Why West African nations are seeing a spate of military coups

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• John Yang:

  In just three years, six West African nations have seen the military seize control of the government. While there are unifying factors running through these coups, Ali Rogin tells us that looking at each case individually helps explain what's going on.

• Ali Rogin:

  The countries are laid out like a belt hugging a northern stretch of the African continent. From the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, Africa has seen a domino effect of political uprisings across these six nations. Five of them are former colonies of France. They gained independence in the late 1950s and early 60s, but anti-French sentiment still runs high there today.

  Russia, meanwhile, has capitalized on that attitude, spreading anti-Western propaganda throughout the region. The mercenary Wagner Group, run by former Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin until his presumed death this week, has fighters on the ground in Mali and Sudan.

  But focusing on foreign influences ignores each country's internal politics and security, as well as the effects they have on each other. To discuss those elements, I'm joined by Kamissa Camara. She is a senior Africa advisor at the nonpartisan U. S. Institute of Peace and previously served as Mali's Minister of Foreign Affairs and as Presidential Chief of Staff.

  Kamissa, thank you so much for joining us. First of all, you heard the commonalities I just laid out. Why are they imperfect lenses through which to discuss this spate of coups? And are though any of these commonalities at all instructive in any way?

  Kamissa Camara, Senior Adviser For Africa, United States Institute of Peace: Well, the first commonality that observers usually mention is that all of these countries are former French colonies. We've had successful coups in Sudan recently, but also coup attempts in Guinea-Bissau, which is a country that was colonized by the Portuguese. We've had a coup attempt recently in Sao Tome and Principe same story. And so all of the three countries that I just mentioned have not necessarily been colonized by the French.

  But I believe that the reason why France is mentioned so often in the recent military coups in West Africa is because France, as a Western power, has been definitely extremely present in domestic politics, but also in security assistance. And so France has become the easy culprit.

  One overarching issue is definitely the security threat, the terrorist threat that we've seen in the region for the past 10 years and more. And because of this security situation, these countries have had to require international security assistance.

  And this has definitely played a role in how domestic politics have played out, but also how presidents have also used security as a way to strengthen their stature internationally.

• Ali Rogin:

  What background do these coup leaders have? Again, underscoring they are all different. These are all different countries. But some of the coup leaders you've mentioned actually know each other.

• Kamissa Camara:

  If we look at the places where they have been trained, there are definitely connections that have been made. Some of them knew one another. There's definitely a trio there, especially the Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea. And what I also want to highlight is that military coup leaders are very often portrayed as passive actors in the post-coup situation, which is definitely not the case.

  And as we've seen in the case of Niger, the Nigerien junta has made connections very quickly with the juntas in Burkina, in Mali and in guinea to seek their support in the case of a military intervention by the ECOWAS.

• Ali Rogin:

  As these coups have taken place, it seems like there have been increases in the amount of Islamist extremist attacks that occur that follow. Is there a connection there?

• Kamissa Camara:

  I have read many research that suggests that what happens on the front is that military officials and military leaders, the ones who are fighting, are actually demoralized by the fact of their leaders have become politicians, basically. And so they either refuse to fight or there is some sort of vacuum that takes place in the remote areas of the countries that definitely make these terrorist attacks increase intensity, but also in frequency.

• Ali Rogin:

  The presence of the Wagner group, as I mentioned, present in several countries we have seen people waving Russian flags in the wake of these coups. What is your response to that? Is the influence of Russia overstated in these cases?

• Kamissa Camara:

  It's always overstated. These Russian flags that you see right after a coup has taken place have been planted there. I have absolutely no doubt about that.

  I do not believe that Russia is an important player in this region. I believe that there is definitely a Russian propaganda at play. But culturally and even looking at these youth in West Africa, they speak French, most of them. They study in French, and they either want to immigrate to France or the United States. I do not see any of them queuing in front of the Russian embassy.

• Ali Rogin:

  Based on this recent spate of coups, what are your thoughts and hopes for the future of this region, especially when it comes to the overwhelmingly young populations?

• Kamissa Camara:

  Well, two things. The first what I'm seeing is that the democracy as we understand it in the west has not been that successful in some African countries, including the ones that have recently experienced the coup. And so, first of all, what I'm hoping is that the youth in these countries define their own path and design the institutions that they want to see.

  And my second hope is that we, as international partners, put our emphasis on the private sector, which will be able to create the jobs that will be needed in the next few years when these millions of youth will come onto the drug market seeking a better future.

• Ali Rogin:

  Kamissa Camara with the U.S. Institute of Peace. Thank you so much for your time.