Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the Jan. 6 probe and Republicans’ political ambitions

Judy Woodruff:

Former President Donald Trump will be returning to the nation's capital this week for the first time since he left office. This comes just days after the January 6 Committee wrapped up a summer full of hearings, putting Mr. Trump at the center of a conspiracy to subvert the results of the 2020 election.

To talk about all the politics here, I am joined by our Politics Monday duo, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Hello to both of you on this Politics Monday. Very good to see you.

So, let's talk about that January 6 Committee. They did wrap up their eighth hearing, Amy, last week, the end of the summer run, end of the summer run. We may — we're going to hear more in September.

How well — how good a job do you think they have done laying this out? And, by the way, they just in the last 24 hours have put out another video showing the day after January 6 how the former president was still reluctant to say that these — to separate himself from the rioters.

There was a line they showed: "I want to be very clear, you do not represent me. You do not represent our movement."

He crossed it out. He wouldn't say it.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Well, he also said in that statement that he had immediately sent the National Guard and other law enforcement in when this started, which obviously was also untrue.

Judy, I guess it's defining how effective it has been in different — in different ways. If it's, was it effective at changing people's minds, people, how they felt pre this hearing and today, it doesn't look like many minds have been changed?

So this is from the Marist/NPR/"NewsHour." Do you think — this question was asked first in December of 2021. Was the — was January 6 an insurrection, a threat to democracy?; 49 percent said yes then. The most recent, just 50 percent say yes, so not a lot of movement there.

How responsible is Trump for what happened at the Capitol?; 43 — or 45 percent in July. I'm sorry — 43 percent in January said it was a big deal, he had a great deal to do — only 45 percent now, so not a whole lot of movement there.

But when you talk to Republicans, whether it's activists or even just rank-and-file voters that we're listening to in focus groups, what you start to hear is a wariness, a weariness, maybe Trump fatigue setting in, not so much that they don't like him anymore. They still do, and they don't support the January 6 commission.

But what they're starting to pick up is the sense that, boy, voting for Trump again comes with a lot of baggage. And there are plenty of other Republican candidates out there who want to run for president who have all the Trumpism without this baggage.

Judy Woodruff:

So maybe it's having some impact? Is that what we're seeing, Tam?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Certainly, it could be having some impact.

I think that it is going to be hard to tell, because there have been other times over the last five, six years that there has been Trump fatigue among Republicans, that there has been an establishment Republican effort to take out Donald Trump. And then they haven't been able to mount enough of — to mount enough of a force to get behind one person that could be an opponent to him to actually be able to take him off the political scene, because there are lots and lots of Republicans, rank-and-file Republicans, who say, oh, back in the day, I wish he wouldn't tweet so much.

And they will vote for him. Someone like Bill Barr, the former attorney general, who said that the former president's claims about election fraud were B.S. He didn't use that term, but said that, if he was the nominee, he'd vote for him again.

So I think that what the committee is trying to do, what Liz Cheney argued, the leading Republican on the committee, but someone who believes that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy, what she argued is that his behavior on January 6 itself and in the lead-up to it means that he shouldn't be allowed to be elected again.

Have they convinced rank-and-file Republicans, primary voters? It's not clear.

Judy Woodruff:

And to the point that people are skeptical that he will be held accountable, I noticed also in the poll you saw half of Americans said they thought he had committed a crime. But what is it? More than 60 percent said he won't — he's not going to be — he's not going to be prosecuted.

Tamara Keith:

Well, there's a reason people believe that. He's been Teflon. He's been impeached twice and not convicted.

There was the Mueller investigation. I mean, if the public is following the cues of the past, then there's no reason for them to believe that this time would be different. That said, NPR has confirmed that Marc Short, the vice president's chief of staff, has been called before a grand jury in Washington, D.C.

There are indications that there are investigations that are getting more serious, even outside of this congressional investigation, which could lead to policy change, but is not intended to lead to prosecution, per se.

Judy Woodruff:

And then meanwhile, Amy, as we were saying earlier, former President Trump coming to Washington, first time since he left, and right after the — or right after the day he left office, to speak at this conservative conference.

His own former Vice President Mike Pence was due to speak there today, causing all of us to start to look again, as Tam suggests, at, how are these Republicans lining up as we think about 2024? Here's a piece of that poll we have just been talking about looking at favorability among these party leaders among just — now, this is just Republican voters — 77 percent Donald Trump, 65 percent Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 59 percent Pence, and, by the way, Liz Cheney bringing up the rear.

Amy Walter:

Right, down…

(CROSSTALK)

Judy Woodruff:

She may be vice chair of the committee, but she's not first in the hearts of Republicans.

Amy Walter:

The remarkable thing too about the DeSantis number is that he's the governor of Florida and he has — that's a pretty large number for somebody who just recently came onto the national scene.

He comes up in conversation too again with rank-and-file Republicans as somebody that they like. So he has certainly broken through. The thing about Pence, his — folks around him believe that there is a lane for him, that there are enough Republicans out there who want to see somebody who supported the — again, the policies of Donald Trump, doesn't come with the baggage of Donald Trump, or want to see somebody who has real evangelical, conservative values, comes from that wing of the party.

But we just don't really see much evidence that voters, Republican voters, are hungry for a Mike Pence candidacy. You hear a little back and forth. I mean, the fact that he has a 59 percent suggests they don't necessarily dislike him, in the way they see — in the way they feel about Liz Cheney, but they're also not tripping over themselves excitedly to support him.

Tamara Keith:

And I'm not saying crowd size matters, but Trump and Pence held rival events in Arizona over the weekend. Trump had a rally with several thousand people. Pence held an event that wasn't meant to be a rally.

It was like a regular old boring campaign event for a gubernatorial candidate at an employer in Arizona, a couple hundred people, very different tone, very different mode. That's obviously reflective of who they are, but also reflective of the fact that Trump just gets people excited, gets his voters excited still.

Judy Woodruff:

Even with the January 6 going on.

But it is — Amy, it's just — the committee, drip, drip, drip of information.

Amy Walter:

Yes. That's right.

Judy Woodruff:

But we're going to — we have got over two years now for voters to sort out what they think about him and the other Republicans.

Amy Walter:

That's right.

And we have potentially legal action in Georgia and the Department of Justice as well.

Judy Woodruff:

Exactly.

And, meanwhile — that's right. There's the Atlanta…

Amy Walter:

That's right, which seems to be moving along at — we don't know where this is headed, of course, but we do know a lot of the names that have been brought in front of the grand jury.

So we could be looking at something before we hit 2024 from a legal perspective. What's also interesting, as Tam brought up, about Arizona, the Pence and Trump camps are also fighting these proxy wars with different candidates, Trump, of course, against the sitting governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, and Pence for him, and, in Arizona, supporting different candidates.

Judy Woodruff:

Yes. We're watching these all over.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Judy Woodruff:

Subject for another Politics Monday.

Amy Walter:

Yes. Soon.

Tamara Keith:

Indeed.

Judy Woodruff:

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, thank you both.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.