Ukraine marks Independence Day as Russia strikes civilian targets

Amna Nawaz:

As we reported earlier, it was another day of grisly attacks on civilians in Ukraine, as Russian forces struck a train station in the central region of the country, killing and wounding dozens.

That strike coincides with Ukraine's Independence Day and comes exactly six months since the start of the war. It was a stark reminder of the brutal fight already waged and the battle ahead.

Residents in Kyiv but woke to the usual wails of air raid sirens, but an unusual parade featuring destroyed Russian tanks rolled through downtown, as Ukraine marked its first Independence Day since Russia's invasion, a show of defiance six months into the war.

In a poetic address to his nation, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy promised victory.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President (through translator):

A new nation that emerged on February 24 at 4:00 a.m., not born, but reborn, a nation that didn't cry, didn't scream, didn't get scared, didn't run away, didn't give up, didn't forget. This flag will be everywhere it should be by right, both in Donbass and in Crimea.

Amna Nawaz:

But the war has been costly. In Western Ukraine, another tearful goodbye to a fallen fighter. The past six months have been brutal and bloody, Mariupol now a city obliterated, a theater sheltering women and children bombed, a maternity hospital attacked, and the suburban town of Bucha the scene of Russian war crimes, with residents, including children, killed and dumped in mass graves.

According to the United Nations, 5,587 civilians have been killed and 7,890 have been injured between February 24 and August 22. A third of Ukraine's 41 million people have fled their homes, 6.6 million now living as refugees across Europe. Ukraine's armed forces report almost 9,000 Ukrainian military personnel have also been killed in the war.

The losses are heavy on the Russian side too, but casualties are a state secret. U.S. intelligence estimates that some 15,000 have been killed so far. Western sanctions have hit hard. Last month. Russia defaulted on its foreign bonds for the first time in a century, but Russia's oil revenues have increased by 11 percent in June, as Europe struggles to phase out Russian oil.

The United States, with its NATO and E.U. allies, all continue to stand behind Ukraine. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson met President Zelenskyy in Kyiv and vowed to continue helping Ukraine fight Russia.

Boris Johson, British Prime Minister:

If Putin were to succeed, then no country on Russia's perimeter would be safe. And, if Putin succeeds, it will be a green light to every autocrat in the world, a signal that borders can be changed by force.

Amna Nawaz:

Russia launched the war by attacking Ukraine from the north, south and east, headed toward Kyiv, but was pushed back by Ukraine.

Six months on, intense fighting continues along front lines in the country's east and south. Russia has now occupied nearly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. But even as the war enters a prolonged phase, Ukraine says victory is the only option.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy (through translator):

And we will put our hands up only once, when we celebrate our victory, the whole of Ukraine, because we do not trade our lands and our people. For us, Ukraine is all of Ukraine.

Amna Nawaz:

To further discuss how Ukraine will use this latest package of U.S. weapons assistance, where the war stands now and how it may evolve, we turn to Keir Giles. He's a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, the London-based policy institute.

Keir Giles, welcome. And thanks for joining us.

We are marking six months in a war that wasn't supposed to last this long. I mean, many people thought it would be over within a matter of days.

When you think back six months ago, did you think the war would still be going on today?

Keir Giles, Chatham House:

No.

I was one of those people that was surprised that Russia did not fight the war that it had been training and equipping itself for, and instead blundered into entirely the wrong kind of conflict and fighting it the wrong way, and was repulsed by this dogged Ukrainian resistance.

I thought that Russia would complete the conflict in a number of days in exactly the way that they had been practicing and gearing up to do. So the fact that Ukraine now, six months down the track, is still celebrating its Independence Day as an independent nation is a terrific achievement.

And let's not forget part of that, of course, is through Russia's own self-inflicted injuries and the way that they have fallen victim to their own propaganda in the very early stages of this conflict, thinking that Ukrainians would greet them with flowers, instead of Javelins.

Amna Nawaz:

You mentioned Ukraine being able to repulse that initial Russian advance.

But what is the landscape today? Have we seen a meaningful counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces?

