Voters will decide critical statewide ballot measures in midterm election

Read the Full Transcript

• Amna Nawaz:

  For many voters this year, the focus has been on contests for governor, senator or local representatives. But there is a lot more at stake in the midterms.

  Laura Barrón-López explains.

• Laura Barrón-López:

  Voters in 36 states will decide on more than 120 statewide ballot measures this election. The future of abortion access, health care, and even voting itself is on the ballot.

  Reid Wilson is the founder and editor of Pluribus News, a digital news outlet that launched this month to cover public policy in the states.

  Reid, thanks for joining us.

  When abortion was on the ballot in Kansas, voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would have allowed for a ban on the procedure. Now there's five more states that have a ballot measure on abortion in November. Those include California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, and Vermont.

  What stands out about those measures to you?

• Reid Wilson, Founder, Pluribus News:

  Well, I'm watching two of those five states that you mentioned. They're very likely to pass in California and Vermont, but Michigan is a swing state. And I think Michigan is going to be instructive about what's coming down the line next year, the year after that, five years down the road.

  If putting an abortion measure on the ballot in Michigan drives turnout, especially for Democrats, I think you're going to see that come on the ballot in basically every state where the initiative process is a part of the political process.

  On the other hand, in Kentucky, like Kansas, a very conservative state, if an abortion ban were to fail, I think that would be a serious red flag for Republicans and those who oppose abortion rights as they go forward.

  This is really going to be a fight that takes place in the state legislatures. But I think we're going to see it on more and more ballots, because both sides think they have an upper hand.

• Laura Barrón-López:

  That's right. And the president today was saying that this could very well reach Congress by next year.

  So, also, over in South Dakota, there's Medicaid expansion on the ballot. Voters have previously approved Medicaid expansion in some six other states. But South Dakotans are going to decide whether about 45,000 people get this access. So what stands out to you in this measure?

• Reid Wilson:

  This is one of the last fights over the legacy of the Affordable Care Act that President Obama signed.

  All of this, the Democratic-controlled states and even some purple states have expanded Medicaid — even some red states have expanded Medicaid to cover those who make up to 138 percent of the federal poverty line. This is the — one of the last options that proponents of Medicaid expansion have to expand Medicaid through a ballot initiative.

  The vast majority of other states that allow ballot initiatives have either already acted on this or are so conservative that they're probably — they probably won't.

• Laura Barrón-López:

  And if that measure actually passes, then it'll also cover a number of Native Americans in the state who don't have health care access right now.

  I want to talk about ranked-choice voting, because that became really popular after the like Alaska special election this year. And the big swing state considering that is Nevada, with several cities and counties across that — across the country also.

  If it's adopted, what will it look like in Nevada vs. other states?

• Reid Wilson:

  So, every state has a different version of ranked-choice voting. In Nevada, it would be a top number of candidates who advance. It's not — it's not exactly everybody who shows up.

  But the top candidates who get votes in a primary — I think it's the top four — would advance to a general election, who are then decided by a ranked-choice system. So, you vote for the candidate you like the most. If that candidate comes in last, then your second choice vote gets reallocated as a first choice. They continue doing that ranking until somebody gets 50 percent plus one.

  The theory is, it is a way to bring more people into the electoral process, and it's a way for people to express their opinions beyond just the two major parties. Interestingly enough, there's a lot of opposition in Nevada from minority groups, who think that it will hinder their ability to elect a candidate of their choice in minority-heavy districts.

  The supporters of ranked-choice voting push back on that. They say that's not the case. But we will see. So far, the experiments have taken place in Maine and Alaska, which are two pretty homogeneous states.

• Laura Barrón-López:

  I'm originally from California, and the top two vote-getters that precede on can sometimes become chaotic.

  Also, marijuana, this year, five states have it on the ballot. Those include Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota, and South Dakota. And President Biden has talked about decriminalizing the drug. That's not the same as legalizing it, which allows, clearly, industries to build it up.

  Where do voters in these states fall on the issue of legalizing marijuana?

• Reid Wilson:

  Well, this is a fascinating test, because those five states that you mentioned, four are very conservative states.

  What we see here is this phenomenon of red states voting on marijuana legalization because supporters of marijuana have been so successful in all the other states where access to the ballot is available, where the ballot initiative is a part of the political process. So there are fewer and fewer states now where the public has the option to legalize marijuana.

  That means the next round of fights are going to take place in state legislatures. And it's not unheard of these days for a state legislature to approve legal marijuana. It's happened in Vermont. It happened in New York and New Jersey. It could be going to red states next. It is not the third rail that legalized marijuana once was just a few years ago.

• Laura Barrón-López:

  Across the 130 ballot measures, what's your big takeaway? And how could they impact voter turnout come November?

• Reid Wilson:

  In a number of cases, including the Michigan abortion case that we talked about, these ballot measures may drive turnout to the polls, who is likely to show up to vote in November.

  One of the things we saw after the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs striking down Roe v. Wade is that the number of younger voters, especially younger women, signing up to vote ballooned. It jumped absolutely through the roof. So, in a lot of these states, if we see those younger women turn out to vote, that will be a sign that they are activated by these — some of these initiatives.

• Laura Barrón-López:

  All right. Well, Reid Wilson, thank you so much for your time.

• Reid Wilson:

  Thanks for having me.