in Eastern Ukraine, possibly using the move as a pretext for an invasion the U.S. has warned was likely coming at any hour.

As President Biden focuses on the Ukraine crisis, he is faced with a looming political consequences at home that could have a major and long-lasting impact on Democrats' ability to maintain their power in Washington.

Here to discuss that and more, I'm joined by Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

And, Tam, I want to start with you, because National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan this morning, he warned that Russia could be prepared for a conflict even more brutal than some initial estimates.

And from the start of this Ukraine-Russia crisis, the Biden administration has been aggressively transparent in declassifying intelligence and sharing it with the American people, really trying to telegraph Putin's next steps.

What is behind that strategy?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio :

And it's not just the Biden administration. Allies in Europe have also been releasing intelligence about what they say Putin is up to.

And part of this was to make it more difficult on Vladimir Putin, so that he couldn't get away with, for instance, a false flag operation. The Biden administration kept coming out with intelligence, saying, no, we think that Putin is planning this, we think that they might do it this way, as a way of signaling ,no, you should not do this.

I will say that Senator Ted Cruz, Republican Senator Ted Cruz is out with a statement criticizing that strategy, saying it didn't work. And, clearly, this is escalating in Ukraine right now.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, a question about the domestic — potential domestic political consequences here.

I talk to White House officials. They say that politics aren't factoring into their foreign policy decisions around Ukraine, but they are keenly aware of how President Biden's political opponents are looking to leverage whatever move he makes here. What are the domestic political consequences he's facing as you see it?

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Yes, Geoff, it's a good question.

And, look, this president now comes into this crisis in very different political shape than he came into, say, the Afghanistan situation, the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. When he came into office, he had a plurality of Americans who said they thought he was going to be a good commander in chief. They trusted sort of the way he would deal with a crisis.

Once we got post-Afghanistan, those numbers dropped. Now you have pluralities and even a majority of Americans saying they don't think he will be able to handle a crisis particularly well. They don't think that he is doing well as a commander in chief. So, he doesn't have the same depth, that same well of goodwill to draw from that he did earlier. So, I think that's an important thing to understand.

And the other piece of this is, there could be a domestic impact. Normally, things that happen overseas, they don't have an immediate impact on our domestic lives. In this case, the cost of oil is going to potentially be significant. The president has already warned Americans that we could see an increase in energy prices.

This is coming at a particularly perilous time too for the president and, of course, for consumers, who are already spending sending a great deal of money on gasoline. And so it could have a just another pinch for Americans, who are already spending a great deal of money on gasoline. And so it could have a just another pinch for Americans who are feeling that inflationary pressure in their everyday purchases.

Geoff Bennett:

All right, let's shift our focus now to COVID and this nexus of politics and public health, because, Tam, as you know, you have got at least 11 Democratic governors and the mayor of Washington, D.C., they have started lifting mask mandates in schools or other indoor settings over the past month, while the federal government is still following the CDC guidance, which recommends indoor masking in all settings. The CDC, as we have reported, they're expected to revise that as early as this week.

But what does this all mean for this widening gap between state and federal policy and then state and CDC policy? What does this all say about the politics of COVID right now?

Tamara Keith:

Oh, this is an incredibly challenging time in the pandemic and politics, because the numbers are falling really fast.

And the Biden administration, the president, the White House have repeatedly made it clear to me in public — in public and in private to me that they are sticking with the CDC guidance. So, whatever the CDC does, the White House will be following their lead.

But the CDC does not move at the speed of politics. And so you have someone like Governor Murphy, who I spoke with in New Jersey. And one important thing to point out is that Governor Murphy said he was looking at the numbers. He says he's sick of COVID. Everybody is sick of COVID. You don't need a poll or a focus group to tell you that people are done.

But he said his decision wasn't based on those politics, but, rather, based on the sheer numbers, that the cases are falling every single day in his state. They were hit early with Omicron. And so those cases have been falling for about more than a month now.

And so what he did, though, and what many of these governors have done is, they have set a date that is a little ways off. In New Jersey, it's early March. So, it's not immediate. They are waiting for the numbers to fall further. They have set a date. They have identified an off-ramp.

It's entirely possible that the CDC guidance will actually catch up with these Democratic governors by the time all of their policies go into effect. The experts I talk to, though, say the most important thing is figuring out and projecting forward what the on-ramp would be if, unfortunately, there is another variant that causes concern, or if the boosters wane in their effectiveness, that politicians were not so great a year ago at saying that things may change, and that, this time around, they need to be clear with the public that, even though we may be moving into something that feels like a really nice phase, that may not be the end of the story.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, in the couple of minutes we have left, to Tam's point, Democrats say they are following public health guidance and making these recommendations.

But it's also helpful politically too. I mean, I think Democrats learned that lesson after they lost the gubernatorial election in Virginia, in part over COVID protocols and masking in schools, and not necessarily the substance of the policy, but just really the way that they talked about it, Democrats talked about it.

Amy Walter:

That's right.

I mean, the big difference, of course, between governors and the president is, most of these governors are up for reelection this year. Obviously, the president is not. And I think there also is a reason for the administration to feel a little snakebit about calling for the end of mask mandate or getting ahead of the CDC.

We all remember July of 2021, when the president went out on the lawn of the White House, saying we're independent — we have independence now from COVID, we're moving forward.

I went back and looked at some of that content of that speech. And it was really much like, we're past this now. We're going to live our lives. Kids are going to go back to school.

Well, obviously, that didn't happen that way. And so if you are going to go get ahead of the CDC, the administration has to be thinking, boy, we don't want to have to go and backtrack again, much like we did in July.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes, it's a good point. Three years into this pandemic, I think politicians have learned not to predict where things will head next.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

Tamara Keith and Amy Walter, our thanks to you both.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.