Keir Giles:

Well, a counteroffensive, particularly in the south in that Kherson region, has been promised now for weeks.

And a lot of people are disappointed that they're not seeing the front line moving, they're not seeing these Ukrainian advances pushing Russian forces back. Now, Ukraine argues that the counteroffensive is taking place in a different way, all of this erosion of Russian military power by striking deep behind Russian lines, by targeting logistics, airfields and so on is, in fact, Ukraine fighting back.

And, of course, Ukraine has to be sure that, when it does mount finally a move to push Russia out of those occupied regions, it can do so without being observed by Russia, without being targeted by Russian artillery.

So the preparation work that we see going into Ukraine's attempt to liberate its occupied territories should be expected to last for some time yet. Of course, in a way, it's already been successful. The promise of an offensive in the south has drawn Russian troops away from where they were advancing in the east of the country in the Donbass region, where those advances have stopped.

So, in a way, Ukraine has already succeeded.

Amna Nawaz:

So, the front line seems as if it's static, right? Correct me if I'm wrong.

Is Russia continuing to seize any additional territory at this stage?

Keir Giles:

The front line has been surprisingly static for a considerable amount of time now. But, of course, that doesn't mean that military operations aren't continuing.

Now, this war has been through several very distinct phases, and it's lurched from despair to optimism for Ukraine along the way. And what marks this current phase is the way in which Ukraine can reach out and touch areas which Russia might have thought were safe.

It's those long-range strikes deep into the rear which, of course, are having an effect not only on Russia's fighting potential, but also on Russians themselves. We shouldn't underestimate the psychological impact when people who are on beach holidays in Crimea suddenly see that they are not in a safe area, and reality collides with the picture they have been sold by Russian state television of what Russia calls as the special military operation, which, according to Russia, is going perfectly according to plan.

Amna Nawaz:

What about this latest round of U.S. support, $3 billion in security assistance, President Biden announced today, the largest aid package in the six months of war?

Is it enough?

Keir Giles:

There will never be enough to be — to satisfy all of Ukraine's demands and everything that Ukraine could absorb.

The simple fact of high-intensity warfare ongoing in Europe means it could suck in vast amounts of military equipment from all of the NATO militaries, and still possibly not be satisfied.

But what Ukraine has demonstrated is that it can field military support extremely rapidly. They're fighting a desperate war of national survival, and so any assistance that is provided gets used in the most effective way, in the most rapid way possible.

At the same time, of course, you have to plan for the long term, because, even if this current conflict is resolved, there have to be longer-term plans for ensuring that Ukraine can defend itself against Russia in the future as well.

So, while it's tempting to interpret some of the supplies that have just been announced in this most recent tranche as preparing Russia for the current offensive that everybody's been expecting, of course, we keep — need to keep an eye to the longer term as well.

Amna Nawaz:

So what about that longer term?

I mean, U.S. officials, European officials continue to say, Putin's theory of victory here is that he can wait everyone out, that, eventually, U.S., NATO, E.U. support will dwindle. Do you think that risk is there?

Keir Giles:

In a way, that's the same risk as Ukraine has faced right from day one of this conflict or even beforehand.

It's keeping all of Ukraine's backers and supporters in Europe and in North America onside, so that they can provide the support that's needed. And, of course, that's not just the military support and weapons supplies. It's also economic and humanitarian support to keep Ukraine functioning as a state and the Ukrainian economy going while it's under this stranglehold by Russia.

Now, all of that is going to become even more a challenge as we head into winter and the real effect of the price spikes in energy that have been brought about by Russian energy blackmail make themselves felt among European populations.

It's going to be harder and harder to resist Ukraine fatigue, and, most importantly, to resist those calls for Ukraine to make some kind of concession, some kind of agreement to a cease-fire to end the fighting and relieve the economic pressure on the rest of the world.

For Ukraine, of course, that would be disastrous, because it would effectively the surrender and abandoning those occupied territories and the people who live there to this brutal Russian oversight.

Amna Nawaz:

Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, joining us tonight, thank you for your time.

Keir Giles:

Thank you.