A war on multiple fronts: Despite ceasefire, military conflict escalates in eastern Ukraine

HARI SREENIVASAN, PBS NEWSHOUR WEEKEND ANCHOR:

That shelling attack that killed dozens of people today in Eastern Ukraine was only the latest sign of the deteriorating situation there.

Even though a ceasefire was signed in September, fighting between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian government troops once again has intensified. And yesterday, the rebels launched a new offensive.

For more, we are joined via Skype by Andrew Kramer of The New York Times. He is reporting tonight from the regional capital of Donetsk.

So, Andrew, for most Americans we thought this was a conflict that was somewhat resolved.

There was, of course, a cease-fire but it was over. But in the past week, you have been talking about and reporting on a war on multiple fronts.

ANDREW E. KRAMER, THE NEW YORK TIMES:

That's right. Thank you for having me on the show.

Conventional wisdom seemed to hold that the economic crisis in Russia would encourage the Russian government to take a softer line in Eastern Ukraine, but what we've seen in the last week is quite the opposite.

Now, Russia, of course, formally, does not support the separatist movement here militarily. Nonetheless, we see statements of support for their actions and we see a major military escalation over the last week.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

When you say "military escalation", is this similar to Crimea where you have unmarked uniformed troops rolling in, in tanks?

ANDREW E. KRAMER:

I've seen tanks on the streets of Donetsk. It's impossible to ascertain where they came from precisely.

The rebels have not taken new ground in months and yet they have more military equipment than they did when the cease-fire was signed, at least impressionistically from what I see.

Now, the Donetsk People's Republic claims to be operating separate from Russia and the assertion is that any Russian who's fighting in Eastern Ukraine is doing so as an individual, as a volunteer and maybe even on vacation, but certainly not as an active member of the Russian army.

There has been a very aggressive stance on both sides really. There has been shelling from the Ukrainian side into the city of Donetsk.

A bus stop was hit recently with tragic consequences. Going the other way, there has been shelling from the rebel side into Ukrainian held areas today. Of course, there is this disastrous shelling in the city of Mariupol.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

So, this has been one of the least-effective cease-fires in recent history. The U.N. estimates more than 1,000 people have been killed after it was signed.

And now, are these rebel forces emboldened by the fact they have this military support coming in from Russia?

ANDREW E. KRAMER:

I think that's the case. Without the Russian backing, the separatist movements would have crumbled or struck a deal long ago.

Now, they say they want to expand their boundaries and ultimately achieve a more sustainable mini-state here in Eastern Ukraine.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

So, what about the leverage that the West has? I mean, we've had — the sanctions have been in effect.

It's squeezed Russia's economy. The price of oil has tumbled. We don't really have any more levers to pull.

ANDREW E. KRAMER:

There could be additional sanctions. That seems unlikely, given the sanction fatigue in Europe.

Other than that, there's only hand wringing. Most Western governments have said they will not join this fight militarily, given Russia's strategic importance and nuclear weapons.

And at this point, there are not a lot of breaks on the rebel movement here in Eastern Ukraine. We have attacks on the Donetsk airport, on the city of Mariupol, and more on Donetsk on a railroad and road hub that is very vulnerable at this point.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

All right. Andrew Kramer, joining us via Skype from the regional capital of Donetsk, from Ukraine, thanks so much for joining us.

ANDREW E. KRAMER:

Thank you.