What European Union membership would mean for war-torn Ukraine

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• Amna Nawaz:

  The European Union's executive arm today recommended putting Ukraine and its smaller neighbor Moldova on paths to E.U. membership. This comes after the U.S. and Europe pledged earlier this week to further support Ukraine militarily and as the war grinds on.

  John Yang has the story.

• John Yang:

  In the southern port city of Mykolaiv, another residential building crushed by Russian shelling. After nearly four months of war, destruction and death seems endless, in the east cities, strewn with rubble.

  A Russian rocket hit this bomb shelter in Lysychansk, once a cultural center where 40 people took refuge. At least four of them were killed. Shell-shocked residents are hanging by a thread.

• Vira Miedientseva, Lysychansk Resident (through translator):

  What is going to happen to us? We don't know ourselves what is going to be tomorrow. This war has to be finished.

• John Yang:

  The twin city of nearby Severodonetsk has been besieged for weeks. On Russian state TV, Moscow showed off his handiwork at the Azot chemical plant where hundreds of civilians shelter underground.

  Severodonetsk remains the focus of fighting in Eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces aim to capture the entire Donbas region. Ukrainian officials say hundreds of their soldiers are killed each day.

  But, in Kyiv today, a show of support. In his second surprise visit, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson offered to train up to 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers every 120 days.

• Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister:

  We are here once again to underline that we are with you to give you the strategic endurance that you will need.

• John Yang:

  And in Brussels, a morale boost for Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc should consider Kyiv as a candidate for membership in the E.U.

• Ursula von der Leyen, President, European Commission:

  Ukraine has clearly demonstrated the country's aspiration and the country's determination to live up to European values and standards.

• John Yang:

  European leaders tried to present a united front this week, as the French, German Romanian and Italian leaders visited President Zelenskyy for the first time since the war began. They toured Irpin, a town outside Kyiv hammered by Russian forces, and brought with them a message of solidarity.

• Emmanuel Macron, French President (through translator):

  You can count on us. Ukraine can count on us. Europe from the first day of this war has clearly chosen its side, that of a free and sovereign Ukraine.

• John Yang:

  But E.U. leaders have been divided over what victory in Ukraine should look like, hinting at a cease-fire.

  Macron has even said Russian interests should be considered. Kyiv has criticized the bloc for a perceived lack of unconditional support. Still, Zelenskyy urged them to stay united.

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President (through translator):

  Russian aggression against Ukraine is aggression against all of Europe. Our response must be united.

• John Yang:

  NATO defense ministers also met in Brussels this week, pledging to send Ukraine more weapons and boost its forces in Europe's eastern flank.

  At the annual International Economic Forum in Saint Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin hit out at the West.

• Vladimir Putin, Russian President (through translator):

  They think the domination of the West in global politics and economics is constant and eternal. But nothing is eternal.

• John Yang:

  But, for these Ukrainian soldiers defending their country's eastern front line with everything they have got, Ukrainian nationalism is eternal.

• Mykola, Ukrainian Soldier (through translator):

  We are a strong nation. We will prevail you. Victory is ours.

• John Yang:

  For more on these developments and Russia's four-month-long invasion of Ukraine, we're joined by Jeremy Shapiro, research director for the European Council on Foreign Relations. He was on the State Department's policy planning staff during the Obama administration.

  Mr. Shapiro, thanks so much for joining us.

  What's the significance, the European Union beginning the process of E.U. membership for Ukraine? What's the significance of that?

  Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director, European Council on Foreign Relations: At the moment, the significance is mostly symbolic.

  It shows a great deal of solidarity with Ukraine. And it's a message that the Europeans are sending to both Russia and Ukraine that they are with Ukraine and that they are going to do their utmost to support them. But it's a long term process. And it probably won't make any immediate difference on the battlefield in any way.

• John Yang:

  You talk about European solidarity with Ukraine. There has been some question about that, about whether some European nations wouldn't prefer a quick settlement of this war, even if it meant Ukraine giving up some territory to Russia.

  Did this visit with the leaders of France, Germany and Italy dispel any of that?

• Jeremy Shapiro:

  I'm not sure I'd go so far as that it dispelled that, but, certainly, there was no hint of that in the visit.

  In no way shape or form that they signal that they were pressuring the Ukrainians in any way to settle this war, which is a little bit, as you point out, at variance with some of the hints that President Macron of France and Chancellor Scholz of Germany have given in the past.

• John Yang:

  The headlines coming out of Ukraine every day are about fighting, Russian bombardment, buildings being destroyed, lives being destroyed.

  Are there negotiations going on? And is it possible that that could lead anywhere?

• Jeremy Shapiro:

  There is some level of negotiation going on? As I understand it, there is there is some contact between the Ukrainian and Russian side. But I wouldn't say that there's any real negotiations going on.

  There was some effort at that in March, but, really, nothing has progressed since then. I think that sort of scale of the Russian atrocities that has been demonstrated since then have made it very difficult for the Ukrainians or anyone else to negotiate with the Russians.

  And so there's really very little happening. And there's massive disagreements in any case on what that settlement would look like. But, at the same time, I think we need to understand that nobody knows how to get out of this war except through a negotiated settlement.

• John Yang:

  Should there be a limit to the United States' support for Ukraine in this?

• Jeremy Shapiro:

  President Biden likes to say that the support is unlimited, but that doesn't really make a lot of sense.

  Obviously, the United States is not the same as Ukraine, and even if the United States is clearly in Ukraine's camp, it's not going to be willing to expand all of its efforts for Ukraine. Their interests are not distinct.

  And I think that the United States has had a lot of trouble sort of signaling to the Ukrainians that, while their support is real, while their support is meaningful — they have given, after all, well over $50 billion in assistance at this point, or at least promised — that their support is not unlimited, and that Ukrainians also need to be thinking about how to get out of this war.

  But that hasn't really — that is not a message, I think, that has come across as yet.

• John Yang:

  If the Biden administration were to suggest to the Ukrainians that there should be a negotiated settlement, what would be the contours of that?

  What would be the goals that the United States would urge Ukraine to, I don't want to say settle for, but would be acceptable?

• Jeremy Shapiro:

  Well, the United States has outlined that the goal of the war is to protect Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.

  They have further pointed out that they are not going to force the Ukrainians into any settlement. And I think that they mean that. But, as I said, the degree of U.S. assistance gives them the right to express an opinion on what the contours of that settlement might be.

  And I think what they would want to be thinking about is, first of all, a status for Ukraine. The Ukrainians floated a neutrality status to the Russians in March. They would also want to be thinking about security guarantees that could be provided to the Ukrainians by the United States, by other Western allies, and perhaps by Russia, in order to guarantee that neutrality and to guarantee Ukrainian territorial integrity.

  And then, in the most difficult — the most difficult area of all, I think that the — that the that they would want to be thinking about how to resolve the territories that are being occupied by Russia. There is absolutely no agreement on that front at all.

  And I think it's very difficult to understand even what the U.S. could ask of the Ukrainians. It would be quite difficult to ask them to give up territory that is — that rightfully belongs to Ukraine. But one could at least imagine a formula that, while not in any way giving up Ukrainian claims, at least puts those territories into — to the side and allows them to have some sort of cease-fire, where they can then negotiate the final status of those territories.

  It's important to emphasize that we're very far from that right now. And the U.S. is not asking the Ukrainians to do that and may never do so. But, ultimately, if the war wants to get — if we want to solve the war through a negotiation, we are going to have to at least start to look at those issues, even though many people think that it is wrong to even talk about them.

• John Yang:

  Jeremy Shapiro at the European Council on Foreign Relations, thank you very much.

• Jeremy Shapiro:

  Thank you.